Week 8 kicks off with a showdown of elite NFC teams. Unfortunately, a few notable players are likely to be sidelined because of the COVID-19 protocols. Further, another star might be sidelined because of injury. Thus, there are many moving parts, and I analyze both teams with the fluid situation in mind.
Get free start/sit and waiver wire advice for your fantasy team 
Game: Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: ARI -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Packers Analysis: Green Bay's offense has been thrown a loop this week. Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Lazard will miss this game, and the timing of playing on Thursday presents a challenge for Adams providing the requisite two negative tests separated by 24 hours to play this week. Still, if Adams suits up, he's a fabulous play. So, I included him in the team's table.
Week 8 kicks off with a showdown of elite NFC teams. Unfortunately, a few notable players are likely to be sidelined because of the COVID-19 protocols. Further, another star might be sidelined because of injury. Thus, there are many moving parts, and I analyze both teams with the fluid situation in mind.
Get free start/sit and waiver wire advice for your fantasy team
Game: Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: ARI -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Packers Analysis: Green Bay's offense has been thrown a loop this week. Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Lazard will miss this game, and the timing of playing on Thursday presents a challenge for Adams providing the requisite two negative tests separated by 24 hours to play this week. Still, if Adams suits up, he's a fabulous play. So, I included him in the team's table.
The uncertainty for the Packers doesn't end there. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is eligible to return from injured reserve. Unfortunately, he's not yet a lock to make his return this week. Regardless, I'm fading him if he suits up because of a troubling matchup. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Cardinals have allowed the third-lowest average explosive pass rate (six percent). That's bad news for MVS, as Sports Info Solutions credits him with the second-deepest average depth of target (20.7 yards) among players targeted at least 10 times.
Aaron Rodgers is a usable option on a single-game slate even without his top option and arguably his second receiver. The reigning NFL MVP can elevate the remaining talent around him. Still, his floor and ceiling are both reduced if Adams is out. So, I don't view him as a must-use option.
Instead, I think this could prompt the Packers to lean more heavily on their running game. And, frankly, that might be the best game plan anyway. Football Outsiders ranks the Cardinals second in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and seventh in pass defense DVOA. In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Arizona's yielding 4.79 yards per rush attempt and ceded 40 receptions for 288 receiving yards on 47 targets to running backs in 2021. Finally, the Cardinals are permitting the highest average explosive run rate (17%). So, I'm all over Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.
Further, the expected absences of Adams and Lazard open the door to Green Bay using Jones and Dillon together. According to Pro Football Focus, among running backs, Jones' 18 slot snaps are the 10th-most, 28 snaps aligned wide are the third-most, and 13 inline snaps are the fifth-most -- trailing only a quartet of fullbacks. Thus, it doesn't take a creative imagination to envision Jones utilized as a running back and a wide receiver this week, allowing Dillon to possibly soak up some backfield work when Jones is used as a receiver.
Finally, Robert Tonyan ranks third on the team in routes (170), and Randall Cobb ranks fourth (123). The only players ahead of the tight end are Adams and Lazard, and Jones and Tonyan round out the quartet ahead of Cobb. Therefore, both climb the target hierarchy with the projected major absences in the receiver room. So, consider both as stacking options with Rodgers or standalone plays.
Cardinals Analysis: The Cardinals' offense is clicking on all cylinders, ranking fourth in scoring offense (32.1 points per game). It starts with their trigger man and MVP candidate Kyler Murray. The diminutive dual-threat quarterback is carving up defenses through the air, ranking ninth in passing yards per game (286.0), fourth in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (8.26), and tied for fourth in touchdown passes (17). Unfortunately, he's run for only 17 yards over the last three weeks combined.
Nevertheless, he possesses an explosive rushing element, opening the year with a rushing score in three straight games and besting 30 rushing yards in two games. Additionally, this might be the perfect matchup for him to showcase his rushing prowess in, as the Packers have coughed up the second-most rushing yards (238) to quarterbacks this year. This week's added potential for rushing output makes Murray an excellent option to use as the Captain on DraftKings and MVP on FanDuel.
This year's version of Murray is spreading the ball all over the field. Unfortunately for DeAndre Hopkins, that means his target share has cratered from 29.3% in 2020 to 16.1% this year. Further, he didn't practice on Monday or Tuesday, so he might miss this game or suffer from diminished production if he plays hurt. Still, if he plays, he's a viable option as Murray's red-zone darling. According to our red zone stats, Nuk's seven touchdowns are three more than the other receivers combined and two more than the rest of the Cardinals combined.
Murray spreading the wealth has resulted in five players recording 31 or more targets behind Nuk's team-leading 47. Christian Kirk has been the second-best receiver for Arizona by the narrowest of margins, ranking second on the team in targets (36), receptions per game (4.3), receiving yards per game (58.3), and touchdowns (four).
Although, A.J. Green is nipping at his heels with 35 targets, 3.4 receptions per game, 58.0 receiving yards per game, and three touchdown receptions. Obviously, both are stellar options. However, I'm somewhat pessimistic about their matchup. Kirk has an average depth of target of 13.2 yards downfield, and Green's mark is 11.3 yards downfield. Both could find the sledding tough this week, as the Packers have allowed the second-lowest average explosive pass rate (six percent) this season.
As a result, I'm intrigued by Chase Edmonds, Zach Ertz, and Rondale Moore as shallower depth-of-target options. Like Edmonds' running back counterpart Aaron Jones, Arizona's dynamic back often aligns as a receiver. Edmonds has aligned wide 16 times and in the slot 38 times this season. He's parlayed his receiving usage into 3.9 receptions and 24.6 receiving yards per game.
Obviously, he also adds value on the ground, rushing for 56.7 yards per game at a whopping 5.8 yards per rush attempt. Also, the matchup is good for Edmonds on the ground, with Green Bay ranking 23 in rush defense DVOA and permitting the fourth-highest average explosive run rate (14%). Healthier last week than in previous weeks, Edmonds played 69% of Arizona's snaps compared to only 30% for James Conner in Week 7. In addition, Edmonds toted the rock 15 times for 81 yards versus only 10 carries for 64 yards for Conner in a blowout win last week. So, Conner's an easy fade for me.
Import your team to My Playbook for instant Waiver Wire advice
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant - that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
