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Overvalued Wide Receivers Based on ADP (2022 Fantasy Football)

by Matt Gruber | @FF_Worm | Featured Writer
Aug 15, 2022
D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore’s current ADP may be his ceiling, which is not a good sign going into the season.

There is a multitude of ways to gain an edge over your league mates when drafting. From stacking to playoff matchup correlation, the list goes on and on. To me, the most important strategy is to draft for value. Drafting a player whose ADP is at his ceiling is typically an avoid. When we make draft picks, we want to select the players who have a chance to crush their ADP. Finding this value when good players fall is only half the battle. The other half is knowing which to leave on the draft board. Understanding which players are being overvalued based on their ADP is a great advantage to have when it comes to drafting.

Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.

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Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

D.J. Moore (WR – CAR)
ADP: WR18

Never finishing better than the WR16 in his four-year career, D.J. Moore is being drafted as the 18th wide receiver off the board. While he is incredibly talented, talent doesn’t always lead to elite fantasy production. See Terry McLaurin.

Blame poor quarterback play or blame the coaching staff. Either way, the reality of the situation is that Moore is still stuck in quarterback purgatory. Sure, Baker Mayfield may be an upgrade from Sam Darnold, but is it enough to move the needle and boost Moore into that WR1 status? Probably not.

It feels like the fantasy community is drafting Moore at his ceiling. Failing to score more than four touchdowns in any season, drafters are putting a lot of faith in him breaking that trend. I’m not sold. Mayfield’s career high in passing touchdowns in a season is 27. This came during his rookie year. Since then he threw for 22, 26 and 17 touchdowns in the next three seasons. That would rank him 17th, 15th and 22nd, respectively.

I much rather draft guys like Courtland Sutton (WR24) or Allen Robinson (WR31) as my WR2. Each of these guys is on a much better offense with elite quarterback play. They both possess a ceiling that Moore simply does not.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
ADP: WR28

There is no denying that what Amon-Ra St. Brown did down the stretch last season was incredible. However, I fear the fantasy community may be getting tunnel vision when evaluating him. Being drafted as the WR28, this is a bit too rich for my blood.

A clear league winner, averaging 25.2 fantasy points per game from week 13 on, these numbers are a bit misleading. During this run, key fantasy producers in D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson were sidelined with injuries. These injuries may have pressured the offense to run through St. Brown.

While it is always encouraging to see a player step up when called upon, it would be difficult for St. Brown to sustain this type of production. Not only will Swift and Hockenson be healthy, but the Detroit Lions added some additional weapons to the offense. First-round pick Jameson Williams will be back from an ACL injury at some point and newly added veteran wide receiver DJ Chark will now be in the mix.

Ranking 15th in passing attempts, 18th in passing yards and 16th in passing touchdowns last season, I don’t think the volume will be there for St. Brown to hit his current ADP. With more weapons on offense to spread the ball around and a middle-of-the-road passing attack, I much rather draft guys like Darnell Mooney (WR25) or Rashod Bateman (WR38), wide receivers who are the clear first target on their team.

Honorable Mention: Amari Cooper (WR – CLE) Overall ADP: #64 (WR26)

CTAs


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