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StatHero NFL Lineup Advice: Week 9

by Isaiah Sirois | @is_sirois | Featured Writer
Nov 7, 2020

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Check out StatHero’s $6,000 Week 9 NFL Survivor Pool >>

Aggressive Lineup: Seattle Seahawks

Ugh. Last week I recommended rolling with the San Francisco 49ers, and I spent the better part of a half-hour deciding between George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk for the MVP slot. I ended up going with Kittle because of his high-volume role, but Aiyuk would’ve been the better call as we know now. That’s frustrating. This week, I recommend that you play Seattle — they have the highest projected point total on the slate (54.5), and they should score 25.75 of those points. You’re not going to find a much better deal elsewhere; this game should be a shootout.

MVP: Tyler Lockett
It’s a Lockett week. Why? Metcalf almost exclusively plays on the perimeter, which means he’ll take on shutdown corner Tre’Davious White. Lockett will have a much easier time against Taron Johnson in the slot. Lockett isn’t a pure slot receiver, but he plays over half of his snaps out of the slot, so he has the advantage over Metcalf. It’s also important to consider scoring opportunities when selecting your MVP, and I’d roll with Lockett for that reason — Lockett leads the team in target share inside the 20-yard line (20.9%) and the 10-yard line (25.9%).

QB: Russell Wilson

FLEX A: D.K. Metcalf
Even though Lockett is the no-brainer option at WR1, you can’t leave Metcalf out of your lineup. In his worst game this season, Metcalf still got five targets (he caught two for 23 yards). He has just one game with fewer than 90 receiving yards, and he has caught a touchdown pass in all but two games. Metcalf is a great option with StatHero’s long-distance bonuses, but since he’s likely to draw coverage from White, I can’t recommend starting him at MVP.

FLEX B: Greg Olsen
Behind Metcalf and Lockett, the Seahawks have a relatively shaky situation at their skill positions. Since Carson and Hyde are dealing with injuries, I’ll punt on discussing them to hype up Olsen for a second. Even though Olsen hasn’t been great this year, he has a 10.6% target share, and that kind of volume is enough to warrant his inclusion. Olsen’s problems stem from his catch rate (65.4%), which is only ahead of Metcalf (61%) in Seattle. Since the Bills give up the fourth-most PPR points per game to tight ends, I think rolling the dice with Olsen makes sense.

FLEX C: DeeJay Dallas
Since Carson is out, you should roll with Dallas. You need to include a team’s starting running back on StatHero, especially since Seattle has kept these players heavily involved in the passing game. Dallas looked good as Carson’s replacement last week — he touched the ball 23 times, picked up 58 yards, and scored twice.

Contrarian Lineup: Arizona Cardinals

I rolled with the Browns and their rushing attack in this spot last week, but I wasn’t expecting them to be as ineffective as they were in the snow. That’s rough, but I’ve got a much better play this week. The Cardinals might be a bit more aggressive than the teams I usually feature here, but this game has a relatively high total (49.5), and it features a running back who probably won’t have much competition for touches.

MVP: Chase Edmonds
Kenyan Drake is out. As a result, Edmonds should get a ton of touches. The second-string running back has averaged 8.7 touches per game over the last three weeks, and he’s in line for Drake’s 18 per game, which gives us a potential total of 26.7. That’s almost certainly too high, but any number north of 25 is enough for an easy RB1 finish. The Dolphins have fared poorly against running backs this season (they surrender 26.3 PPR points per game to the position), and they have given up up the third-highest rate of explosive run plays (15%). Edmonds’ penchant for explosive plays makes me like him a lot here — his breakaway run rate (10.3%) ranks third among eligible players. That upside, combined with StatHero’s distance-based bonuses, make me absolutely love Edmonds this week.

QB: Kyler Murray

FLEX A: DeAndre Hopkins
You can’t leave Hopkins out of your lineup. The elite WR1 leads the NFL in receptions (57), has an impressive catch rate (78.1%), and hasn’t finished a game with fewer than seven targets. Hopkins hasn’t scored a ton of touchdowns this year, however, and that limits his upside enough for me to roll with Edmonds at MVP instead. Hopkins has posted 20-plus in PPR formats in five of his seven games, and I’d look for him to have another strong showing against Miami’s secondary, which gives up 40.9 PPR points per game to wide receivers.

FLEX B: Christian Kirk
Kirk has been a boom-or-bust option this season. He has two finishes with fewer than 10 points, two finishes with between 10 and 15, and two finishes with 20-plus. Interestingly, these are all consecutive results — Kirk has been trending up through 2020. While I don’t think that he will keep score 20-plus PPR points against the Dolphins, his elite speed gives him a ton of pop in StatHero’s bonus-fueled scoring. Kirk ranks 16th in deep targets to date with 10, and he could easily pay off for your lineup by catching just one of those.

FLEX C: Larry Fitzgerald
Fitzgerald is a floor play. He ranks second in targets for the Cardinals (37), although his 5.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT) means that they don’t have much value. Fitzgerald hasn’t scored more than 15 PPR points in a game this year, but he’s scored at least five in all but two, and he’s scored at least seven in all but four. If Drake really is sidelined, Murray will be forced to throw a lot more, and that’ll probably mean more dump-offs for Fitzgerald. The veteran receiver won’t win you a matchup, but he’s the best option to fill out your lineup.

Check out StatHero’s $6,000 Week 9 NFL Survivor Pool >>

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.