Contract Year Player Outlook: Alexander Mattison (2022 Fantasy Football)
We recently look at the impact contract status has on fantasy football performance. Focusing specifically on players entering the final year of their rookie contracts, Sam Ryner put together key general takeaways and also players impacted entering the 2022 fantasy football season. Let’s take a deeper dive on one of those players, Alexander Mattison.
Other Contract Year Player Outlooks:
- Diontae Johnson
- Daniel Jones
- Dawson Knox
- Hunter Renfrow
- Irv Smith Jr.
- Mecole Hardman
- Tony Pollard
- Terry McLaurin
RB contract-season fantasy performance data (2017-21; PPR scoring)
- 46.7% produced a PPG at least one point above their career average.
- 42.6% produced a PPG at least one point below their career average.
- 11.1% produced a PPG within one point of their career average.
- 33.3% had the best season-end rank of their rookie contract.
- 31.1% had the worst season-end rank of their rookie contract.
Fun Fact: 70% of UDFA RBs who were identified as fantasy-relevant had their best season-end rank in their career during their contract season.
What this means: The RB position is similar to the QB position in that there isn’t much of a difference in the percentage of players who improved versus players who saw a dip in their PPG during the final year of their rookie contract. It’s also similar in that the top RBs are usually signed to contract extensions before playing in the final year of their rookie contract. Since 2017, the following players signed contract extensions before playing in the final season of their rookie contract: Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, and Ezekiel Elliott. Of the RBs currently ranked as RB1s according to FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings in PPR formats, only Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, and Aaron Jones have played in the final season of their rookie contracts. 75% of the players ranked as RB1s are either still playing on their rookie contract or received a contract extension before their rookie contract expired. The overall takeaway for the RB position is that contract seasons haven’t been strongly correlated to positive or negative player performance relative to their career average PPG.
Alexander Mattison 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook
Alexander Mattison has played out of his mind when given the opportunity with Dalvin Cook sidelined. In the four games since 2020 with 60% or higher snap counts, he’s averaged 23.5 rushing attempts with 148.2 total yards per game. In that quartet of games, he was the RB7, RB6, RB8, and RB4 in weekly scoring. Assuming Kevin O’Connell doesn’t upset the order of things or Ty Chandler or Kene Nwangwu don’t hop him on the depth chart, Mattison is primed to remain one of the top handcuff options in fantasy.
– Derek Brown
2022 Fantasy Football Staff Consensus Rankings
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