Is positional scarcity a real thing, and should you take that into account when drafting a Fantasy Baseball team? If you don’t, you are likely to fall behind in drafts. The concept of positional scarcity has been long discussed, not only in Fantasy Baseball but other Fantasy sports as well. No matter what format you may be drafting in, most players are using some form of dollar value or projection to value players against one another. These methods are great but do not factor in position scarcity.
A player’s position is significant to their fantasy value. It is essential to understand positional scarcity and how it should factor into draft decisions for Fantasy Baseball preparation.
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Fantasy Baseball Positional Scarcity Strategy
I believe it is crucial to make sure we differentiate between 12- and 15-team leagues. Most home leagues are usually 12 teamers, while most NFBC formats are 15. I have aggregated several projection systems on Fangraphs to create aggregate projections and provide a dollar value per player. I ran projections for 12- and 15-team leagues because replacement level value matters.
From there, I took the top players at each position that would be startable in a 12 or 15 team league and even factored in three and five outfielder leagues. For pitchers, I assumed each team would start six starting pitchers and three relief pitchers. This won’t always be the case for every team, but there needed to be a constant for this exercise. The charts below demonstrate the projected dollar value per position, value per player, and the projected standard deviation at the position.
Right off the bat, you see the importance of factoring in positional scarcity. If you have a catcher and a shortstop valued identically from a projected dollar standpoint, the catcher is the easy choice. The drop-off at catcher is dramatic, while you can still find a solid shortstop later in drafts. In 15-team, two-catcher leagues, it is invaluable to get a high-end catcher due to the drop-off.
Replacement Level Value
What is the replacement level value? Essentially, it looks at what kind of value the following startable players at each position will provide. For a 12-team league, the replacement level value at first base is the projected stats the 13th best player offers. To provide a more accurate picture of what this looks like at each position, I have averaged the last two startable players at each position and the following two replacement-level players.
In a 12-team format, the replacement level for some positions is not bad. You could wait and take the 12th shortstop off the board and be okay. Waiting on a catcher, however, sets your team back significantly. The depth at first base is also pretty solid. Most first basemen do not provide a great batting average, and plenty of the late options provide good power. Many other analysts and I have called third base shallow, but in a 12-team league, it is not so bad. In the 15-team chart, you will see it take a hit, though.
In a 15-team league, you see the replacement level stats shift dramatically, and positional scarcity becomes stronger. If you wait until the end of drafts to take a catcher, you have a lot of catching up to do statistically. I hate paying up for a player that does not play every day like most catchers, but this should tell you what you need to know.
Just look at my Tweet below. The difference between drafting one of the top-four projected catchers and waiting until catchers 11 through 15 is about .14 points in batting average and three stolen bases (most catchers do not steal). The number of home runs is cut in half, and you lose about 30 RBI and 25 runs. That is a huge difference.
The difference in drafting one of the top four projected catchers versus a catcher 11-15.
C1-4 Average: .255 Avg/26.5 HR/4.75 SB/73.25 R/81 RBI
C11-15 Average: .241 Avg/13.75 HR/1 SB/48.25 R/51 RBI— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) February 12, 2022
Using NFBC ADP for Draft Champions since January 1, catchers 11 through 15 are going between picks 230 and 246. In that ADP range, the non-catchers are projected for a .253 batting average, 19 home runs, 7.5 stolen bases, 64 runs, and 65 RBI. While it is not a huge difference, it is enough to make a difference in the standings without you even realizing it.
How To Use Positional Scarcity To Your Advantage
We have broken down what positional scarcity is, looked at replacement level value, and even looked at what positions provide the most value. So, how do we apply it in drafts?
The goal of a draft is to maximize the number of total statistics you get on your roster. One important thing you can do is look at a player's value relative to others at their position. Let's use the catcher position once again. Salvador Perez (C - KC) is projected as a 15 dollar player when using my aggregate projections. Because some catchers are projected at a negative dollar value, having a 15-dollar Perez is extremely valuable.
Looking at earned auction value last season on Rotowire, Salvador Perez earned 37 dollars worth of value. Will Smith (C - LAD) and J.T. Realmuto (C - PHI) both earned 13 dollars. Catchers four through 12 earned a combined 21 dollars worth of value. Perez represented 44 percent of the earned value among startable catchers in 12-team leagues.
Jump forward to the shortstop position, where Bo Bichette (SS - TOR) earned the most dollars at the position with 44 dollars earned, according to Rotowire. Trea Turner (SS/2B - LAD), Fernando Tatís Jr (SS/OF - SD), and Marcus Semien (2B - TEX) all earned over 40 dollars of value. The top-12 shortstops earned a combined 379 dollars. Bichette contributed to just 11.6 percent of the position's value in 12 team leagues.
Pre-Draft Prep
A simple step to finding a player's dollar value is using the Fantasy Pros Dollar Value Calculator.
The calculator automatically creates dollar values for each player based on the number of teams you choose and the budget. These dollar values will not align with those I previously mentioned in the article. I use a pretty complex methodology to create a player's dollar value. But, the Fantasy Pros tool is fantastic to use.
Using projected dollars values can help you understand the appropriate spot to draft players, especially at scarce positions. You can calculate this by adding up the projected dollar values of each round of ADP. Then, you can look at players who exceed the average of each round.
Using Fantasy Pros Consensus ADP, Salvador Perez has an ADP of 33. For reference, the hitters going before and behind him in ADP are Whit Merrifield (2B/RF, KC) and Matt Olson (1B - OAK). For the crowd that says you are losing too much value by drafting Perez that high, he is projected to earn 33 dollars on the Fantasy Pros calculator. Olson is projected for 21 dollars and Merrifield is at 19 dollars.
Conclusion
I feel like this article has been nothing but me presenting a reason to draft catchers high. I want to make clear that this is not always the case. Positional scarcity calculations should be a tool you use in addition to other research. The flow of your draft also matters in your decisions. At the end of the day and before you draft, make sure you understand each position's depth and how to use that in drafts.
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Chris Clegg is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive and follow him @RotoClegg.
