There are several ways to approach your startup dynasty drafts. The only wrong way is not having a plan. Before starting your draft, make sure you know all the rules and how things work. It is better to ask the commissioner a few questions before the draft than look like a fool during the draft. Once you know all the basics of your draft, you can turn your attention to your draft strategy.
One lesser-known strategy is the Value-Based Draft or VBD strategy. It’s one of the more research and mathematical heavy strategies, but it works if executed correctly. So let’s look at how you should execute it for your startup drafts.
There are several ways to approach your startup dynasty drafts. The only wrong way is not having a plan. Before starting your draft, make sure you know all the rules and how things work. It is better to ask the commissioner a few questions before the draft than look like a fool during the draft. Once you know all the basics of your draft, you can turn your attention to your draft strategy.
One lesser-known strategy is the Value-Based Draft or VBD strategy. It’s one of the more research and mathematical heavy strategies, but it works if executed correctly. So let’s look at how you should execute it for your startup drafts.
The Breakdown of VBD
The VBD draft strategy is built on having detailed statistical projections for every player and coming up with a value for the player. However, the value is not determined by the number of fantasy points he is projected to score. Instead, it is determined by how much he outscores or gets outscored by others at his position. The object of the strategy is not to score the most points but rather to outscore your opponent. In other words, you don’t want a team that can score 200 fantasy points one week but then scores only 70 points the following weeks.
If you think about it in a funny way, the highest-scoring team would primarily consist of quarterbacks with a few elite running backs and wide receivers. However, you are bound to the starting lineup your league requires you to put together. So instead of thinking about outscoring your opponent each week, you want to focus on winning as many of the individual matchups for the week. So while you want to win every matchup every week, losing the WR2 matchup isn’t as critical as losing the quarterback matchup.
Statistical Projections
If you have the time, the best way to execute this strategy is to do your research and come up with statistical projections for all 32 teams. You would then need to covert those stats into fantasy points based on your league’s scoring. Remember, smaller scoring changes do matter. One example is interceptions throw. If they cost negative two points versus negative four points, it could make a difference.
For example, Trevor Lawrence had 17 interceptions last season. At negative two points per interception, he cost you two points per game over average. However, at negative four points per interception, he cost you four points per game on average. In a six-point per passing touchdown league, the negative two points per interception are less impactful than the negative four points per interception in a four points per passing touchdown league. If you are going to do the research, make sure you account for all the scoring details.
However, if you are like most fantasy football players and don’t have the time to make your own statistical projections, find a few trusted experts and use their projections. Again, make sure you account for all the scoring details specific to your league.
How does it Work?
Let’s break it down into a simple example. You have a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, and one tight end spot. Of course, most dynasty leagues are deeper than this or at least have a SuperFlex spot, but we will keep it simple for this example.
In a matchup against your league mate, your quarterback outscores his 28-24, putting you up by four points. Your RB1 is Nick Chubb, while theirs is Jonathan Taylor. Chubb outscores Taylor 19-16, putting you up only one point in the matchup. In the RB2 matchup, yours gets outscored 12-5. You are now down six points in the matchup.
Your WR1 and your opponent’s WR1 both score 17 points, so you are still down six points. Unfortunately, your WR2 gets outscored 13-11, putting you behind by eight total points in the matchup. Thankfully, you have Travis Kelce as your TE1 while your opponent has Noah Fant. As a result, you win the tight end matchup 18-7, giving you the three-point victory for the week.
If all of that is confusing, I’ve put it together in the form of a chart.
Because Taylor only outscored Chubb by three points, he is not the best player with the most significant advantage. Rather, Kelce outscored Fant by 11 points, making him the most valuable player in this 10 player pool. Remember, the goal is to win the matchups, not score the most points possible. Another way to look at this is by hypothetically redrafting these 10 players. You and your opponent throw all 10 players into a draft pool, and you have the first overall pick. Who should you take? While Taylor had the highest score of any player, he is NOT the player you want to pick first. The correct answer is Kelce.
Another way to look at this strategy is to value positions where the depth is limited or where there is a massive drop-off in talent. The two obvious areas are quarterback and tight end. However, depending on your league's scoring system, individual defensive players (IDP), team defenses (DEF), and even kickers could be difference-makers each week.
Also, make sure you account for your starting lineup in your pre-draft work. For example, if you have a SuperFlex spot or a second starting quarterback spot in your lineup, you need to prioritize grabbing quarterbacks over other positions early in your draft. The same logic applies in heavy tight end premium leagues or leagues where you start two tight ends.
Sides Notes
Like every startup dynasty strategy, there are a few things you want to make sure you address when drafting. One is covering bye weeks. We currently don't have the upcoming NFL schedule, so accounting for bye weeks is difficult. However, the way to avoid the problem of not having a starting quarterback for Week 9 is to have depth at every position. Another thing to make sure you address is handcuffs.
You don't want to invest an early pick in Dalvin Cook and watch your league mate steal Alexander Mattison from you. While you don't want to burn two prime draft picks on one player, you should start targeting handcuffs once you've made it 60 percent of the way through your draft. In the end, grabbing the best value over your league mates matter most with this strategy.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.