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How to Draft From the 1.04 Pick (2022 Fantasy Football)

How to Draft From the 1.04 Pick (2022 Fantasy Football)

Welcome fantasy friends and foes to How to Draft from the 1.04 spot in 2022 Fantasy Football. The lineup for this exercise consists of QB-1, RB-2, WR-3, TE-1, and FLEX-2 in a 12-team half-PPR draft.

Check out who I selected and why in the first seven rounds of the mock draft. I provide my analysis and strategy by answering seven questions to guide fantasy managers given the 1.04 in their fantasy football drafts.

Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

What are the advantages and disadvantages of this draft spot?

You were lucky enough to get the fourth pick in your fantasy football draft. With the fourth pick, fantasy managers can select an elite fantasy asset — a difference-maker in your weekly lineup. You will have picks only six selections apart from each other, so you can forecast with more accuracy who might be available with your next pick. Furthermore, tracking other league members’ rosters becomes more succinct. On the other hand, picking fourth takes you out of the running for Jonathan Taylor. This also forces you to wait long stretches between picks which can be extremely frustrating and detrimental to your draft processes.

Do you have a certain strategy when picking at 1.04 in 2022?

My preference would be to secure a stud running back in the first round, whether it’s Austin Ekeler or Derrick Henry. If both backs are gone, I might be forced to pivot to Cooper Kupp. Positional scarcity will drive the upcoming draft decisions. The running back well dries up quickly after 20 picks, so I am not reaching for a lower-tier running back just to fill the lineup spot. Instead, I’m going after the best player available. The tight-end group of Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts is very attractive, but I am hoping to see either Davante Adams or CeeDee Lamb available in Round 2. Kicking off my draft with Kupp and Adams/Lamb sets me up beautifully in any PPR format. Grabbing one of the elite tight ends would be ideal. My focus is typically on capturing the best players available and not being so narrowly focused on filling lineup spots.

Who are the first-round targets in this spot, and what’s the order of preference?

My order of preference would be Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, and Cooper Kupp. I hope Ekeler is still there because he is a dynamic fantasy asset playing for an ascending Los Angeles Chargers offense that finished fifth in total points last season. Ekeler averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game last season, which ranked behind only Jonathan Taylor for the highest average in 2021. He scored 20 touchdowns and grabbed 70 receptions, totaling 1,459 scrimmage yards in 15 games. Derrick Henry is your quintessential workhorse back, and his injury killed plenty of fantasy dreams last season. His guaranteed volume in a Tennessee Titans offense that moved wide receiver A.J. Brown, during the draft will likely increase this season. Henry produces video game numbers when healthy, and if it weren’t for lack of involvement in the passing game, he would be the perennial top pick in fake football annually. Finally, Cooper Kupp had an out-of-this-world 2021 season culminating in a Super Bowl victory. It will be nearly impossible to match or surpass his outrageous 2021 numbers, but anything close results in Kupp being a viable first-round fantasy selection.

Is there anyone you’re avoiding who might be available to you in the first round?

I love Christian McCaffrey as a player on the field, and that’s the rub. McCaffrey has only appeared in 10 games across the past two seasons. Every fantasy manager knows McCaffrey is the king of fantasy running backs when he is healthy. In his last two full seasons, the former Stanford Cardinal finished as the RB2 and the RB1.

In the first round, fantasy managers must focus on mitigating the risk. The heavy usage McCaffrey absorbed, especially his 403 touches in the 2019 All-Pro performance, has taken its toll on the Carolina Panthers running back.

The Carolina Panthers have a new offensive coordinator in Ben McAdoo, who likes to utilize more two-RB formations, which should lead to McCaffrey being moved around the offense. The Panthers also signed former Titan D’Onta Freeman, who should beat out Chuba Hubbard and slot in as McCaffrey’s backup. Foreman played well for Tennessee while Derrick Henry was out and should provide quality production when spelling McCaffrey.

McCaffrey is exceptional in PPR formats, with 100-plus receptions in 2018 and 2019. There is no doubt that McCaffrey is a first-round pick, but he is better suited and possesses more value if fantasy managers can select him toward the latter half of the first round. Still only 25, McCaffrey can be a league-winner at the fourth spot, but he cannot win your matchups from the sidelines.

What is the plan of attack for rounds 2-3 based on the possible first-round scenarios?

Securing a top running back in the first round, I will focus on a wide receiver or tight end with either of my next two picks. However, if Nick Chubb or Javonte Williams somehow slips to the 21st pick, I am jumping all over those elite running backs. Starting my roster with an Ekeler/Henry with either Chubb/Williams will be a fantastic path to the championship! If no top running backs are available, I’m attacking the WR position or keeping my eye out for an elite TE such as Mark Andrews or Kyle Pitts. Pairing up the already mentioned running back pairs with a top-notch tight end allows me to dive into the deep wide receiver pool and take advantage of draft capital value.

Who are some targets in rounds 4-7?

Depending upon my success in the first three rounds, I’m gearing up to fill my RB/WR/flex spots in these rounds. Looking for a balanced roster allows me to let the draft board fall to me, but I have certain players I am targeting. I started my draft going RB/WR/TE, so I am looking for an upside running back in these rounds with the bullseyes on J.K. Dobbins, Travis Etienne, Kenny Walker, and A.J. Dillon with Antonio Gibson and Clyde-Edwards Helaire as backup options. In PPR leagues, WR with this draft capital will score more than these RB. I am bullish on selecting two of the following wideouts: Terry McLaurin, Brandin Cooks, Rashod Bateman, Courtland Sutton, Darnell Mooney, Jerry Jeudy, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Each of these wideouts presents fantasy production that could rival my WR1. Ideally, I’m drafting McLaurin, who I think is braced for a breakout season with new quarterback Carson Wentz‘s massive upgrade over Tyler Heinicke and an improved supporting cast.

The Commanders will pair up McLaurin with 2022 first-round pick Jahan Dotson, and we should see the return of multi-dimensional Curtis Samuel. My next favorite option is the underrated Houston Texans’ Brandin Cooks. Cooks is the Texans’ top target and set a career-high in targets with 134 last season with rookie quarterback Davis Mills. With Mills having a season under his belt, we should see improvement from Mills in an offense devoid of playmakers. Cooks finished as WR20 last season and should improve the ranking this season.

Finally, Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Rashod Bateman should take a big jump in fantasy production with an increased role in the Ravens’ offense. The Ravens traded wide receiver Marquise Brown during the draft, which leaves the passing game with Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and Batemen. The Ravens are not a pass-friendly offense, but we should Bateman step up this season, reach six to eight targets per game, and be an excellent WR3 on my fantasy roster. The remaining wideouts to draft in this portion of the draft are the Chicago Bears’ Darnell Mooney, who will watch the maturation of Justin Fields directly into a PPR monster career season. Jerry Jeudy will finally have a good quarterback with the acquisition of Russell Wilson to throw him the ball, and I will be intrigued to see what level he takes his game to this season. Building a solid foundation with the balance of elite and upside players brings home championships.

After seven rounds, which positions do you expect to be areas of strength for you, and which positions will you still need to address?

Heading into round eight, my current lineup is:

RB-Derrick Henry, AJ Dillon

WR-CeeDee Lamb, Terry McLaurin, Rashod Bateman, Darnell Mooney

TE-Kyle Pitts

In a single quarterback format, I am not concerned that I didn’t select a quarterback up to this point. Based on current rankings, a handful of viable fantasy quarterbacks are still on the board. Russell Wilson being traded to the Denver Broncos increases his fantasy value. There are plenty of weapons in the Broncos’ offense with the RB tandem of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon and a trio of wideouts that should thrive with Wilson behind center in Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, and Tim Patrick. More importantly, Wilson will no longer be handcuffed by Pete Carroll, and we will finally see Russell Wilson cook. A sneaky QB selection is the Los Angeles Rams, Matthew Stafford. Fresh off a Super Bowl win and a 2021 season that saw Stafford throw for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns. Stafford welcomes Allen Robinson as another weapon along with Sean McVey’s play-calling should lead to another outstanding season and surpass his QB5 ranking from last season. Aaron Rodgers is always an option as your fantasy quarterback, even with the offensive downgrade of losing all-world wide receiver, Davante Adams. Three dark horse candidates to consider with later picks are Las Vegas Raiders Derek Carr, who welcomes his friend Davante Adams to the Raider offense and has a new play-caller and head coach in Josh McDaniels. Minnesota Vikings Kirk Cousins, who has finished as a top 12 QB in three of the last four seasons. The remaining quarterback I would target is the Jacksonville Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence, who will now have a legit NFL coach and a team that surrounded him with plenty of weapons.

My apparent weakness is at running back, with one being a workhorse back and the other carrying tremendous upside and an injury away from being a top-five running back. I will need to focus my energy on improving this weakness. Possible available candidates will be Devin Singletary, Rashad Penny, Chase Edmunds, and Raheem Mostert. Not the who’s who of running backs but serviceable at the minimum as flex or bye week options.

I love my wide receiver group. There is plenty of upside with each receiver being the WR1 on their respective teams, and I should own the best wide receiver group in the league.

I used an early pick on the Atlanta Falcons tight end, Kyle Pitts because I projected Pitts to finish as the TE1 in 2022. I took the plunge on Pitts in the third round to secure a super top-heavy position. If I didn’t grab a TE early, I would have passed on the position until the double-digit rounds to consider selecting one. Instead, the Falcons’ offense will feature Pitts and work in first-round pick wide receiver Drake London. However, please make no mistake about it. Pitts is the alpha dog in this offense and will be the go-to option for new quarterback Marcus Mariota. Pitts entered his rookie season with lofty and unreasonable expectations and was called a bust in some NFL circles. If a bust can produce 68 catches for 1,108 receiving yards (third among tight ends), I can’t wait to see what Pitts does for an encore in 2022.


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Dennis Sosic is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Dennis, check out his archive and follow him @CALL_ME_SOS.

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