Every year, NFL Week 2 features at least a few irrational overreactions to opening week results on the part of the public. Are Jacksonville and Washington playoff teams after their big upsets? Is Tom Brady officially washed up after a two-interception performance in his Tampa Bay debut? Never say never, but probably not.
As far as picks for NFL pick’em and survivor pools are concerned, Week 2 overreactions and recency bias on the part of the public often result in attractive value picking opportunities that a smart player can exploit. Week 2 of 2020 is no exception.
Let’s take a look at the teams that every pool player needs to have on their radar screen in Week 2, starting with pick’em contests and then moving on to survivor and knockout pools.
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Value Picks For NFL Week 2 Pick’em Pools
Using Vegas odds, data-driven predictions, and pick popularity data from national football pick’em contests, we’ve analyzed the entire NFL Week 2 slate and identified five picks that offer differentiating value in pick’em pools.
Keep in mind that we are not saying you should make all of the picks below – the upset picks especially. The best Week 2 picks for your NFL pick’em or confidence pool depend on strategy factors such as its size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks left in the pool.
(Our Football Pick’em Picks product customizes recommended weekly picks for you based on all those factors.)
What we are saying is that the teams mentioned in this post offer some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 2 picks from your pool opponents, or they serve as prime examples of when picking against the crowd is most likely a bad idea.
Note: Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
Big Favorite At A Reasonable Price
The pick below may not be significantly underrated by the public, but compared to other big favorites this week, it’s a relative bargain in terms of pick popularity. Think twice about picking against it, as there are much smarter upset pick opportunities elsewhere.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Carolina)
Tom Brady looked like someone who retired to Florida in the season opener, throwing two interceptions (including a pick-six) in a loss at New Orleans. Meanwhile, Carolina was competitive in a home loss to the Raiders in head coach Matt Rhule’s debut. So it’s understandable that some pool players are picking the upset here in Week 2.
However, Tampa Bay is favored by 9 points, tied for the largest line of the week, and our models have them with the second-highest win odds behind only Kansas City. Yet there are five other teams being picked more heavily than the Bucs, who are at 91% pick popularity in Week 2.
If you are going to take a long-shot bet on an upset, there are better options on the Week 2 slate that are both less popular upset picks and favored by fewer points as well. In fact, we’ll highlight one below.
Value Favorites
2020 NFL Week 2 features several favorites that the public is picking at a lower rate than their chance to win. These types of teams are as close to no brainer picks as you can get in NFL pick’em contests since you can take the team that’s expected to win, yet still “fade the public” (in relative terms, at least) at the same time.
Cleveland Browns (vs. Cincinnati)
The Browns got killed on opening day by the Ravens, managing to score only 6 points, while the Bengals were competitive against the Chargers. That’s the formula for a trendy Week 2 upset pick, when the public reads too much into opening week results. In a case like this, you can find value just sticking with the favorite.
Cleveland is favored by 6 points in this game, with 70% win odds according to both the betting market and our models, while the public is picking the Browns around 68% of the time. That means you can take the more likely winner and gain ground on 32% of a typical pool if the favorite prevails. It’s a rare situation for a team favored by this much.
Yes, that requires putting some faith in the Browns, but how they looked last week (against one of the two best teams in the NFL, in the first game for head coach Kevin Stefanski) is very public knowledge already being factored into the betting odds. In short, it’s too early to write off Cleveland in 2020.
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Minnesota)
Speaking of jumping off bandwagons, the public has completely bailed on the Colts in Week 2, after their crushing road loss at Jacksonville. You can be there to cash in on overreaction this week by simply staying the course.
About 75% of the public so far is picking Minnesota in this game. Yet the Colts, playing at home, are actually 3-point favorites in this game in the betting markets, with 56% win odds according to our projections. It’s rare to get a favorite of this size that is this unpopular, so you need to jump the opportunity when it presents itself.
And again, yes, this does require trusting Philip Rivers not to have another frustrating game. But the Colts did out-gain the Jaguars by nearly 200 yards last week, so they just did the little things to lose. With how strongly the public is going the other way, the Colts present great value for a bounce-back at home.
Unpopular Toss-Up Pick
When a matchup is close to a 50/50 proposition, it often makes sense to pick the less popular team. To win an NFL pick’em pool, you’re probably going to need some luck in these “coin flip” games, and when you get it, you want to maximize the upside.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. LA Rams)
Here’s another case of a wild swing in popular opinion (as reflected by pick popularity) after just one week. The Eagles were a very popular pick last week, before losing at Washington in embarrassing fashion. At the same time, the public was strongly supporting Dallas on the road at the Rams, but Los Angeles won by a field goal.
A week later, 68% of the public is taking the Rams, on the road, against a Philadelphia team looking to bounce back. The point spread in this one is currently the Rams -1, while our win odds have it as a 50% toss-up game.
According to NBC Sports, offensive tackle Lane Johnson has already said he’s playing in Week 2 after sitting out the opener. His absence was likely a factor in QB Carson Wentz struggling and getting sacked 8 times by Washington. Add in that RB Miles Sanders could return, and you could see a different Eagles team in Week 2.
Value Gamble
If you’re going to take a gamble on an underdog, you need to make sure that the potential reward if you get it right—that is, how much your odds to win your pool will increase—is big. Take a bunch of extra risk to make a super trendy upset pick, and the joke is really on you.
The pick below is definitely not appropriate for all pools. If you’re in a smaller, season-long pool, it’s probably not worth the risk. However, it should be seriously considered for single-week contests or if you only care about weekly prizes in your pool.
New England Patriots (at Seattle)
If you want to get really risky, you can take the Detroit Lions over the Green Bay Packers, where only 2% of the public is picking the Lions as a 6-point underdog. That makes Detroit the least popular choice of the week, even though they aren’t the biggest underdog. If you don’t want to take quite that much risk, but still want to sprinkle in an upset play in your weekly picks, look to the Patriots.
The public isn’t giving New England much of a chance at Seattle, despite their solid start in the first game with Cam Newton at quarterback. New England is only a 3.5-point underdog but is being picked by only 14% of the public. While plenty of folks are expecting the Patriots to take a step back in 2020 without Tom Brady, their win odds in this game are around 35%.
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Week 2 NFL Survivor Picks: 49ers and Titans Early Popular Choices
Week 2 features a whopping 12 teams favored by between 5.5 and 9 points, which means there are plenty of viable survivor pick options to choose from this week. That means just like in Week 1, the choices are a little more spread out than we are used to seeing in survivor.
The best pick for you, then, will depend on a variety of factors. The number of entries left in your pool is a big one, as some of the choices for Week 2 might be quite valuable later in the year if you play in a big survivor pool expected to last deep into the season.
In addition to the likelihood of winning, pick popularity is something else that you need to consider, as the more popular a team becomes, the more the expected value of picking that team decreases.
San Francisco 49ers (at NY Jets)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 19% (#1)
Point Spread: -7
The 49ers lost at home last week, and are now the most popular choice in survivor in Week 2. That’s how strongly the public wants to go against the woeful Jets, who will now be playing without RB Le’Veon Bell.
San Francisco, though, isn’t the biggest favorite of the week. Four other teams have a larger point spread.
Given that they also have a fair amount of future value, the value proposition for using the 49ers this week with relatively high popularity, and good (but not the best) win odds, is not all that great.
Tennessee Titans (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 15% (#2)
Point Spread: -9
Tennessee, hosting Jacksonville, is tied with Tampa Bay for the largest point spread of the week. The Titans also have only modest future value, and some of the other potential weeks to use them come late (Weeks 13-15: Cleveland, at Jacksonville, Detroit).
So they are a decent consideration as a Week 2 survivor pick, with modest popularity for a team near the top in win odds.
Should you be concerned about picking against Jacksonville, though, coming off their upset last week? Here’s the data: Going back to 2000, teams that are underdogs of 7+ points in Week 2 are 5-19 (21%) when coming off a win the previous week, and 10-42 (19%) when coming off a loss.
Considering the 0-1 big underdogs had slightly bigger point spreads on average, there is no compelling evidence that a big Week 2 underdog coming off a Week 1 win is any more dangerous to pick against than an underdog that lost the previous week.
Green Bay Packers (vs. Detroit Lions)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 12% (#3)
Point Spread: -6
Green Bay looked very impressive in Week 1, cruising to a win at Minnesota while scoring over 40 points and gaining over 500 yards. Detroit, meanwhile, blew a big lead in the fourth quarter and lost in very Lions-esque fashion. Detroit also now has potential injury concerns in the secondary entering Week 2.
All of those factors are known, though, and Green Bay has been established as a 6-point favorite in the betting markets. Meanwhile, the public is pretty heavy on the Packers, picking them 12% of the time in survivor pools.
Green Bay doesn’t have a lot of future weeks where they set up as a potentially high-value survivor pick, but they do get Jacksonville at home in Week 10, when they will likely be among the largest favorites of the week.
Given their relatively high popularity compared to their win odds, Green Bay provides lower expected value than some other options this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Carolina Panthers)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 11% (#4)
Point Spread: -9
The Bucs join the Titans as the largest favorite of the week. Tampa Bay did not look very impressive last week versus the Saints, with Tom Brady throwing two interceptions in his Tampa debut.
Tampa Bay did end up gaining more yards than the Saints, though, and the defense generally played well. Carolina, meanwhile, played the Raiders tough before losing a close game at home. So this one comes down to whether you trust the objective win odds, or refuse to believe them after Brady’s poor debut.
As far as future value goes, Tampa Bay does have some moderate value in coming weeks. However, Week 2 is the only week in which we have the Bucs projected for over 70% win odds. They could potentially serve as a secondary or contrarian option in Week 8 (at the Giants) or Week 10 (in the rematch against the Panthers).
Kansas City Chiefs (at Los Angeles Chargers)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 8% (#5)
Point Spread: -8.5
As we noted in our preseason analysis article on the Chiefs and Ravens, deciding when to use Kansas City will be a key strategy consideration in 2020 survivor pools. KC will be a good option in most weeks, including this one, where they are just slightly behind Tampa Bay and Tennessee in terms of having the largest point spread of the week.
Because you can only use the Chiefs once, though, you have to decide which week is the best to employ them as a pick.
Kansas City already had very high future value entering the season, but because of how Week 1 played out (with entries picking Kansas City surviving, but 40% of all survivor entries losing), the future value of saving the Chiefs is now even higher than it was entering Week 1.
Get Our Week 2 Survivor Pick For Your Pool
Figuring out the best picks for your NFL survivor pool each week isn’t easy. It takes a lot of data and math to quantify the various pros and cons of each possible option, and then feel confident that you’ve made the smartest choices. Not to mention that a late-week shift in a team’s win odds or pick popularity always threatens to derail your initial conclusions.
As geeky engineer types, we built technology to solve the complexity of survivor pool pick optimization. Our NFL Survivor Picks product does all the data collection and number crunching necessary to identify the best weekly picks for many popular types of survivor pools.
It even updates multiple times per day to adjust for the latest data, and provides pick recommendations for portfolios of up to 30 different entries (e.g., “3 Chiefs, 2 Bills, 2 Colts”).
The result? Over the past three seasons, our subscribers have won over three times the prize money as expected in survivor pools, given the size of their pools. Try it out for free:
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