As a sleepy and messy Thursday Night Football game between the New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals drew to a close, the San Francisco 49ers made late-night headlines by trading for RB Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers. In exchange, the Panthers are reportedly receiving 2023 second, third and fourth-round picks and a fifth-rounder in 2024.
From a fantasy perspective, this trade instantly boosts the value of McCaffrey while presumably burying Jeff Wilson, Tevin Coleman, Tyrion Davis-Price and Elijah Mitchell-unless, of course, one or more of those names could be on the move next. In Carolina, D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard figure to compete for playing time and touches.
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The Carolina Panthers are trading RB Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers, according to a report from ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter. Multiple draft picks are reportedly headed to the Panthers. (Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter)
Fantasy Impact: The Panthers fired HC Matt Rhule a week ago, and there were rumors immediately after his removal that McCaffrey and others could be available via trade. On the Carolina side of things, this immediately makes D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard relevant and worth stashing in all fantasy formats. For the 49ers, McCaffrey immediately steps into the lead role in a running back-friendly offense but buries the likes of Jeff Wilson Jr., Tevin Coleman, Tyrion Davis-Price, and Elijah Mitchell for the foreseeable future.
Fantasy Football Takeaways & Implications
A trade tidal wave just washed over the fantasy landscape. Christian McCaffrey is now a San Francisco 49er. The RB4 in fantasy football joins an offense that’s tenth in yards per play, 19th in total points scored, and 17th in total yards. What does it mean for fantasy?
Let’s get this out of the way. In case anyone was wondering, McCaffrey remains a top-five running back in fantasy. Jeff Wilson has been holding down the fort, but now he’ll be regulated to a backup role along with the other warm bodies in the running back room. McCaffrey has shown no signs of slowing down. He’s first in snap share, first in opportunity share, and second in weighted opportunities averaging 19.7 touches and 111.7 total yards. McCaffrey is 11th in evaded tackles, tenth in breakaway runs, and ninth in yards created per touch (per Playerprofiler.com).
As good as McCaffrey is, he couldn’t be the entire offense in Carolina. The Panthers are a dumpster fire ranked 31st in red zone scoring attempts per game. The 49ers should offer McCaffrey, 33rd in red zone opportunities, more touchdown chances. San Francisco is 22nd in red zone scoring attempts per game. The big differentiator is that the 49ers are third in red zone rushing rate. So here come the touchdowns for McCaffrey, who only has three for the season.
The 49ers have not thrown to their running backs this season, as they have the seventh-lowest target share to the position. That will change with the arrival of McCaffrey. McCaffrey might not see the 24.3% target share (first) that he saw in Carolina, but make no mistake, he’ll be involved in the short passing game with the pop gun arm of Jimmy Garoppolo. The added fallout effect of McCaffrey’s arrival could be Deebo Samuel seeing more targets in the intermediate and deep portions of the field. Samuel has seen his aDOT fall from 8.1 last year to 5.1 (97th) this season.
This will add to Samuel’s value and the San Francisco offense overall. Last season Samuel was first in yards per route run and second in passer rating when targeted deep (minimum ten deep targets, per PFF).
This move is fantastic for the 49ers, Christian McCaffrey, and everyone with McCaffrey in fantasy football.
– Derek Brown
Never mind that the 49ers probably gave up too much draft capital for a 26-year-old running back who’s been less than durable in recent years. San Francisco’s deal for Christian McCaffrey was seismic — an earth-shaker in both the NFL and the fantasy realm.
Some quick thoughts on the fantasy repercussions:
- McCaffrey is once again fantasy football’s RB1. He wasn’t that far from it even in a putrid Carolina offense. But now? With an offense that can sustain drives and put CMC in position to score a bevy of touchdowns? Yes, please.
- While McCaffrey investors should be over the moon about this deal, it doesn’t help them in Week 7. Will CMC suit up and play for the Niners this weekend? Maybe. If he does, it’s hard to imagine he’ll play more than 10-15 snaps. I’ve tentatively slotted him as the RB19 for this week.
- Jimmy Garoppolo is an average NFL starter at best, but the addition of McCaffrey could push him into low-end QB1 territory. I suspect that Jimmy G will be eagerly leverage McCaffrey’s exceptional pass-catching talents. CMC’s contributions as a pass catcher will give Garoppolo’s numbers a nice boost.
- The McCaffrey acquisition probably won’t have a major affect on WR Brandon Aiyuk or TE George Kittle. It could lop off about 10% of Deebo Samuel‘s value, however. What’s the incentive to use Deebo in the running game when you have CMC in your backfield? Oh sure, Deebo will still get a few carries on gadget plays. But a significant role in the running game? Doubtful.
- As for the fantasy value Elijah Mitchell and Jeff Wilson … well, fellas, it was fun while it lasted.
Let’s not forget about the Panthers (as much as we might like to) …
The Carolina backfield is probably going to be a timeshare between D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. Foreman is a big dude, so he’s destined to be the goal line guy. But Foreman isn’t much of a pass catcher. He has 18 receptions in 32 career games. Hubbard will likely get most of the passing-down snaps, and he might get some early-down work, too. The guess here is that Foreman will have slightly more fantasy value than Hubbard.
But let’s be clear: This is a bleak situation. Yes, opportunity counts for a lot at the RB position. But the Panthers will score very few touchdowns this season. They won’t have many long, sustained drives. They’ll probably lead the league in three-and-outs. Whichever Carolina running back leads the way in this backfield, he’ll probably have midrange RB3 value at best.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.