A great way to get a sense of players to target and a void is to see how our expert rankings compare to average draft position (ADP). If the ADP is higher than the expert rankings, you may want to consider these players at their current draft-day cost. Let’s take a look at players our expert consensus likes less than ADP.
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
6 Running Backs Experts Like Less Than ADP
Derrick Henry (TEN)
ECR RB5 | ADP RB4
It doesn’t feel great to fade a 6-3, 247-pound force of nature who’s averaged 115.5 rushing yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game over the last three seasons. But time isn’t kind to running backs, and Henry is entering his age-28 season. Maybe Henry is such a remarkable physical specimen that he’ll defy the age curve. However, we know that betting on running backs in their late 20s is generally imprudent.
Henry is coming off a significant foot injury, and he has a lot of mileage on the odometer. Henry has 1,664 career touches (playoffs included), with 65.1% of those touches coming in the last three years. That’s a risky profile for a player who’s typically a top-five draft pick.
Javonte Williams (DEN)
ECR RB14 | ADP RB11
Running back Melvin Gordon signed a one-year deal with the Denver Broncos, ultimately halting the Javonte Williams 2022 breakout season. The idea of Williams playing a three-down role was salivating, but Gordon’s return should not be overlooked after a seriously underrated 2021 campaign.
MG3’s return definitely hurts Williams’ top-tier fantasy ceiling. He’s going to split work with another capable back in Gordon which is exactly what new head coach Nathaniel Hackett desires and spoke on at the NFL owners meeting in March.
However, keep in mind that Williams finished 13th in touches last season (246, 14.6 per game) and would be the favorite to take another step forward in the passing game – Aaron Jones-esque – after finishing as one of two rookie RBs inside the top-15 in route participation in 2021: Najee Harris (first) and Javonte Williams (13th).
Williams falls just out of the fantasy RB1 conversation for me in redraft and best ball, but he’s right on the cusp. I don’t think he can be ranked worse than RB15 considering that’s where he finished as a rookie amid a split workload in a much worse offensive environment.
David Montgomery (CHI)
ECR RB18 | ADP RB16
Despite being an entrenched workhorse, David Montgomery finished as a top-24 running back in fewer than half of his contests last season (46%). Former sixth-rounder Khalil Herbert was a top-12 running back in two of his five games last season when he received at least a 50% snap share.
Just don’t draft David Montgomery. Projected volume is the only reason he’s going where his ADP is, but a new coaching staff could approach the backfield differently. In my heart of hearts, I think Herbert is the better, more explosive back. Monty finished outside the top 24 in more than half of his games last season. His 2022 ADP hits inside the top-20 RBs. No thanks.
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.
Antonio Gibson (WAS)
ECR RB21 | ADP RB19
Antonio Gibson has been a solid option over the last two seasons as the RB16 and RB17 in fantasy points per game. He also ranked tenth in yards per route run, fifth in evaded tackles, and 14th in juke rate. He was tied for seventh in carries inside the five-yard line and eighth in weighted opportunities. We already know the pass game usage is capped with J.D. McKissic resigned, but now the goalline could be in jeopardy with Brian Robinson on the depth chart. The team has talked about lightening Gibson’s load, so the threat of Robinson is real, especially if Gibson keeps putting the ball on the turf. Since 2020 he’s tied with Ezekiel Elliott for the most fumbles (six) in the NFL among running backs.
Josh Jacobs (LV)
ECR RB24 | ADP RB20
Josh Jacobs was a volume hog last year, ranking ninth in opportunity share and weighted opportunity, but that will be difficult to repeat in 2022. Jacobs’ ranking of RB23 in ECR is ambitious, considering he’ll be sitting on the sidelines on many passing downs. Brandon Bolden, Kenyan Drake and Ameer Abdullah ranked fourth, sixth and 15th in yards per route run last year among running backs (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). If any of these backs also eat into his red-zone work, he’s toast in 2022.
James Robinson (JAC)
ECR RB43 | ADP RB38
James Robinson operated as the pseudo bellcow for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2021 after Travis Etienne went down with a preseason injury. He posted inconsistent fantasy production as the RB24 overall and in points per game in 14 games amid horrible usage deployed by the 2021 Jags coaching staff.
His touches varied from 21-to-2 depending on the week, so he was nearly impossible to project in fantasy. It’s possible that 2022 presents a similar issue with Robinson as Etienne makes his professional debut.
But JRob does deserve credit for maintaining efficient play whenever he got opportunities last season, finishing 11th in yards after contact per attempt (3.3) and 8th in red-zone touchdowns (8).
His real hurdle for fantasy relevance besides fending off a 2022 first-round running back is attempting a speedy recovery from a torn Achilles suffered in late December. He was unable to participate in OTAs, while his backfield counterpart is full-go as the team installs the new-look Doug Pederson offense. The former undrafted free agent is not guaranteed to be ready for Week 1. Although he did avoid being placed on the PUP list, which is encouraging for his short-term availability.
It’s hard to envision Robinson being anything more than a speculative zero-RB target, with hopes that he can recapture 2020 form if given the volume. However, Pederson’s track record of deploying a multitude of backs does make it seem like Robinson will be a 1B to Etienne’s 1A, with his clearest path to fantasy relevance coming through goal-line opportunities.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
