With the second half of the season and the MLB trade deadline approaching, both MLB general managers and fantasy baseball managers feel the urgency to get deals done.
Both types of managers have to decide whether they are buyers or sellers and whether they should make a playoff push or start preparing for next season.
Below are some players to target in fantasy baseball that could help strengthen teams in the second half of the season. They are a mix of buy-low players, buy-high players and everything in between.
Among seven qualified catchers, Will Smith has the best walk rate, chase rate, swinging strike rate, barrel rate and the most home runs. He is top three in batting average, hard hit rate and contact rate.
His discipline numbers are some of the best of his career, but his batting average is only seven points higher than his career batting average — expect that to change in the second half.
His strikeout rate is down five percent from last season and is the lowest of his career. His line drive rate is up from last season, but his BABIP and batting average are only marginally improved. His barrel and hard-hit rates are the second best of his career. Plus, his HR/FB rate is three percent lower than his career average.
Not only should his batting average improve the rest of the way, but his home run rate should as well, making him an excellent second-half target at catcher.
Despite increasing his line drive rate to 21% from 20% in the last two weeks, Rhys Hoskins has seen a decrease in his BABIP and batting average. Both are likely to improve if he maintains a high LD%.
Hoskins has made other improvements from previous seasons that suggest a boost to his batting average is on the way. His chase rate and swinging strike rates are down, while his overall contact rate is up.
Among qualified first basemen, Hoskins has the sixth-best barrel rate, the seventh-best hard-hit rate and a HR/FB rate in line with his career average, meaning his home run pace should continue.
Hoskins is not quite a “buy low,” but is likely undervalued and could be a player that fantasy managers could get for a reasonable price.
Jazz Chisholm is another player likely to see some second-half improvements to an already solid 2022 campaign.
He improved his line drive rate, strikeout rate and walk rate from last season, but has gained just six points in batting average. His BABIP is suppressed, and as he experiences positive regression to his BABIP, his average should improve.
Chisholm has just under half as many plate appearances as last season but is four home runs shy of his 2021 mark. This is thanks to the middle infielder nearly doubling his 2021 barrel rate to 16.6%, and improving his hard-hit rate to 45.7%. With an improvement to his launch angle, Chisholm has also dropped his groundball rate and increased his HR/FB rate.
He may be easier to acquire since he is injured but could command a steep price (especially in dynasty leagues). Even still, he could be worth it for the rest of the season with the potential to get close to the 30/30 club.
Third base is a top-heavy position this season, so Austin Riley is going to be a high-priced target in many leagues but should be worth it.
Riley is already at 27 home runs in 400 plate appearances after hitting 33 in 662 PA’s last season thanks to his elite Statcast numbers. His barrel and hard-hit rates are the best among qualified third basemen. Among all qualified players, his barrel rate is ninth and his hard-hit rate is third.
Although his home run rate may regress slightly due to a higher than usual HR/FB rate, he could still hit 40 or more homers this season. Last year, only five players reached that total.
Because many of Riley’s plate discipline metrics are in line with his numbers from the previous two seasons, it is reasonable to expect his batting average to continue to hover in the .280 range. Only Fernando Tatis Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit 40 or more home runs with a batting average over .280 last season.
Riley could be extremely valuable to fantasy managers for the rest of the season, making him a potentially huge trade asset and target.
Dansby Swanson has hit in the top third of the order in 52 out of 94 games this season and has only hit lower than seventh in the order 31 times. His value has certainly increased since pre-season when many assumed he would hit either eighth or ninth.
Since then, Swanson has shown why he is so valuable, racking up 15 home runs and 14 steals, along with a .294 batting average.
Even with a 23.3% line drive rate, his .374 BABIP is likely to regress closer to his .313 career norm, which also means his batting average should regress.
Swanson’s value is at its peak right now but should lessen as he regresses some after the break. The shortstop should continue to maintain an average somewhere around .275 while continuing to hit for some power.
His 12% barrel rate is second among qualified shortstops and his 45.3% hard-hit rate is fifth best among qualified shortstops; both are career bests for Swanson and factor into a slight increase in his HR/FB rate.
Trading for Swanson in the next week or two could make him more affordable, and although he may lose some batting average, he should continue to help in other areas.
Adolis Garcia is another player who has made improvements across the board from last season.
He’s increased his walk rate while decreasing his strikeout rate. His line drive rate is 24%, the highest of his career. Garcia also increased his hard-hit rate to 46.1%, the best of his career.
Most of the outfielder’s plate discipline metrics are consistent, or slightly worse than last season, which many may note as a reason why his average is lower than last year, but this is not taking into account a suppressed BABIP and a high line drive rate.
The high LD% and low BABIP imply that Garcia has hit into some bad luck, especially considering the above-average Statcast numbers. This likely means fantasy managers will see an improvement in his batting average over the rest of the season.
Garcia should also see an increase in home runs, as his HR/FB rate is slightly under his career average while maintaining and improving in many batted ball categories.
Last year, 14 players had double-digit home runs and stolen bases by the All-Star break. Garcia had 22 home runs and eight steals. This season, 14 players have double-digit homers and stolen bases, and Garcia is one of them.
Look for him to continue to get better in the second half, and try to acquire him now.
Charlie Morton has a 4.45 ERA, but a 3.71 xFIP and a 3.60 SIERA. His ERA is second-worst among qualified starters with a K/9 rate of nine or better. For qualified pitchers with a K/9 rate of 10 or better, he is the only one with an ERA above 3.55.
Thankfully, for Morton and those that roster him, many of the issues that have caused a spike in his ERA are either fixable or the result of some misfortune.
One issue that has plagued Morton so far is a 1.36 HR/9 rate, the second-worst of his career. This issue is also reflected in his 15.3% HR/FB rate, which is above both his career and league average. He should likely see some positive regression throughout the rest of the season, which should contribute to a lower ERA.
Morton has also allowed an above-average amount of hard contact. Much of that hard contact has turned into line drives or home runs, while just 37.6% of hits against him turn into ground balls (his career GB rate is 51.8)%.
Those issues are fixable for him and have a great deal to do with his pitch performance. His fastball is being hit at a 23-degree launch angle, and his cutter is being hit at a 28-degree launch angle. All of his other pitches have a launch angle in the single digits.
His fastball has a .271 batting average against this season, as opposed to a .233 BAA last year. Batters are also hitting his fastball harder than last season — 91 MPH exit velocity this year vs. 88 MPH last year.
While he is inducing whiffs on his cutter, it has a zero percent putaway rate; it was at 7.7% last season. His sinker is not inducing many whiffs because it is being left in the zone too often. He is doing something right with his curveball, though. It has a .190 BAA, 39.9% whiff rate and a 26% putaway rate.
Morton is a veteran who likely knows that his cutter, fastball and sinker could use some tweaking. The All-Star break is the perfect time to do that.
Watch for Morton to make some adjustments, and start pitching into some good luck. He is a perfect buy-low candidate to add for the rest of the season.
Honorable Mention Trade Targets: Ryan Mountcastle, Brandon Drury, Kevin Gausman, Frankie Montas
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