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When it comes to rookie sleepers, I typically will target players walking into a specific circumstance. They need to be running backs. Preferably drafted by a team whose starter has an extensive injury history. Lastly, the current should be approaching the end of that starter’s rookie contract.
Injuries are difficult to predict, but if a player has ended consecutive seasons on the IR, I’m willing to gamble that they’ll get injured again. The NFL has also shown that if a running back isn’t elite, he’s likely not going to get a second contract from the team that drafted him. It’s a much easier path to fantasy relevancy for a late-round rookie running back than it is for a wide receiver, which is why I usually won’t target receivers late in my rookie drafts.
Running backs drafted as backups usually only have one player ahead of them on the depth chart, where wide receivers could have multiple players above them. Even if a rookie wide receiver ascends to starter status, they are still competing with three or four other players for targets. A running back that ascends to a starter role will see a majority of the touches out of the backfield.
Below, I will share with you two running backs to grab later in your rookie drafts and a wide receiver (despite my usual reservations) I feel is being overlooked.
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DeeJay Dallas (RB – SEA)
Deejay Dallas isn’t an especially impressive athlete. But what he lacks physically, he makes up for in opportunity. Seattle’s current starting running back, Chris Carson, suffered a severe hip injury to end the 2019 season. He will also be an unrestricted free agent after the 2020 season. Carson’s backup, Rashaad Penny, tore his ACL in Week 13 last year, and Seattle head coach Pete Carroll intimated that Penny could start the season on the physically unable to perform list. Though Penny is signed through the 2021 season, he hasn’t given us any reason to believe he’s ever going to live up to his first-round NFL Draft capital. It’s hard to envision him doing so during a likely injury-shortened 2020.
Even if Carson can suit up Week 1, his physical playing style doesn’t lend itself to remaining healthy. He popped up on the injury report numerous times over the 2018 and 2019 seasons and had to exit multiple games early. Though he only missed three games over those two years, he sat out 12 games in 2017 after fracturing his leg. There’s a better than zero chance that Dallas will start at least one game this season. Seattle loves to run the ball, having the third-most rushing attempts per game in 2019 after ranking second in 2018, so whoever starts at running back is a volume play. Currently ranked 40th in FantasyPros’ rookie ECR, Dallas could turn a handsome profit either for your roster or as a trade asset if you choose to flip him later.
Bryan Edwards (WR – LVR)
Before you get up in arms that I’m touting a player going off the board at 2.05 in rookie drafts, let me explain why I feel like Edwards is a sleeper. Again looking at the rookie ECR, Edwards is ranked behind several wide receivers that I’d easily take him over, including Michael Pittman, Brandon Aiyuk, and Laviska Shenault. Edwards broke out at as a 17.8-year-old freshman, hitting a perfect 100% breakout age, according to Player Profiler. Per the same site, he also produced a 94th-percentile dominator rating.
Standing 6’3″ and weighing 212 pounds, Edwards can out-muscle cornerbacks and beat press coverage. Despite only being 21 years old (he turns 22 in November), he is an experienced technician at his craft after playing four seasons in college, and his game should quickly transfer to the NFL level. If not for injuries that caused Edwards to miss the Senior Bowl and the NFL Combine, he would have likely been drafted in the second round. Instead, he fell to the Raiders in the third. Even if Edwards isn’t able to break out as a rookie, Tyrell Williams will take up $11.6 million of their cap in 2021 and can be released with no cap hit.
Anthony McFarland (RB – PIT)
McFarland checks a couple of my boxes. He joins a team whose starter, James Conner, has an extensive injury history. Conner is also a free agent after the 2021 season, and the Steelers — as evidenced by the Le’Veon Bell saga — are loath to give a second contract to a running back. If Conner can’t find a way to stay healthy, McFarland could take a significant share of the backfield opportunity as soon as the 2020 season. Even if Conner stays healthy, he’s almost certainly gone after the season.
As noted by Ray Garvin (@RayGQue) on his latest Dynasty Blueprint appearance, McFarland was a highly coveted college recruit who entered Maryland as a higher-rated prospect than Chuba Hubbard, Travis Etienne and leading rookie 1.01 candidate Clyde Edwards-Helaire. McFarland’s freshman season gave a glimpse into what made him such a highly recruited prospect when he ran for 1,034 yards on just 131 attempts, which works out to a robust 7.9 yards per carry. He took a step back in his sophomore season, during which he battled a high-ankle sprain. Although his yards per carry fell to 5.4, he did see an uptick in usage as a receiver.
McFarland brings blazing speed and elusiveness to the table. He ran a 4.44 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, which is in the 92nd percentile. He also ranked first from the 2020 running back class in Graham Barfield’s yards created per attempt metric. As Barfield noted, McFarland is a space back, and it would be best if Pittsburgh can scheme him for off-tackle runs. With his elite speed, McFarland will eat up any holes he sees and could be a problem for defenses if he catches a pass in open space. A tad undersized at 5’8″ and around 200 pounds, he probably can’t handle a heavy workload. But McFarland’s speed and elusiveness can make him a viable fantasy asset on just 10-15 touches per game.
What rookies are you targeting as sleepers this year? Let me know in the comments below.
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Shane Manila is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him @ShaneIsTheWorst.
