What are the advantages and disadvantages to this draft spot?
The advantage of drafting from the 1.12 spot is that you get back-to-back picks here. I often view my first and second round picks as a pair because I prefer to get at least one RB in the first two rounds. With two consecutive picks in your pocket, it’s not a guessing game as to who will be available with your second pick so you can map them out together.
I don’t see a major talent drop off from the second overall pick through the end of the first round, so that’s an advantage as well, but it does come with a caveat that the top RBs are likely to be off the board, which is a disadvantage. It’s also tough to wait for nearly two full rounds between picks, which will be the case from 2.01 to the next pick at 3.12.
Another aspect that often gets overlooked is that you can often miss out on a run on certain positions. When you are forced to wait for 22 picks in between yours, it’s tough to project who will still be available, especially if a certain position begins flying off the board while you’re sitting on the sidelines.
Do you have a certain strategy when picking at 1.12 in 2022?
Picking at the end of the draft makes it tougher to implement any one specific strategy. Unfortunately, your pick is entirely reliant on how the first 11 selections go. That doesn’t mean you can’t strategize, of course, but it means that you must remain adaptable and flexible.
I’m still looking to pair Joe Mixon and Travis Kelce together, but I feel good about taking Leonard Fournette or Nick Chubb here as well. My strategy doesn’t necessarily change from 1.10 or 1.11, but the need to be fluid and adaptable comes into play more quickly as you watch the first 11 picks unfold.
It becomes tougher to project how the draft board will look as you wait for the rest of the league to draft twice in between turns, but there will still be value at the turn of rounds three and four. The issue is that we are already in the RB dead zone at this time and all three of the top tight ends will likely be gone, including Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Kyle Pitts. Therefore, it stands to reason that acquiring one, or both positions with 1.12 and 2.01 is good for business.
Who are the first-round targets in this spot, and what’s the order of preference?
The preference for Joe Mixon and Travis Kelce remains for me, but even if Mixon is gone, I’d be content selecting Kelce and taking a hard look at RB with the 2.01 pick. If both of those players are gone, I’m certainly not opposed to taking a WR that deserves to be drafted much earlier. Yet again, this plays into the need to adapt and play the board to your advantage.
If the top receivers take a tumble, my preference is in order of Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, and Stefon Diggs.
Is there anyone you’re avoiding who might be available to you in the first round?
D’Andre Swift is coming off a season in which he edged out Nick Chubb in PPR points per game, 16.1 to 15.4, and was very shy of Leonard Forunette’s 18.3 PPG. If we shift from PPR points to standard, Swift falls behind Chubb and goes from RB10 to RB20. He is a questionable runner between the tackles and extremely reliant on catching passes, yet he’s going at the top of round two, sometimes sneaking into round one.
I don’t think Swift is a bad player, so I’m not avoiding him at all costs, but these numbers came with Hockenson sidelined for a few games, many were prior to Amon-Ra St Brown’s breakout, and the team added DJ Chark and Jameson Williams in the offseason. Added competition for targets, combined with questionable skills between the tackles and he plays in a bad offense that uses Jamaal Williams as the short yardage back. I much prefer Joe Mixon, and would take Fournette, Chubb, and Kamara ahead of him.
I recommend sticking close to ADP at this spot, but I’m standing firm on passing on Davante Adams. Even though I believe Adams will post a good season overall, the history of wide receivers switching teams doesn’t bode well for Adams’ fantasy forecast. Especially as he prepares to turn 30 in December, a notorious age cliff for wideouts.
I still prefer 12 players ahead of Davante Adams, as a top three to five finish at the position is tough to project for a 30 year old on a new team, but I’d feel comfortable snagging him at 2.01 if he falls so I’m not necessarily out on him.
What is the plan of attack for rounds 2-3 based on the possible first-round scenarios?
Our second-round pick here is a bit unique, obviously, as it comes directly after our first-round selection. As I touched on, I really view the two picks as a pair. It’s nearly a lock that I take Travis Kelce with one of those picks, ideally snagging RB with the other.
If that’s how the situation plays out, I love loading up on WR into the third round and beyond. If we knew Kyle Pitts would be available at the end of the third round, however, I’d happily pass on Kelce for another player and solidify the TE position with Pitts. I have a hard time seeing him, or Mark Andrews, make it through the third round, unfortunately.
If we end up without a running back after our first two picks, there are some enticing options at the end of round three, despite the fact that we are entering the RB dead zone. I’m in on JK Dobbins, so if we are still in need of an RB1 he’s the pick. David Montgomery will provide a safe floor, but is mostly uninspiring, James Conner isn’t a particularly good player but still possesses tons of TD upside, and Breece Hall will slowly take over the Jets backfield. Travis Etienne is lurking around this range as well, but I’m not as sold on him as many others are. In other words, you’d better hope JK Dobbins is still on the board if you plan to go RB at 3.12.
It’s important to know, if you haven’t read along with the other draft pick guides, that I advise you to stay clear of RB in this range as best you can. Last season, the RBs going in this range consisted of Mike Davis, Miles Sanders, and Myles Gaskin, among others, while this range featured WRs like Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase. To further illustrate the point, Kupp and Chase combined for just over 744 PPR points while Davis and Gaskin combined for 311.8. This example offers the extremes of both sides, and we may not see another Kupp or Chase type season this year, but the shock value of that comparison is sure to get my point across.
I’m a fan of many wide receivers in this range. Keenan Allen or Mike Evans would be the dream scenario, but if they are unavailable, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, and Terry McLaurin would top my board in order.
I would also consider Jaylen Waddle and DJ Moore ahead of DK Metcalf and Diontae Johnson, but you get the point. There’s a surplus of WR talent going in this range.
Who are some targets in rounds 4-7?
While it’s unlikely we find a replica of Cooper Kupp in this range again this season, the potential breakout wide receivers we can find in rounds 4-7 are plentiful. Naturally, I’m looking to fill out my WR room in these rounds, but beyond simply imagining how these players would look as my WR2 or WR3, it’s important to consider which players possess the characteristics of a breakout player.
Michael Pittman and Jaylen Waddle are young, ascending players who have the look of breakout players. Pittman will see an upgrade at QB while Waddle gets an innovative, offensive minded coach to emphasize his skill set. You can read more of my thoughts on Waddle here, but this is the prototype we are seeking in the middle rounds.
Courtland Sutton and Mike Williams stand out to me as potential steals in the fifth round. Sutton, coming off a WR19 season in 2019, was primed for an even bigger year in 2020 before an ACL tear in week two dashed those plans. It’s often forgotten that his career arc was trending in the direction of a prolific pass catcher before the injury, and now he gets to play with the best QB of his career, by far. Williams, who is being drafted as a low end WR2 has lacked consistency throughout his career thus far, but he finished as the WR9 in standard scoring last year and WR12 in PPR. He remains in the thick of his prime at 27 years old and is attached to one of the best young QBs in the game in Justin Herbert. If Williams can string together a more consistent season, he has the tools to be a league winner.
Although I understand the urge to fill the RB2 hole in this range, if it still exists, I much prefer the other position players going off the board here. I’m passing on Miles Sanders and Devin Singletary at cost in favor of another WR or a QB. Kyler Murray is lurking around as a fifth-round pick, and I like the value there if you’ve already begun to load up on wide receivers. If we pass on Kyler, I love the value of Jalen Hurts and Russell Wilson at the end of round six. We might finally get to see Russ with his toque ready to cook in Denver, and he’s not short on offensive weaponry. The Eagles seem to be committed to an uptick in the passing game, where I believe Hurts is underrated. If he can start clicking with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith through the air and combine it with his ability to torch defenses on the ground, he has overall QB1 upside.
Elijah Moore is another breakout candidate and my favorite pick of the seventh round if you can get him there. Even looking beyond Moore, I still have eyes for the WR position here. Rashod Bateman, DeVonta Smith, Gabriel Davis, and Adam Thielen are names to monitor. Smith will play a big part in Hurts’ success while Thielen was the WR16 in PPG last season. And if Davis is a consistent piece of Josh Allen’s offense, he should pay off at this price tag.
I like both AJ Dillon and Kareem Hunt in this range, especially if we still need to fill the RB2 spot, but I much prefer them in the seventh round than I do the fifth round, so pay close attention to their ADPs.
After seven rounds, which positions do you expect to be areas of strength for you, and which positions will you still need to address?
There’s no doubt that WR will be a position of strength as we move through the middle to late rounds of the draft. I love stacking WR through the middle rounds to pile up the upside, but also because the RB position becomes a value again as we get past the seventh round. Finding value and inefficiencies in the market is what the draft is all about.
Aflter showing flashes as a rookie, Rhamondre Stevenson is one of my favorite targets in the ninth round. Part of his appeal is that he has multiple avenues for fantasy production. We know the Bill Belichick is hardly committed to a starting running back in any given season, and with reports that he will have a larger role in coaching the offense, you can bet they will lean on the running game. Stevenson carried the ball 25 times through the first eight weeks last season and 108 times in the last nine weeks, producing multiple 100-yard games through the latter stretch. He also showed well as a capable pass catcher, and with James White returning from a lengthy hip recovery, we could see a bump in that department as well.
Some other running backs I like further down the funnel are Isaiah Spiller and Dameon Pierce, who each have a chance to play a major role in their rookie seasons. Gus Edwards should have a sizeable role in the Ravens run heavy offense and Alexander Mattison is the best bet for a few big games as a replacement runner behind the starter. Even Ronald Jones could resurrect his career in Kansas City with Andy Reid claiming that he will play a big role.
It’s absolutely criminal that Kadarius Toney is going as WR47, making him my favorite value in the draft this season. Toney finished his rookie season 17th in yards per route run, seventh in targets per route run, and sixth in targets per snap. A big predictor of a breakout WR is one who was able to command a heavy dose of targets, regardless of missing time. Toney passes that test with flying colors and the Giants lack a true WR1, clearing a path for Toney to become a featured player. He checks all the boxes of the next big breakout WR.
If you’ve opted to wait it out at tight end, I recommend prioritizing David Njolu in the later rounds. He’s being drafted as a low-end TE2, but many signs are pointing to a big season from the newly paid Njoku.
Injuries and bye weeks are inevitable and these late-round draft picks can help carry you through those tough times. If you’ve built your roster up and structured it the right way, you won’t need these players to carry you through the first portion of the season, but they can pay off mightily down the stretch.
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Chad Workman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from him, check out his Twitter at @tweetsbychad.
