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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Heat at Celtics (9/17)

Sep 17, 2020

Today’s NBA slate features just a one-game showdown contest between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics, with the Heat leading the Eastern Conference Finals series 1-0. The implied total for the contest is 209 points, with the Celtics just slightly edging out the Heat. Remember, before you set your lineup, you should make sure that you’re up-to-date with all injury and lineup news.

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Star

Jayson Tatum (BOS): $15,600
Tatum is an absolute superstar, and he is truly making it known during this playoff series. In his first game, Tatum topped 30 real-life points and scooped up 67 DraftKings points in the contest by chipping in across the board while throwing up 24 shots. The young star is a solid choice in this contest, even if the defense of the Heat is relatively solid, particularly with guys like Jimmy Butler.

Jimmy Butler (MIA): $13,800
On the other side of the court, Butler is arguably the Heat’s best and most important player, and he is one of the league’s most exciting two-way players with his offense and defense looking equally impressive. Butler struggled in the first contest, as he totaled only 37.75 DraftKings points and ultimately failed to reach value, but he did shoot 50 percent from the field and has the potential for positive regression in his defensive statistics moving forward.

Bam Adebayo (MIA): $13,200
Adebayo — like Butler — is another star-studded option for the Heat and a potential contrarian option for those looking to go elsewhere with their star spot. Adebayo got a ton of run (43 minutes) in the first contest and jacked up 12 shots, though he only scored 43.5 DraftKings points and also came in under value, like Butler. Expect Adebayo to continue chipping in across the board, but to potentially rack up even a few more points as the Heat are going to need to rely on him moving forward offensively.

Jaylen Brown (BOS): $12,900
Like a lot of the options in this game, Brown did not perform tremendously well in the first contest, as he totaled only 29.25 DraftKings points. Luckily for Brown, he is coming off an incredible series against the Toronto Raptors and has all the talent needed to bounce back quickly and relatively easily. Expect to see Brown establish more of a scoring threat in this contest and moving forward.

Kemba Walker (BOS): $12,300
Once again, like most guys, Kemba didn’t reach value in Game 1, but there were multiple positives to take away from his performance. First, he played 43 minutes. Anytime someone gets that much run, you have no choice but to be intrigued. Next, Kemba jacked up 19(!) shots, though only six dropped, and he went only 1-of-9 from three-point land. Expect Kemba to see some positive regression in his shooting splits moving forward. That would do wonders for his value and point-totals.

Utility

Goran Dragic (MIA): $7,800
Dragic is one of the first players on this list who reached value in Game 1 with his 46.75 DraftKings points, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise considering his 11-of-19 shooting split from the court and 29 real-life points. Dragic’s insertion into the starting lineup has worked out tremendously for Erik Spoelstra, which ultimately presents a potential value option in the Slovenian.

Marcus Smart (BOS): $7,600
In three games against the Heat, Smart has averaged 25.0 fantasy points per game, with his first game landing at 32.75 DraftKings points. Smart continues to perform well in place of the injured Gordon Hayward, but he missed the mark in terms of his value price in the first contest. Bet on Smart to improve his performance with his strong offensive workload and defensive prowess.

Tyler Herro (MIA): $7,000
The rookie sharpshooter doesn’t get a ton of opportunities to produce on a per-game basis, and his shots have hovered right around 10-11 field goal attempts over his last two series in the playoffs. Yet still, Herro totaled 40.75 DraftKings points in Game 1, coincidentally nearly collecting a triple-double as he came just one assist shy of the feat. We can’t expect Herro to repeat that performance in this game, but he has the potential to light it up from three-point land whenever.

Jae Crowder (MIA): $6,800
Crowder doesn’t offer the same upside as some of the remaining options on this list, but he’s as steady and consistent as they come. Crowder — like always — reached value in his first game, totaling 37.25 DraftKings points on the back of a strong 22-point performance from the field. He shouldn’t have any issue reaching the same ceiling again, as he can chip in statistically across the board.

Daniel Theis (BOS): $6,600
The Celtics’ big man has not been productive over his last two contests, and he’s struggled to reach almost half of his value, nevermind his actual 5x value price-point. Still, Theis is a solid player who’s shown that he’s capable of being an important contributor for the team, particularly in the last playoff series against the Raptors. Don’t count Theis out as a lowkey contrarian option moving forward.

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Sosa Kremenjas is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Sosa, check out his archive and follow him @QBsMVP.

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