There was a barrage of last-minute signings and trades leading up to the December 2nd lockout. With teams desperate to improve before the shutdown, many players found themselves rushed into new homes. While some guys were placed into more favorable situations, others regressed. In terms of fantasy value, most changes can be thought of as lateral moves (or close to it), such as Max Scherzer moving from LA to NY, but a few others do stand out.
After sorting through more than 50 transactions, I’ve pinpointed three players whose new home will help their fantasy value and three others where it will not. All six guys should be drafted, but it’s something worth considering when making those tough draft-day decisions between them and someone else equally projected.
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Positive Changes
Steven Matz (SP – STL)
Matz threw 150 innings of quality ball last year while pitching in the unforgiving AL East. He not only won 14 games and struck out nearly a batter per inning, his HR/FB rate also dropped to its lowest since his rookie campaign, and his walks per nine fell to its lowest since 2016. Matz spent the first half of the season in Buffalo (where the Jays played their home games) and then in Toronto for the second half. Toronto was a fairly neutral site to pitch in, but Buffalo strongly favored the hitters, and the veteran lefty was still able to produce arguably his best season to date.
Matz now has the benefit of starting half of his games in St. Louis, which ranked as the top pitchers’ park last season. The competition in the NL Central is also vastly weaker than what he faced last year. The division is full of teams going through a rebuild, and the Brewers, who are known more for their pitching than their hitting.
By moving to an even more favorable environment, I fully expect Matz to continue building on his success from last year. Many shudder at the mention of Matz because of a few rough seasons in the distant past, but this year he should be a fine sixth or seventh starter in all fantasy leagues.
Alex Cobb (SP – SF)
Alex Cobb quietly had a very impressive season last year. His 94th percentile barrel ranking and 93rd percentile chase rate were welcome sights for a pitcher who was written off by many fantasy enthusiasts. He struck out 98 batters over 93.1 innings and registered a majestic 2.92 FIP. Cobb missed a large chunk of the season due to injury but closed out the year with three healthy starts producing a 3.45 ERA over 15.2 innings.
Other than a slight uptick in velocity, the pitch selection and spin rate mirrored seasons past. The main difference was Cobb’s improved command and break on his changeup. The off-speed pitch was nearly unhittable last year, but even with slightly better stuff, you have to believe getting out of Baltimore, and the AL East did him wonders.
If pitching for Anaheim helped Cobb’s overall production, there’s no telling what he can do in San Francisco. Not only has SF shown a knack for turning journeymen pitcher’s careers around (recently), but he also has the benefit of pitching half his games in one of the toughest places to hit. Road teams rarely hit home runs in AT&T Park, and for a sinker-baller who strikes out hitters at a high rate, who already limits home runs, the perfect match could be in the making.
Cobb will have to stay healthy for the majority of the season (which may be asking a lot) to make him relevant in standard leagues. But if he’s able to begin the season fully healthy and in the starting rotation, then he could far outproduce his late-round draft position.
Jon Gray (SP – TEX)
Gray is another example of an above-average arm stuck in a bad situation. Upgrading Gray after moving from Coors to Global Life Field is basically a no-brainer. He’s always had great stuff, including a high 90’s fastball, but pitching in Colorado is extremely taxing mentally as it is physically, something Gray has touched on in numerous interviews.
Moving to Arlington (only about three hours away from where he grew up in Oklahoma) should allow Gray to flourish. The Rangers’ new home has shown to be a very difficult park to hit in and ranks nearly 20 spots below Colorado, according to MLB’s park-factor rankings. Strangely enough, Gray did pitch better in Coors last year than on the road, but that was mainly due to the tougher lineups he faced outside of Colorado. Additionally, while he gave up fewer hits at home, he did give up a few more home runs.
The Rangers are an organization on the rise, and Gray should be thought of in that sense too. Target him near the end of drafts in all leagues.
Negative Changes
Kevin Gausman (SP – TOR)
Many experts are selecting Robby Ray as their top pitcher to downgrade this season, and they may be on to something. Ray’s outlandish strand rate last year topped 90 percent, which will be nearly impossible to repeat. There are also doubts he can replicate the success he had after struggling so mightily with command throughout his career. But I wouldn’t call his move to Seattle a downgrade. In fact, the location and team change should actually be extremely helpful. Leaving Toronto is a good thing for a starting pitcher, which is exactly why I believe Kevin Gausman will take a step back.
Even though rookie sensation Alek Manoah and Ray (somewhat luckily) found success last season in Buffalo and Toronto, I still err on the side of caution when it comes to selecting pitchers in the AL East. Facing those lineups on a nightly basis in those parks can be extremely taxing on a starting pitcher – something Gausman hasn’t had much success with in the past.
We all remember those early days spent in Baltimore, where every year Gausman entered the season with high expectations just to finish somewhere around league average. Granted, he was a different pitcher back then, but it still won’t be easy returning to the mashing, AL East.
San Francisco has notoriously been a pitcher’s park over the past 10 years and has been especially hard on road teams. At home last season, Gausman only allowed seven home runs and 18 total extra bases while allowing 13 home runs and a total of 35 extra-base hits on the road. He did have more innings pitched away from San Francisco, but the rate at which he gave up productive contact on the road was much worse. He also won’t have Buster Posey and his elite pitch framing abilities as his battery mate. Nor will he have the luxury of having the league’s best bullpen at his disposal to close out games and secure his wins.
While Gausman is still someone to target rather early in drafts, moving away from AT&T Park and the National League has to at least strike some concern in fantasy managers’ minds. The run support will still be in abundance, and Toronto isn’t completely hitter-friendly, but no longer being a San Francisco Giant hurts Gausman’s value.
Marcus Semien (2B/SS – TEX)
While Kevin Gausman loses a bit of value moving to Toronto, Semien loses a bit by departing. Leaving the explosive Blue Jays lineup and friendly confines of Buffalo and Toronto for spacious Global Life Field is not exactly going a boon for his totals. While runs scored and other batting stats were similar in both Toronto and Texas’ stadiums, many of the similarities can be attributed to the lack of pitching for the Rangers versus the quality of pitching for the Jays. The stadium alone is a benefactor in Toronto, but that’s not the only reason to fade Semien.
Being Sandwiched by two of the leagues elite also helped Semien’s massive production. Batting behind George Springer and having the protection of Vlad Jr., Bo Bichette, and Teoscar Hernandez is a far cry from what he’ll be paired with in Texas. The Rangers did add Corey Seager to the mix, and Adolis Garcia is an up-and-coming star, but they’ll hardly make up for what he was blessed to be surrounded with in Toronto. Plus, he’ll have to play a heavy dose of games in Oakland and Seattle which are ranked as the two worst hitting parks in the American League (while Baltimore and Boston are the two best).
Make no mistake, Marcus Semien is a very good hitter and should offer fantastic numbers across the board, but in his new home, it’s better to keep expectations in check. A 95/32/85/12 season is more likely than the 115/45/102/15 year he had with the Jays.
Mark Melancon (RP – ARZ)
Moving from San Diego to Arizona is the opposite of an upgrade (for a closer!). Even if Melancon fights off the hands of time once again, the amount of save opportunities in the desert are likely to be few are far between.
The veteran stopper was great last year, earning his first All-Star nod since 2016, but if his team isn’t winning games, he won’t have a ton of use. The good news is when the Diamondbacks do win, the score will likely be close. But moving from a contender to a team that lost 110 games last year is surely a downgrade.
With several teams lacking a true closer, Melancon’s draft stock has reached the top 150 in recent days, but that is simply too high for an aging closer on a bad team. If the 36-year-old falls to you around 180th overall, don’t hesitate to grab him. Otherwise, let the competition overpay for his services.
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Austin Lowell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Austin, check out his archive.
