Skip to main content

FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Thursday (1/21)

by Zachary Hanshew | @ZaktheMonster | Featured Writer
Jan 21, 2021

After a big Wednesday slate, we’ve got just three games on the docket tonight, highlighted by the first game of the evening, Lakers/Bucks at 7:35pm. With such a small player pool, we’ll need to look for the highest upside values to pair with our bona fide studs. As always, we’ll name values, studs, and fades for the day’s DFS festivities. Let’s get right to it!

Create FanDuel lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Most Value Per Dollar

Players expected to generate the most value relative to salary.

Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Lonzo Ball (NO) at UTH $5,500 Medium
Dennis Schroder (LAL) at  MIL $6,600 Low

 

  • I’m going back to the well with Ball tonight, even after he scored just 23.2 FD points in Tuesday’s return. What’s important to note is that he scored those 23.2 points in just 23 minutes of action. His playing time is expected to increase tonight, and if Ball can get on the court for closer to the 32.4 minutes he’s averaged thus far, he could be a great value. There’s plenty of both risk and reward in plugging Ball into your lineups.
  • The matchup with Milwaukee’s stout defense might look scary on paper, but there’s nothing to worry about with Schroder here. He’s averaged 31.7 FD points in 31.5 minutes across his last six games, and tonight’s matchup with the Bucks has the highest over/under of the three games on the slate (228.5).

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Immanuel Quickley (NYK) at GSW $4,500 High
Jordan Clarkson (UTH) vs. NO $6,300 Low

 

  • Aside from a 15.2-FD-point performance Tuesday, Quickley has been lights out over the last week. In three games prior, he averaged better than 33 FD points, and across his last five contests, the rookie is averaging a robust 1.119 FD points per minute. As long as he can see playing time in the low-to-mid 20’s, he’s got a great chance to be a huge value at his affordable price tag.
  • Clarkson continues to roll, as he’s averaged 20.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.7 dimes across his last seven games. He scored 33.2 FD points in Tuesday’s matchup with New Orleans, and he’ll look to show up for another strong performance in tonight’s rematch.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
R.J. Barrett (NYK) at GSW $6,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Kelly Oubre (GSW) vs. NYK $5,600 ⭐⭐ High

 

  • Barrett’s FD point totals have increased in each of his last four games, culminating in a 22/10/4 line against Orlando on Tuesday (40.0 FD points). Tonight’s matchup with Golden State’s lackluster defense provides Barrett the opportunity to far exceed value, even as his price continues to climb.
  • After a rough start to the season, Oubre has turned it on over the last week. He’s provided at least 35 FD points in each of his last two games, and the forward has averaged 3.0 combined blocks/steals across his last three outings. Oubre has 40-point upside, and at this price point, he’s a solid value.

 

 

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Bobby Portis (MIL) vs. LAL $4,900 ⭐⭐ Medium
Draymond Green (GSW) vs. NYK $5,400 High

 

  • Bobby P has been huge off the bench for Milwaukee. He’s averaged nearly one FD point per minute this season, but that number has climbed to a healthy 1.195 FD points per minute across his last five — seventh-best mark in the NBA. Tonight’s matchup between the Bucks and Lakers sports the highest over/under on the slate at 228.5, so Portis could certainly be a value in this one at his sub-$5K price tag.
  • Across his last six games, Green has eclipsed 30 FD points three times while failing to hit 20 FD points three times. Those totals make him a riskier option in DFS lineups tonight, but at just $5.4K, he could easily smash value.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
James Wiseman (GSW) vs. NY $4,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Wiseman went off against the Spurs last night to the tune of 20/6/4, and tonight, he’ll face the NBA’s most generous defense to opposing centers. The rookie’s playing time has been hit-or-miss thus far, but on the second night of a back-to-back, it’s possible the No. 2 overall pick sees a little more playing time in favor of getting Golden State’s veterans some rest.

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Jrue Holiday (MIL) $7,600: Given the expected high score of the Bucks/Lakers game, I’d like to get in on the action with someone like Holiday who has legitimate 50-point upside thanks to his two-way abilities.
  • Khris Middleton (MIL) $8,000: Ditto Middleton, whose high usage and ability to heat up from the floor give him huge upside in this one.
  • Julius Randle (NYK) $9,000: Randle has been a beast this season, and tonight, he’ll face a Golden State defense allowing the fifth-most FD points to the PF position, including the second-most rebounds.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Rudy Gobert (UTH) $8,500: Gobert continues to be a fade, as his $8.5K salary is just too rich given his limited upside. At this price, Gobert would need to score at least 42.5 FD points to hit 5x value — something he’s done just five times across 14 games played. I’d rather go for a value option at center and target studs at other positions.
  • LeBron James (LAL) $9,500: James is another player I’ve continually faded, as there are just better ways to spend money on most slates. In order to hit 5x value, he’d need to score 47.5 FD points, a mark which he hasn’t hit in any of his last six games.
  • Andrew Wiggins (GSW) $7,000: He’s had some big games this season, but Wiggins’ production has fallen off as of late due to the emergence of Kelly Oubre. He hasn’t scored 30 FD points in any of his last three games, and $7K is a steep price to pay on such a small slate.

Create FanDuel lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Zachary Hanshew is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.

What's your take? Leave a comment

Build winning DFS lineups

Use the FantasyPros Lineup Optimizer to build winning lineups based on expert projections.