Early Overvalued Wide Receivers (2020 Fantasy Football)
The 2019 fantasy football season has come to a close. For those that never let their foot off the fantasy gas pedal like me, 2020 preparation has just begun. Over the course of the month, I’ll be walking through all early renditions of potential over and undervalued running backs and wide receivers for the upcoming season. Second in this series is overvalued wide receivers. You can check out my article about overvalued running backs here.
DeVante Parker (MIA)
2020 ECR: WR16
This was finally his year. After years of expected breakouts falling short, Parker looked the part of a true WR1 in 2019. What is less known is how much he improved after teammate Preston Williams fell victim to injury:
- With Williams playing: 3.5 rec/game, 50 YPG, and 0.5 TD/game
- Without Williams: 5.5 rec/game, 100 YPG, and 0.6 TD/game
Wow, losing a competing wide receiver can make quite a steep difference. Also, note that the Dolphins were trailing in nearly all of their game scripts, putting them at the second-highest passing rate in the NFL. Maybe we can expect them to be just as bad in 2020 to keep up the passing rates? With little help from the run game, expect them to make additions at both running back depth and offensive line, which will help them be less one-dimensional in 2020. Both of those changes bode poorly for Parker, in addition to the return of Williams.
Early rumblings have Ryan Fitzpatrick returning for another season with the Dolphins. It also appears to be a foregone assumption that they will attempt to take a new signal-caller early in the NFL draft. Will they let Fitzpatrick keep slinging deep balls, or will they try to work in their young prospect? There are so many moving parts on this team that there will be safer options in the WR16 range.
Kenny Golladay (DET)
2020 ECR: WR9
Touchdown leaders without supporting touch volume are always strong candidates for regression. Golladay fits that mold well, as he led the league in 2019 with 11 receiving touchdowns. He should still see plenty of volume, but expecting that kind of red-zone opportunity year after year rarely works out. Every sixth catch, he was converting a touchdown. That’s just insane.
Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson will look to increase their target share, and the running game should have a little more life with Kerryon Johnson returning to the backfield. Golladay is still a great fantasy asset, but given the situation, it’s hard to see another top-10 finish from him without a notable increase in reception totals.
I think he’s a great player, but anytime we get ADP inflation from sky-high touchdown rates, that’s when we know the value likely isn’t there.
Keenan Allen (LAC)
2020 ECR: WR13
This receiving game has uncertainty written all over it. With Phillip Rivers’ time with the Chargers coming to an end, we don’t know exactly who will be throwing the ball to Allen come September. Remember what happened to Juju Smith-Schuster when Roethlisberger went down last year? Quarterback play and quality of targets matter. While Allen is undoubtedly a tremendous talent, getting the ball to a point where he can make a play will be up to someone not named Rivers.
On the flip side, Hunter Henry is a free agent, so whether or not he re-signs with the team is important to the remaining available target shares. Quarterback situation and Henry’s contract are the two most important factors to monitor here.
Julian Edelman (NE)
2020 ECR: WR23
It’s easy to forget that Edelman will be going on 34 years old next year, especially since he’s coming off an impressive 100-1,117-6 receiving season. Having a career year at 33 was tremendous value in 2019, but maintaining that value is another thing. N’Keal Harry will likely be much more involved in his year two and not knowing the situation surrounding Tom Brady provides a lot of unknowns. He’s already shown he can stand the test of time, but the risks going into 2020 are too high to feel comfortable taking him here. I’d much prefer the upside of similarly ranked players such as T.Y. Hilton, D.K. Metcalf, Adam Thielen, and Jarvis Landry.
Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.