We have crossed the midpoint of the fantasy season. Week 11 is going to be a disaster with six teams on bye, five of which are offenses we want to target. Outside of that though, streaming is going to get easier for two reasons: (1) we have a pretty solid idea of who the bad offenses are, and (2) there will be less competition on the waiver wire as non-contending fantasy teams stop trying.
That said, it’s still worth planning ahead for Week 10. I don’t do full rankings more than a week out (in part because we don’t have Vegas lines), but here is a list of teams I think will be good starts in Week 10, either worth stashing, or using this week:
- Packers: They’re an OK start this week @SF, and will be an excellent start in Week 10 against Jacksonville, for whom I expect Jake Luton will still be starting.
- Chargers: You can’t start them this week against Las Vegas, but they should be in a great spot in Week 10 against the Dolphins for Tua Tagovailoa‘s third career start. This is one to keep an eye on though – it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Tua finds his stride and goes off this week.
- Raiders: Like the Chargers they’re facing, you can’t start the Raiders this week. Unless Drew Lock really impresses us against the Falcons, I don’t think I’ll have any hesitation about starting LV against Denver in Week 10.
- Steelers: If you have them you probably don’t need me to tell you this, but the Steelers are a great start this week against Dallas, and will be great next week against Cincinnati.
- Saints: I have no interest in using the Saints against Tampa Bay this week, but if you can afford to sash them, they get an excellent matchup vs the Bears in Week 10.
Ranks
After a rough one last week, there are quite a few good options this time around. Several of my top 10 have low rostership, including Houston in my top tier at just 6%. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo, and reflect Tuesday morning, before Waivers have cleared in most leagues. You can find me on Twitter.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | O/U | Spread | PA | Sack | Turnovers | TD | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||||
| 1 | PIT | @DAL | 43* | -9.5 | 16.75* | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 8.45 | 97% |
| 2 | NE | @NYJ | 41 | -7 | 17 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.13 | 7.55 | 92% |
| 3 | WAS | NYG | 42.5 | -3.5 | 19.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.13 | 7.49 | 24% |
| 4 | HOU | @JAC | 51.5 | -6.5 | 22.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.13 | 6.83 | 6% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||||
| 5 | NYG | @WAS | 42.5 | 3.5 | 23 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.13 | 6.8 | 32% |
| 6 | KC | CAR | 52.5 | -10.5 | 21 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.11 | 6.29 | 96% |
| 7 | ARI | MIA | 47.5 | -4.5 | 21.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 6.2 | 18% |
| 8 | BAL | @IND | 44.5 | -3 | 20.75 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.12 | 5.91 | 96% |
| 9 | GB | @SF | 50.5 | -3.5 | 23.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.13 | 5.81 | 19% |
| 10 | TEN | CHI | 46.5 | -5.5 | 20.5 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 5.69 | 27% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 11 | MIN | DET | 53 | -4 | 24.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.13 | 5.68 | 22% |
| 12 | NYJ | NE | 41 | 7 | 24 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.12 | 5.58 | 6% |
| 13 | MIA | @ARI | 47.5 | 4.5 | 26 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 5.5 | 14% |
| 14 | SEA | @BUF | 54 | -3 | 25.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 5.31 | 34% |
| 15 | CHI | @TEN | 46.5 | 5.5 | 26 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 5.31 | 79% |
| 16 | IND | BAL | 44.5 | 3 | 23.75 | 2.6 | 1 | 0.1 | 5.15 | 59% |
| 17 | DEN | @ATL | 50 | 4 | 27 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 5.08 | 23% |
| 18 | JAC | HOU | 51.5 | 6.5 | 29 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 5.07 | 2% |
| 19 | DAL | PIT | 43* | 9.5 | 26.25* | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.13 | 5.05 | 32% |
| 20 | ATL | DEN | 50 | -4 | 23 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 5.02 | 2% |
| 21 | BUF | SEA | 54 | 3 | 28.5 | 3 | 1.1 | 0.11 | 5.01 | 97% |
| 22 | SF | GB | 50.5 | 3.5 | 27 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.11 | 5 | 75% |
| 23 | TB | NO | 54.5 | -4.5 | 25 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.12 | 4.89 | 86% |
| 24 | LV | @LAC | 54 | 1.5 | 27.75 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 4.7 | 2% |
| 25 | LAC | LV | 54 | -1.5 | 26.25 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.11 | 4.63 | 75% |
| 26 | DET | @MIN | 53 | 4 | 28.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 4.47 | 2% |
| 27 | NO | @TB | 54.5 | 4.5 | 29.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 4.11 | 60% |
| 28 | CAR | @KC | 52.5 | 10.5 | 31.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.11 | 3 | 5% |
*At the time of writing there is no public total for PIT@DAL, so this is an educated guess by me. My expectation is that we’ll also see the spread increase, to allow PIT to have an implied total near 28 while DAL ends up below 17.
Matchups
- PIT @ DAL: The Cowboys have now played three games without Dak Prescott. Their scores in those games are 10, 3 and 9 points. Basically anyone would be my top defense against this Cowboys offense, and it doesn’t hurt that Pittsburgh just so happens to be one of the best defenses in football.
- NE @ NYJ: Speaking of not scoring points, the Jets are now on a four-game streak of not exceeding 10 points. New England doesn’t have a great defense like Pittsburgh. They’re below average, still not nearly bad enough that I wouldn’t feel great about starting them against the Jets.
- WAS vs NYG: The Football Team benched a better quarterback (Dwayne Haskins) than they’re facing this week with Daniel Jones. Washington’s defense has also been a nice surprise this season, ranking in the top five of PFF’s Defensive Efficiency Ratings.
- HOU @ JAC: Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew has fractures and ligament damage in this thumb, so Houston will be facing 6th-round rookie Jake Luton in his first career start. That makes Houston an excellent option, and with only 6% rostership, there’s a high likelihood you can get them.
- NYG @ WAS: Washington had their best game with Kyle Allen as a starter in Week 7 before their bye, but that still involved just 25 points against perhaps the worst defense in the league, Dallas. The Giants had an excellent fantasy day the last time they faced Washington, thanks to a defensive touchdown. I would never rely on that repeating, but the upside is clearly there.
- KC vs CAR: This is one to keep an eye on, because there’s a chance Christian McCaffrey returns this week. Mike Davis has been playing well in his place, but CMC would be a serious upgrade against a Chiefs defense that has an excellent secondary, but struggles against the run. If you play KC this week, they’ll shut down the Panthers’ passing game, thereby keeping the point total low despite also reducing turnover opportunities. If it turns out that CMC plays, that strategy gets a little more uncertain, but KC will still be an OK start.
- ARI vs MIA: Tua Tagovailoa didn’t do much in his first start. He scored one TD on just 93 yards, but he also allowed just one sack and didn’t throw an interception. He’s not the kind of sack-turnover QB that makes excellent stat lines for opposing DSTs, but if his overall offensive output stays this low, there’s no reason not to use opposing defenses in fantasy.
- BAL @ IND: The Colts haven’t been bad with Phillip Rivers, but Vegas appears to have little respect for their ability to score on one of the best defenses in the league. There are better options, but if you’ve been riding Baltimore, there’s no reason to jump off now. (Though I might consider it if Pittsburgh is available.)
- GB @ SF: Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to miss several weeks with a high ankle sprain, so the Packers get to face Nick Mullens. We’ve seen Mullens before, and he’s actually not bad as backups go. “As backups go” is doing a lot of work here, because I wouldn’t call him good in a general sense. The 49ers know how to manage mediocre passers at quarterback, so we should not expect an interception-disaster-fest like we would with some backup quarterbacks. What we should expect is a high floor for Green Bay as the 49ers struggle to score points with their running game.
- TEN vs CHI: The Bears need to trade for Dwayne Haskins. The fact that Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky before him haven’t been complete disasters is evidence that Chicago is actually an excellent situation for quarterbacks, so a half-decent QB should be able to thrive. Until that happens, Chicago’s opponents get to feast on Foles, who has had at least one interception every game since taking over as the starter.
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