What are the advantages and disadvantages of this draft spot?
The advantage to drafting from the 1.10 spot is that there’s no clear consensus after Jonathan Taylor at 1.01, and the talent pool doesn’t drop off dramatically by the 10th-overall selection. The best way to look at draft picks, rankings and average draft position is in tiers, and there’s an argument to be made that tier two runs into, and possibly past pick 10. That’s certainly not the case every year, so this is a good season to have a later pick.
Of course, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows picking from 1.10. Although the talent pool runs deeper than usual through the first round, you won’t get your pick of the litter. As I see it, tier two runs through pick 12 at the end of the first round, which leaves you three players from this tier to choose from, depending on how the draft falls. In other words, you are at mercy of the way the draft falls rather than setting the board yourself. That can make it tough to implement a firm strategy from the jump, especially if you are aiming for an anchor RB strategy (more on that below). It’s important to be adaptable as the picks start to fall.
Do you have a certain strategy when picking at 1.10 in 2022?
Generally speaking, I’m a fan of the anchor RB strategy — drafting an elite-level RB before loading up on WR and other positions. However, you must have the opportunity to draft that elite-level RB for this strategy to be optimal. As a former zero-RB truther, I have also become more interested in the hyper-fragile RB strategy — drafting multiple RBs early without drafting depth at the position, and then stacking WR depth later. This strategy can pay off because later-round RBs hit at a low rate, while we see later WRs breakout at a higher clip.
You don’t have to implement either one of these strategies, especially picking from 1.10 and waiting to see how the draft board falls. It is important to remember, however, that the RB dead zone is a real thing. RBs drafted in Rounds 3-6 very often bust because many of the lead backs are off the board, while WRs in that range often provide extreme value. Last season, the RBs going in this range consisted of Mike Davis, Miles Sanders and Myles Gaskin, among others, while this range featured WRs like Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase. Imagine if you drafted Cooper Kupp’s 294.5 PPR points instead of the 94.2 points from Mike Davis, who was going two spots ahead of Kupp.
The point is to say, it’s important to get a running back on your roster prior to the dead zone.
It’s worth noting that this year’s crop of dead zone running backs is far more appealing than last year’s, and could provide value, but it would be disadvantageous to be forced into taking one. At pick 1.10, we can let the board fall and take the best player available. It’s important to get a running back in the first two rounds, but don’t stray far from ADP with the 10th pick.
Who are the first-round targets in this spot, and what’s the order of preference?
At 1.10, you’re in a prime location to let an elite WR fall your way. The top of the draft is often RB-heavy, and that appears to be the case this season as well, based on current ADP. It’s a perfectly acceptable strategy to take one of those WRs, assuming a top-tier RB doesn’t fall. It’s a safe strategy, and it is known that you can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it there.
Remember, however, that eight of the 12 WR1’s in 2021 were drafted after Round 2. That doesn’t include Jaylen Waddle who finished as WR13 or Justin Jefferson who had an ADP of 24. Rounds 3-8 are oozing with upside WRs who are far more likely to reach the top 12 at their position than a running back taken in that range. As such, the ideal scenario is landing a 26-year-old running back in an elite offense who is coming off 1,519 total yards, 16 touchdowns and an RB3 season. Joe Mixon may be the only running back going in this range with RB1 overall upside, but he’s not being treated as such.
If Mixon is off the board, then it’s likely that one of the running backs projected to go earlier will be on the board, like Dalvin Cook, who would be a great value at 1.10. If you’re set on wide receiver here, I’d look at Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase and Stefon Diggs in that order.
Is there anyone you’re avoiding who might be available to you in the first round?
Avoiding the consensus top WR of the last couple of seasons feels a bit harsh, which is why I’m not avoiding him at all costs, but I prefer the players listed above to Davante Adams. To be clear, Adams is a fine player in a solid situation, and I’d be happy to roster him. I simply wouldn’t consider drafting him before the 12th pick, at least.
Admittedly, up until the last few seasons, it was rare to see a stud WR switch teams. Many expensive acquisitions were average and overpaid players unable to capitalize on a bigger role. Still, the sample size is big enough to be cautious about an aging wideout finding his footing in a new offense. As you are likely aware, Adams and Derek Carr were college teammates, but it’s been nearly a decade since the two donned the Fresno State Bulldog on their helmets and Adams will turn 30 during the season, a benchmark age for the WR cliff.
As we see more and more receivers are switching teams, the more success some of them will find and begin to shift the narrative. But it’s one thing for a 24-year-old A.J. Brown to navigate a new team. The odds are stacked against a season like we saw DeAndre Hopkins accomplish in his first season with the Cardinals. Again, I’m not suggesting Adams will bust or that he should be off your board. I believe he will have a good season, but the odds are stacked against another top-three finish at the position.
What is the plan of attack for Rounds 2-3 based on the possible first-round scenarios?
Heading into the second round with a top-shelf running back already on the roster opens many possibilities, which is one reason I love getting that RB1 in place early. If we are unable to do so, it’s much more important to get a running back in the second round. I’m not suggesting to reach on a running back, of course, but this year’s group of second-round ball carriers is a strong one.
If we got Joe Mixon or another RB in the first round, we could roll out the anchor RB strategy moving forward. With the strong group going in the second round, we could also implement the hyper-fragile RB strategy and take another one here. I believe that Leonard Fournette is undervalued, and he will certainly be a target of mine in this range. I also have Nick Chubb circled, while Alvin Kamara and Javonte Williams would make fine selections as well.
The more my strategy has come together in mock drafts, however, the more I prefer taking Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews with this selection. Kelce, going slightly ahead of the 2.03 spot, is my preferred choice, while Andrews, going slightly after 2.03, is a close second. If Kyle Pitts‘ ADP sticks in the mid-to-late third round, I’d be more than happy to take a running back here and draft Pitts at 3.10, but I anticipate his ADP creeping up as the season nears.
There are some tight ends I like deeper in the draft, but it does thin out quickly, so giving yourself a weekly advantage at tight end has never been more beneficial. Remember how Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase were going in the previously mentioned dead zone last season? With the wide receiver position being deeper than the middle of the Pacific Ocean, my preference is to stock up on WRs in that range rather than drafting an elite one earlier in the draft.
With eyes on WR at 3.10, there will be an abundance of quality options to choose from. Keenan Allen or Mike Evans would be the dream scenario here, but if they are unavailable, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman and Terry McLaurin would top my board in order.
I would also consider Jaylen Waddle and DJ Moore ahead of DK Metcalf and Diontae Johnson, but you get the point. There’s a surplus of WR talent going in this range.
Who are some targets in Rounds 4-7?
This is the best time of the draft to continue stacking talented WRs. Based on the plans laid out above, we can grab another one of the WR names mentioned above to give us a potential WR1 in the fourth round.
Obviously, we can’t expect to find an exact replica of last season’s Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase breakouts, but it’s important to consider which wide receivers have the potential to find their own breakout season and give you WR1 production. In my latest mock draft from the 1.10 spot, I was able to snag Joe Mixon in the first round and Travis Kelce in the second, before pairing them with Michael Pittman and Jaylen Waddle at 3.10 and 4.03, respectively.
Both Pittman and Waddle are young, ascending players who have the look of breakout players. Pittman will see an upgrade at QB while Waddle gets a genius running the Dolphins offense. You can read more of my thoughts on Waddle here, but this is the prototype we are seeking in the middle rounds.
The wide receiver group remains robust as we head into Round 5, so I’m not shying away from smashing that position again. As much as I’d like to snag Courtland Sutton or Mike Williams here, they look like early fifth-round selections. Beyond those two, Allen Robinson is at the plate for me with Marquise Brown on deck and Elijah Moore in the hole.
I was able to secure Marquise Brown at 5.10 in the aforementioned mock draft, and quickly stack him with QB Kyler Murray at 6.03. Stacking players is far from a requirement in redraft and I often push QB aside until later in the draft, but the other names going in this range don’t excite me. Plus, the seventh round returns with more appealing options presenting themselves, such as Rashod Bateman, who is another WR capable of taking a big leap forward this season.
Getting Bateman at 7.10 in my mock draft is a luxury that may not be made available in a real draft. After Bateman, DeVonta Smith, Gabriel Davis and Adam Thielen are names to monitor. The Eagles appear primed to take a more pass-friendly approach on offense, and Thielen was the WR16 in PPG last season. If Davis is a consistent piece of Josh Allen’s offense, he should pay off at this price tag.
It’s fair to consider filling the RB2 hole at this point, but I much prefer the wide receivers going off the board to running backs like Miles Sanders and Devin Singletary.
After seven rounds, which positions do you expect to be areas of strength for you, and which positions will you still need to address?
At this point, we have flipped wide receiver from a weakness to a position of strength. Attacking the WR position in the middle rounds with Michael Pittman, Jaylen Waddle, Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman leaves us with a deep group. Adding Joe Mixon, Travis Kelce and Kyler Murray along the way solidifies a well-balanced roster, apart from RB2 and beyond.
One of the reasons I love this roster build is that the RB position becomes a value again and finding value and inefficiencies in the market is what the draft is all about. After hammering the WR position through the middle rounds and finding a ton of value, the position begins to slip. Now we can stack depth at RB with players who are undervalued, in most cases because they share a backfield. There are not many true workhorses left, but here we can find steady players with a consistent role who have upside for more.
Following along with my mock draft, I made Kareem Hunt the 87th pick of the draft at 8.03 and followed it up with Rhamondre Stevenson at 9.10. Stevenson is one of my favorite targets in this range because we saw the talent flash last year, but he also has multiple avenues for fantasy production. We know Bill Belichick is hardly committed to a starting running back in any given season, and with reports that he will have a larger role in coaching the offense, you can bet they will lean on the running game. In addition, Stevenson toted the rock 25 times through the first eight weeks last season and 108 times in the last nine weeks, producing multiple 100-yard games through the latter stretch. He also showed well as a capable pass catcher, and with James White returning from a lengthy hip recovery, we could see a bump in that department as well.
The anchor RB strategy of grabbing one early means we must pile depth in the later rounds. Isaiah Spiller and Dameon Pierce are intriguing rookies that have major upside in their respective offenses. Gus Edwards should have a sizeable role in the Ravens’ run-heavy offense and Alexander Mattison is the best bet for a few big games as a replacement runner behind the starter. Even Ronald Jones could resurrect his career in Kansas City with Andy Reid claiming that he will play a big role.
I could go on and on with the late-round running backs, but we are mostly looking for players who have the potential and talent to explode if/when called upon, and ideally, we can pair that up with players like Stevenson who have multiple paths to fantasy production.
This is where league winners come from. If you’ve built your roster up and structured it the right way, you won’t need these players to carry you through the first portion of the season, but they can pay off mightily down the stretch.
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Chad Workman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from him, check out his Twitter at @tweetsbychad.
