In a previous article, I discussed using yards per route run to identify potential breakouts at the wide receiver position. In addition to yards per route run, air yards per target is also a valuable weapon to add to our arsenal in order to identify a wide receiver that has not yet reached his ceiling from a fantasy football perspective.

Before we dive into identifying such candidates based on air yards per target, let’s first look at why we should even be using air yards and if it is actually any more predictive than other statistics available. I originally took every wide receiver season dating back to 2011 with at least 75 targets. I then drilled down and isolated the sample to only include back to back seasons with at least 75 targets in each season. By doing this, we can see the “stickiness” of both air yards per target and yards after catch per target year over year.

Practice mock drafts with our FREE Dynasty Draft Simulator

Based on this information, air yards per target (R-squared of .54) account for nearly twice as much variability as yards after catch per target (R-squared of .29). In other words, air yards per target is a significantly more predictive metric year-to-year than looking at an efficiency statistic such as yards after catch per target.

With the groundwork laid in establishing that air yards per target can be used as a predictive metric, now let’s look at some breakthrough candidates heading into 2020 that have not yet hit their ceiling. Below is a list of the 10 wide receivers with the most air yards compared to actual receiving yards in 2019 with at least 14 air yards per target and 75 targets. Essentially, this list identifies wide receivers that have a strong likelihood of seeing similar opportunity in downfield targets from 2019 to 2020, while also having room to grow in terms of efficiency.

Based on air yards compared to actual receiving yards, it is easy to look at this list and think that all 10 of these wide receivers have a chance to improve in 2020. However, we all know that we can’t simply isolate one variable or metric to speculate on future outcomes. There are three wide receivers on this list that I would consider dynasty buys throughout this offseason based on future expectations.

Kenny Golladay (1.48 air yards per receiving yard) – While it certainly sounds strange to label last year’s WR9 in PPR formats as a breakthrough candidate moving forward, there is room for Kenny Golladay to grow in 2020. Despite such a strong season, Golladay’s catchable target rate was only 74.1%, which ranked 71^st among wide receivers. Currently ranked as dynasty WR12 according to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, Golladay is still a tremendous value heading into the heart of the 2020 offseason.  With the return of Matthew Stafford, who ranked 1^st in the NFL last season in percentage of pass attempts over 20 air yards at 19.8%, I look for Kenny Golladay to not only continue to see plenty of down field opportunities, but also to see a significant increase in quality targets.

Robby Anderson (1.80 air yards per receiving yard) – Robby Anderson is an intriguing option moving forward, as he currently sits awaiting a contract. The dynasty community would be surprised, to say the least, if Anderson remained with the New York Jets in 2020. We don’t often see wide receivers find immediate success with a change of scenery, but Anderson’s situation could potentially be similar to Alshon Jeffery in 2015-2016 with the move from Chicago to Philadelphia with both being deep ball threats. All eyes will be on Robby Anderson once free agency begins in the middle of March, as he is one of the top free agent wide receivers set to hit the open market.

Curtis Samuel (2.56 air yards per receiving yard) – This offseason can once again be labeled as the “Summer of Samuel”. Based on his efficient 2018, including high yards per route run, Samuel was touted as a breakout candidate in 2019. While it didn’t necessarily pan out, I don’t believe many are looking at Samuel as the source of the problem. In 2019, Curtis Samuel only saw a catchable target at a rate of 62.6%, which ranked 105^th of all wide receivers. With the expectation that Cam Newton returns in 2020, while he hasn’t been known for his prolific deep ball in recent seasons, he certainly is a better option for this offense than either Kyle Allen or Will Grier and will allow for increased production for Curtis Samuel in 2020.

With air yards per target being fairly predictive year to year, there is reason to believe that the above-mentioned wide receivers will continue to see similar downfield opportunities moving forward. As previously discussed, we must look at several variables and cannot simply look at air yards per target alone to predict future success. When we pair air yards per target with improved quarterback play or even a landing spot that will allow for improved efficiency, we can identify several wide receivers that can increase in perceived dynasty value, as well as productivity.

Note: All air yard and yard after catch information collected from www.airyards.com.

Subscribe: iTunes | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS

John Bauer is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from John, check out his archive or follow him @TheBauerClub.