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Dynasty Rookie Prospect Profile: Trey McBride (2022 Fantasy Football)

Dynasty Rookie Prospect Profile: Trey McBride (2022 Fantasy Football)

Trey McBride has been anointed the runaway TE1 in this draft class. I don’t necessarily disagree with the title either. And, last year’s John Mackey Award-winning as the best tight end in the nation deserves the praise. In 2021, he exploded in the stat sheets leading all FBS tight ends in targets and receiving yards. But, if you factor in wide receivers, the yardage mark was 23rd in the country.

This is a massive accomplishment for a former three-star prospect like McBride. In high school, he was a multi-sport star and two-way player in football. Not only did he rack up 1,737 receiving yards at Fort Morgan High School, but he also finished with 60 tackles for a loss, 14 sacks, and seven interceptions. He left the school as the 67th ranked tight end in the nation and seventh overall ranked prospect in Colorado (per 247Sports.com).

After a slow start in his first year at Colorado State, he quickly increased the efficiency pace. Over his final three seasons, he ranked 27th, tenth, and sixth among tight ends with 15 or more targets in Yards per route run (per PFF). This is while playing 45.6-69.3 percent of his snaps inline. McBride closes the chapter at Colorado State with a strong pro day running a 4.61 adjusted 40 with an 85th percentile speed score (per Playerprofiler.com). As a projected top 64 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, McBride will be expected to contribute from day one in many landing spots.

Trey McBride Draft Profile

School Colorado State
Height 6’4″
Weight 245
40-yard dash 4.61
Age 22
Year in school Senior
Recruit stars* 3
2022 NFL Draft prediction 2nd Round

* Recruit stars via 247Sports

Trey McBride College Statistics

Year Games played Targets (Target %) Receptions Receiving Yards Yards per Reception Catch Rate Receiving Touchdowns
2018 6 14 (2.7%) 7 89 12.7 50.0% 1
2019 12 54 (12.1%) 45 560 12.4 83.3% 4
2020 4 34 (29.3% 22 330 15.0 64.7% 4
2021 12 134 (34.0%) 90 1,121 12.5 67.0% 1

Trey McBride Dynasty Fantasy Analysis

Trey McBride’s stellar numbers on paper hold up during the film review. He increased his Yards per route run each season with wide receiver level numbers over the final two years. McBride projects as a three-down tight end, but make no mistake, his ability in the passing game will be his bread and butter.

Among FBS tight ends with 15 or more targets (*Statistics referenced per PFF*):

Year Alignment Inline / Slot or Wide Yards per route run (Rank)
2018 57.1% / 41.0% 0.60 (117th of 128)
2019 52.4% / 46.0% 1.77 (27th of 144)
2020 45.6% / 54.4% 2.60 (10th of 113)
2021 69.3% / 30.7% 2.78 (6th of 161)

McBride is smooth through his routes with loose hips and the ability to snap off sudden route breaks. While he doesn’t possess the elite-level athleticism of Travis Kelce or George Kittle, his run after the catch acceleration is more than adequate for him to be a featured part of a passing attack. In addition, he attacks the ball in the air with a soft set of hands that serve him well in traffic and contested situations. These strong mitts led to a 58.6 percent contested catch rate over his final three seasons (per PFF).

McBride can win versus linebackers in coverage and corners in the slot or on the boundary. He can stretch the seam or flex outside for the occasional go route. The latter might not be seen as often in the NFL against corners that can turn and run with him regularly. His skill as a field stretcher is real, though. He secured 46.1 percent of his deep targets (26 targets) at Colorado State with a 116.1 passer rating (per PFF). Additionally, 50 percent of his collegiate touchdown production came on targets 20+ yards downfield.

Unlocking his full potential in the NFL starts with his physicality showing up more consistently. Despite all of his positives as a receiver, tackle-breaking isn’t his strong suit at this juncture. Last year he was tied for 30th among tight ends (minimum 15 targets) with five missed tackles forced (per PFF). He only ended up with 15 missed tackles total in his four years at Colorado State. He’ll show the ability to do this with better regularity in spurts like against Toledo. McBride secured a short pass, and with a full head of steam, he stiff-armed two defenders into the dirt to pick up a chunk of yards. These types of plays need to show up more often.

His mean streak also needs to permeate his blocking more often. Among tight ends with 100 or more blocking snaps, McBride has been a top 40 pass protector in every season (18th, 39th, 39th, 39th) per PFF grades, but only once has he finished this high in run-blocking grades (sixth, 2019). His pass protection skills are more than adequate with his ability to anchor and sustain his blocks. However, he needs to flash that chip on his shoulder more in the run game. He’ll drop his head on some reps or disengage early only to find the play blown up by his assignment.

Player Comp – faster Austin Hooper

Austin Hooper has carved out a productive NFL career in all phases of the game. McBride’s receiving chops and upside is a tad higher than Hooper’s. However, Hooper has shown (2019, 787 receiving yards) that he can serve as the number two option in a passing game in a pinch.

Landing Spot and Dynasty Outlook

With DeAndre Hopkins slated to miss the first six games of the season, the Arizona Cardinals might have no choice but to feature more 12 personnel early and utilize their shiny new second-round pick, Trey McBride. The three-year contract that Zach Ertz just inked to stay in Arizona has turned McBride into southwest Dallas Goedert. A player with the talent to become an upper-echelon receiving tight end that the volume-sucking Ertz blocks. The Cardinals can move on from Ertz as soon as 2023 by saving 2 million against the cap if they cut him, but the more likely outcome, if they were to go that route, would be in 2024. If they cut him before that season, they would save eight million, so McBride could be stuck in this purgatory for the next two seasons.

CTAs


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