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Most Accurate Fantasy Baseball Experts (2019)

Mar 2, 2020
Most Accurate Fantasy Baseball Experts

One of the great perks of modern life is the presence of true experts. Gone are the days where you’re on your own if your car breaks down – you can call a mechanic. Break your leg? Doctors train for years to be be able to make sure it heals properly. Need to prepare for your fantasy baseball draft? The internet is full of experts who will provide rankings so you don’t need to spend days researching. But who should you listen to? That’s where we come in. At FantasyPros we track the rankings of every fantasy baseball expert we can find, so that you can know whose advice to follow on draft day.

If you want to know the full details of how we evaluate experts, you can find the complete methodology here. The Cliff’s Notes version is this:

  • We look at each player’s VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) in a standard 5×5 roto categories league.
  • Each expert is graded on how closely they predicted the final player rankings.
  • Each position is evaluated separately, and overall accuracy standings are determined by adding together the positional scores.
  • The total number of experts participating this year is 69, with 64 qualifying for the overall leader board. (That is, 64 experts ranked players at every position.)

Now that that’s out of the way, it’s time to reveal 2019’s most accurate fantasy baseball experts. The full leaderboard is available in our Accuracy section.

Overall Expert Accuracy Standings

Top Fantasy Baseball Draft Experts
Rank Expert
1 Ariel Cohen – Fangraphs
2 Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Football Empire
3 Scott Pianowski – Yahoo
4 Tim McCullough – Baseball Prospectus
5 Todd D Clark – The Fantasy Fix
6 Jake Ciely – The Athletic
7 Andy Singleton – Expand the Boxscore
8 Tyler Thompson – Fantasy Six Pack
9 Heath Capps – Fake Teams
10 Frank Stampfl – RotoExperts

See the full field of experts (69 total) | Combine top experts into consensus rankings

This year’s winner is Ariel Cohen from Fangraphs, who you may know as the creator of the excellent ATC projection system. With baseball statistics being the mature science that it is, it may come as no surprise that a projection expert is also an excellent ranker. Cohen took first place with a comfortable margin, about three VORP points above second place. For context, the top 10 experts were all within about 15 points of each other. Cohen achieved this by ranking among the top 10 experts at a whopping five of eight positions – he was one of only two analysts to do so (the other was Jack Ciely of The Athletic). Ariel was in the top 10 for both SP and RP, as well as C, 2B, and most impressively, he was the #1 expert at 1B. At FantasyPros we believe strongly in the wisdom of the crowd, but Ariel was even wiser. His rankings were more accurate than our Expert Consensus rankings at every position except 3B and SS, and even there he was pretty close.

Congratulations are also in order for Jeff Boggis from Fantasy Football Empire in 2nd place and Scott Pianowski from Yahoo in 3rd, who were almost tied. Boggis was our top Outfielder expert, scored in the top 10 for SS and had three other top 20 finishes. Pianowski was our most consistent ranker, as the only expert to rate in the top 30 for every single position, including three in the top 10 and three more in the top 20. You can see each expert’s rank at every position here.

Top Experts by Position

We also like to recognize our top experts at each individual position. If you combined these experts at these positions, you’d have the best possible set of 2019 fantasy baseball rankings.

#1 Experts by Position
Position Expert
C Tim McCullough – Baseball Prospectus
1B Ariel Cohen – Fangraphs
2B Dan Harris – FantasyPros
3B Tyler Thompson – Fantasy Six Pack
SS Adam Rosin – FullTime Fantasy
OF Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Football Empire
SP Bobby Sylvester – FantasyPros
RP Site Projections – RotoChamp

 

Breakout Players

A fun thing we can do with our accuracy data is find the biggest breakout players – the fantasy-relevant players who exceeded their preseason rank the most – and find which experts had them ranked the highest. Note that the rankings below are at the position level and ECR stands for “Expert Consensus Rank”.

Player Pos. Expert Rank Actual ECR
Roberto Perez C Al Melchior – The Athletic 36 12 60
Christian Walker 1B Nando Di Fino – The Athletic 31 11 41
Eric Sogard 2B Ariel Cohen – Fangraphs 57 19 59
Gio Urshela 3B Ariel Cohen – Fangraphs 51 11 57
Kevin Newman SS Al Melchior – The Athletic 22 13 34
Yordan Alvarez OF Donkey Teeth – Razzball 107 36 165
Hunter Dozier OF Max Freeze – Freeze Stats 85 35 133
Jorge Soler OF Andrew Seifter – FantasyPros 43 10 76
Brett Gardner OF Tim Young – Brewer Rat 51 34 90
Trey Mancini OF Nando Di Fino – The Athletic 33 14 65
Chris Bassitt SP Brad Richter – DailyOverlay 134 48 214
Max Fried SP Andy Behrens – Yahoo 94 45 173
Lance Lynn SP Mario Mergola – Sporfolio 77 18 144
Lucas Giolito SP Nando Di Fino – The Athletic 51 13 136
Frankie Montas SP Nando Di Fino – The Athletic 89 46 167
Ryan Yarbrough SP Mario Mergola – Sporfolio 84 34 147
Brandon Workman RP Ariel Cohen – Fangraphs 168 5 233
Emilio Pagan RP Mario Mergola – Sporfolio 68 8 155
Liam Hendriks RP Mario Mergola – Sporfolio 46 2 115

 

Multi-Year Accuracy

Finally, we like to combine accuracy results from the past three years to recognize experts who’ve proven they can give consistently good advice year-over-year. You can find the full standings, including multi-year accuracy at each position, here.

3-Year Fantasy Baseball Draft Accuracy
Rank Expert
1 Tim McCullough – Baseball Prospectus
2 Andrew Gould – FantasyPros
3 Jace Ciely – The Athletic
4 Heath Capps – Fake Teams
5 Scott Pianowski – Yahoo
6 Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Football Empire
7 Steve Gardner – USA Today
8 Tyler Thompson – Fantasy Six Pack
9 Josh Shepardson – FantasyPros
10 KJ – Fantasy Team Advice

This concludes our 2019 fantasy baseball accuracy competition results. Congratulations again to Ariel Cohen from Fangraphs and all our top fantasy baseball experts!

Lastly, be sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook to stay on top of our latest updates and advice. We have plenty in store leading up to and during the baseball season. Stay tuned!

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19Josh Jacobs (LV)RB
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22Lamar Jackson (BAL)QB
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28Todd Gurley (ATL)RB
29Allen Robinson (CHI)WR
30Miles Sanders (PHI)RB
1Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)LF,CF
2Mike Trout (LAA)CF
3Christian Yelich (MIL)LF,RF
4Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
5Mookie Betts (LAD)CF,RF
6Trevor Story (COL)SS
7Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
8Gerrit Cole (NYY)SP
9Trea Turner (WSH)SS
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11Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
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13Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
14Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
15Jose Ramirez (CLE)3B
16Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
17J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
18Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
19Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)SS
20Anthony Rendon (LAA)3B
21Rafael Devers (BOS)3B
22Bryce Harper (PHI)RF
23Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
24Starling Marte (ARI)CF
25Jack Flaherty (STL)SP
26Javier Baez (CHC)SS
27Stephen Strasburg (WSH)SP
28Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
29Shane Bieber (CLE)SP
30Yordan Alvarez (HOU)LF,DH
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5Kevin Durant (BKN)SF,PF
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14Kawhi Leonard (LAC)SG,SF
15Chris Paul (OKC)PG
16Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
17Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
18Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
19Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Andre Drummond (CLE)PF,C
23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
26Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
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