Statcast Review: Jon Gray, Mitch Haniger, Adolis Garcia (2021 Fantasy Baseball)

Just when you thought the sprint that was the 2020 season was strange, here comes 2021. We’re getting weekly no-hitters, batting average down across the league, Tony La Russa publicly shaming his own player for hitting a home run and then praising an opposing team for throwing at said player, and a ton of injuries to some of the best players in the game. Baseball is a wild game, but that’s why we love it. And now that we’re more than six weeks into the season, we have a significant pool of data to evaluate.

Throughout this series, we’ll look at different Statcast metrics for batters and pitchers each week. We’ll talk numbers and what they mean, and I’ll provide some player-specific notes after each section. The metrics themselves will change on a weekly basis, and we’ll circle back to some of our favorites every few weeks to see what trends we can identify.

Have something you want me to cover in this space or just want to talk baseball? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.

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Barrels

Last week, we took a look at quality of contact and focused on wOBA and xwOBA numbers to identify pitchers and batters who have been “overachieving.” This week, we’re going to take a look at barrels, barrels per BBE (batted ball event), and barrels per PA (plate appearance) for both pitchers and batters.

For those who are unaware, a “barrel” in this context refers to the metric created by Statcast a few years ago that focuses on the exit velocity and launch angle of batted balls. When Statcast announced the new metric, they offered this definition for a barrel: “a well-struck ball where the combination of exit velocity and launch angle generally leads to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.” Barreled balls need to have an exit velocity of at least 98 MPH, and the required launch angle changes depending on the exit velocity. A higher exit velocity results in a larger range for the launch angle.

In short, a barrel means the hitter made solid contact and hit the ball hard enough to do some damage. Barrels are very good for batters and very bad for pitchers. Let’s take a look at the data.

Barrels – Pitchers

Below a list of 117 qualified pitchers, sorted by barrels per plate appearance. Also included are the total BBEs (batted ball events), total barrels, and barrels per BBE. As mentioned above, barrels are bad for pitchers, so we want lower numbers here. That’s why Alex Wood and his 1.4 Barrels per PA are right at the top of our leaderboard. But this list is sortable, so you can click on any of the below columns and sort that view. Note that the darker blue numbers are good, and the lighter green/yellow numbers are…less good.

Note: This table is sortable and searchable, so feel free to look around!

Notes

Charts like this one really put into perspective hot starts like the one Alex Wood is having. Wood has allowed just TWO barrels out of a possible 93 batted balls, good for the best barrels per batted ball event and barrels per plate appearance percentages in all of baseball. IF (capital IF here, friends) he can stay healthy, Wood has the talent to continue this bounceback and revive his career.
Second in the league behind Wood in both categories is…Jon Gray. Please, fantasy gods, don’t provide the metrics that pull me back in on Gray. This is my first year in so long not having any shares. Don’t do this to me! :::heavy sigh::: Ok, here we go. Gray has allowed just four barrels in 152 batted ball events. He has been leaning on his slider more in 2021, and the early returns have been excellent (.190 batting average against and an even better .182 xBA). His ERA is .348, and his xERA is an even better 3.39. He’s on a one-year deal and the Rockies are terrible, meaning he might even get traded to a contender (and away from Coors Field) this Summer. Ok, it’s happening. EVERYBODY PANIC. I’m back in on Jon Gray. Are you with me?

He has hurt me so many times, BUT

? Jon Gray has the second-best Barrels/BBE% and Barrels/PA% in all of baseball (behind only Alex Wood).

? He's throwing his slider more, and opponents are batting just .190 with a .182 xBA against it.

? Should be traded away from Coors…

— mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) May 19, 2021

Brady Singer is not a name I expected to see near the top of this list. I love him in dynasty formats but have been a little nervous for redraft formats. I’d like to see better Whiff and Chase Rate numbers, but those are really the only knocks against him right now. His underlying numbers look even better than his solid start. Consider me officially interested in Singer for the rest of the season.
Garrett Richards did not start strong for the Red Sox, but he has since turned things around. Now, to be clear, there is a WHOLE LOT going on if you start digging into what Richards is doing. His Hard Hit% is 8th percentile, but his Barrel% is 87th percentile. Many of his other expected starts are below league average. But he is limiting barrels and throwing his curveball a TON, and with great success. If not for a disastrous six-run outing in his first start, his 3.89 ERA would be even lower. Don’t bank on consistent success from Richards, but he is worth a look in most formats given some of his recent performances and these barrel numbers.

Barrels – Batters

Below is a list of 134 qualified batters, sorted by Barrels per plate appearance. Also included are the total BBEs, total barrels, and barrels per BBE. Unlike what we talked about for pitchers, barrels are good in this context. Batters who barrel balls are more likely to drive the ball and make an impact. Just look at the top of the list here. You’ll see some of the same players that you see in highlights every night. Barrels help us identify who is consistently making impactful contact, and they’re a perfect stat for identifying power potential for fantasy managers.

Note: This table is sortable and searchable, so feel free to look around!

Notes

With the season he’s having, it should surprise no one to see Shohei Ohtani atop the leaderboard here. He has the best barrels per plate appearance number and the best barrels per batted ball even number, and he is on the fast track to being an MVP candidate, especially if he can help keep the Angels relevant with Mike Trout set to miss two months.
While barrels aren’t the end all be all for evaluating hitters, they do give us great insight into power potential and power frequency. If you poke around and sort this table, you’ll find Nick Madrigal and David Fletcher at the bottom. While both players are good at making content, neither one has a single barrel this season.

Interesting stat I just discovered while working on this week's #Statcast piece:

Nick Madrigal has put 127 balls in play and has exactly zero barrels ?

— mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) May 19, 2021

Adolis Garcia is one of my favorite stories through the first six weeks. We keep expecting him to flame out after a hot start, but he just keeps hitting and stealing bases. Through 34 games, he’s batting .295 with 20 runs scored, 11 home runs, 30 RBI, and five stolen bases. And as you can see, he is barreling up the ball with the best of them. The question for everyone—and this is why Garcia is such a popular trade/sell-high candidate—is whether or not this will continue. The answer is…maybe? To his credit, Garcia knows the league is going to adjust to him and has been working with coaches to improve the holes in his game. But he is seeing fastballs more than 50% of the time and has been feasting on them. His numbers against breaking pitches are quite good, too, though his expected numbers are lower. Where he struggles is against offspeed pitches, which he has only seen 15% of the time. Against those, he is batting just .053. Look for an uptick in offspeed pitches coming his way in the coming weeks, and how well he adjusts will be key.
It’s only May, but Mitch Haniger might already be running away with the Comeback Player of the Year Award (though there are others like Trey Mancini who may still have something to say about that). He’s healthy for the first time in a long time, and the results have been fantastic. Recently, Eno Sarris of The Athletic pointed out that health isn’t the only reason for Haniger’s resurgence. Sarris notes that Haniger is among the players who have begun studying and weighing their bats to identify inconsistencies in weight after finding that heavier bats weren’t performing as well as lighter bats, especially in terms of exit velocity.

That’s all for this week, friends. See someone above you’d like to talk more about, or just have a general question? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher anytime.

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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.