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UPDATE NOTE (Sat. 11/12, 1 pm ET): This piece has been updated.
I’m writing this sentence on the morning of Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022.
A couple thoughts.
- Whether you’re political or apolitical, whether you’re conservative, liberal or moderate, whether you’re voting or not — today you have the opportunity to voice your opinion with your vote and to shape the future of your city, county, state and country. That’s a beautiful fact.
- Regardless of today’s outcome, we’re all on the same side. We’re all Americans. It’s easy to focus on what divides us, but what unites us is more important.
Today marks not just the midterms. It’s also the midway point of the NFL regular season. We’re nine full weeks through the 18-week campaign.
As stupid as this sounds, football is something that unites people.
We all love this sport.
I was born and raised in Texas. High school football on Friday. College football on Saturday. And the Cowboys on Sunday.
Football’s great, but for me it has always been just as much about community as the game itself.
Community is important, especially now.
Winning. Losing. Whatever.
People are what matter.
Whether your game is fantasy football or politics, the community — our indivisibility as a people — is the priority.
Freedman’s Favorites for Week 10
Here are my Week 10 favorites. These are the players who (in some combination) …
- Will probably be high in my rankings relative to the expert consensus rankings (ECR).
- Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
- Possess underappreciated upside.
- Have advantageous matchups.
- Appear in my DFS player pool.
- Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
- Are on teams with player-friendly Week 10 betting odds.
- Stand out in our industry-leading BettingPros NFL Prop Bet Analyzer.
- Catch my eye with their Week 10 projections.
I’ll update this piece by Saturday night with notes based on the week’s injury reports and news items. Before then, follow our NFL news desk for information on any breaking news. After the update, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my personal Week 10 rankings, not this article.
Note: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.
Abbreviations: Fantasy points per game (FPPG), against the spread (ATS), over/under (O/U), adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), expected points added (EPA), success rate (SR), completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), AirYAC (air yards and yards after catch).
FantasyPros Accuracy Contest
Week 10 Teams on Bye
- Cincinnati Bengals
- New England Patriots
- New York Jets
- Baltimore Ravens
Freedman’s Favorite Week 10 Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. WAS: Eagles -11 | 44 O/U
- Hurts has steadily progressed as a passer throughout his career and now ranks No. 2 in AY/A (9.2) and No. 5 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.140, per RBs Don’t Matter).
- Hurts has an incredibly high Konami Code floor, given that he’s No. 1 at the position in carries inside the five-yard line (12, per our Red Zone Stats Report) and No. 2 in total carries (88, per our Fantasy Football Stats Report).
- The Commanders have a funnel defense that ranks No. 2 against the run (-22.9% DVOA) but No. 25 against the pass (13.6% DVOA, per Football Outsiders).
- Against the Commanders in Week 3, Hurts was the No. 2 fantasy quarterback with 22-of-35 for 340-3-0 passing and 9-20-0 rushing.
- HC Nick Sirianni is 6-0-1 ATS as a home favorite (per Action Network).
Check out my Week 10 early betting breakdown on Eagles vs. Commanders.
Justin Fields (CHI) vs. DET: Bears -2.5 | 48.5 O/U
- Last week, Fields lit up our Game Day app with a position-high 42.7 fantasy points on 17-of-28 for 123-3-0 passing and an NFL-record 15-178-1 rushing.
- After posting horrible passing marks in Weeks 1-3 (15 attempts per game, 3.5 AY/A), Fields has been functional since Week 4 (23.7 attempts, 7.7 AY/A).
- Fields has elite Konami Code capability, ranking No. 1 among all quarterbacks in overall carries (91) and No. 2 in carries inside the five-yard line (7).
- Fields has a five-star matchup against the Lions, who are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA per play (0.234).
Over the past four weeks, Bears QB Justin Fields has a total of 110.52 fantasy points.
That's more than any other player in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/5txDQu5BFo
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 9, 2022
Marcus Mariota (ATL) at CAR: Falcons -3 | 44 O/U
- Mariota isn’t exciting, but he’s top-12 in AY/A (7.4), ESPN’s QBR (59.7) and EPA + CPOE (0.094) and No. 6 at the position in carries (60).
- Against the Panthers in Week 8, Mariota was the No. 6 fantasy quarterback with 20-of-28 for 253-3-2 passing and 6-43-0 rushing.
- The Panthers are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA (18.8%).
Andy Dalton (NE) at PIT: Saints -2.5 | 40.5 O/U
- After a mediocre Monday Night Football performance (210 yards, one touchdown passing), it’s not a given that Dalton will start in Week 10, but’s still top-12 in AY/A (7.2) and EPA + CPOE (0.098).
- The Steelers are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (21.2 FPPG, per our Fantasy Points Allowed Report).
Dalton Update (Sat. 11/12): WR Jarvis Landry (ankle) will play, but Dalton could be without the entire left side of his offensive line, as LT Trevor Penning (foot, IR) is unlikely to be activated for the game and LG Andrus Peat (tricep) and C Erik McCoy (calf) are out. Even so, I still like Dalton as a low-end QB2 option in superflex leagues because Steelers CBs Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) and William Jackson (back) are out.
Jacoby Brissett (CLE) at MIA: Browns +3.5 | 48.5 O/U
- Brissett has been serviceable this year (61.5 QBR, No. 7), and he had his best performance of the year (278-1-0 passing, 6-12-1 rushing, No. 10 fantasy quarterback) just before the Week 9 bye.
- The Dolphins are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (22.7 FPPG).
Jacoby Brissett earned a 95 NGS passing score in Week 8, the highest by any QB in a game this season.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 1, 2022
Brissett Update (Sat. 11/12): TE David Njoku (ankle) is out, but I wasn’t counting on him playing anyway. I have Brissett ranked as a solid QB2.
Sam Ehlinger (IND) at LV: Colts +6.5 | 42.5 O/U
- At least Ehlinger can run (11-54-0 in two starts), and he can’t be any worse than he was last week (2.0 AY/A) … right?
- The Raiders are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA (30.8%).
Ehlinger Update (Sat. 11/12): I was optimistically aggressive in thinking of Ehlinger as a contrarian favorite early in the week. He’s at risk of being benched during the game for Week 1 starting QB Matt Ryan (shoulder), who practiced fully this week. And Ehlinger will be without pass-catching RB Deon Jackson (knee) and TE Jelani Woods (shoulder). Ehlinger is on the Qb2/3 borderline and is no longer a favorite.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 10 Running Backs
Saquon Barkley (NYG) vs. HOU: Giants -6.5 | 40.5 O/U
- In eight games, Barkley has 968 yards and five touchdowns, thanks in large part to his position-best playing time (56.4 snaps per game, 84% snap rate, per our Snap Count Leaders Report).
- Coming off the Week 9 bye, Barkley should be rested and ready for a large workload.
- The Giants might have a run-heavy game script as large home favorites (-295 at DraftKings).
- The Texans are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (30.9 FPPG).
Barkley Update (Sat. 11/12): RT Evan Neal (knee) is out, but Barkley is still my No. 1 running back this week.
Christian McCaffrey (SF) vs. LAC: 49ers -7 | 45.5 O/U
- In Week 8, McCaffrey had a true triple-threat performance with 18-94-1 rushing, 8-55-1 receiving and a 34-yard touchdown passing in his first game as a full-time player with the 49ers.
- McCaffrey should have an even stronger command of the 49ers offense after the Week 9 bye.
- The 49ers could have another McCaffrey-heavy game plan as big home favorites (-310 on FanDuel).
- The Chargers are No. 29 in defensive rush DVOA (5.5%) and No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (29.7%).
Christian McCaffrey today:
✅ Passing Touchdown
✅ Receiving Touchdown
✅ Rushing Touchdown
First NFL player to accomplish that feat since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2005
— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) October 30, 2022
McCaffrey Update (Sat. 11/12): FB Kyle Juszczyk (finger) will return to action this week, so McCaffrey will have his lead blocker. He’s my No. 2 back.
Travis Etienne (JAX) at KC: Jaguars +9.5 | 50.5 O/U
- Ever since Week 7, when the Jaguars de facto sidelined No. 2 RB James Robinson (whom they traded in Week 8), Etienne has 407 yards and four touchdowns (with a two-point conversion) on 66 carries and 10 targets in three games.
- In that span, Etienne is the No. 4 fantasy back (22.6 FPPG, per our Fantasy Football Leaders Report).
- Etienne is No. 1 among all backs with 75-plus carries with 1.31 rushing yards over expected (per the RYOE app).
- The Jaguars are likely to trail — but they trailed the Raiders last week by as many as 17 points, and they still managed to give Etienne 30 opportunities.
Travis Etienne RB1 SZN
Over the last three weeks:
▫️ RB2 in Expected Fantasy Points (19.1)
▫️ RB5 in Opportunity Share (40%)
▫️ RB3 in Rushing Share (73.3%)
▫️ RB4 in Half-PPR points (22.6)
His usage value (xFP) has improved every single week since Week 6: pic.twitter.com/99Yyw4rfTb
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) November 8, 2022
Leonard Fournette (TB) vs. SEA (in Munich): Buccaneers -2.5 | 44.5 O/U
- Fournette is not good — he has just 3.8 yards per carry on 100 rush attempts in eight games since Week 2 — but over that span he has still amassed 47 targets and remains a three-down player.
- The Seahawks are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (28.0%).
Fournette Update (Sat. 11/12): LG Luke Goedeke (foot) is out, but he hasn’t been a strong player anyway. Fournette is a high-end RB2.
Jamaal Williams (DET) at CHI: Lions +2.5 | 48.5 O/U
- No. 1 RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle) is dealing with injuries and has seen limited action (seven carries, nine targets) since returning to action in Week 8.
- Last week, Williams had season-high marks in carries (24) and snap rate (61%), and he has had 13-plus opportunities in every game this year.
- Williams has four games with multiple touchdowns and is No. 2 in the league — behind only Joe Mixon — with 14 carries inside the five-yard line.
- The Bears are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (24.6 FPPG).
Williams Update (Sat. 11/12): The Bears will likely be without EDGE Al-Quadin Muhammad (knee, doubtful), so a good matchup now looks a little better for Williams, who is a high-end RB2.
Tony Pollard (DAL) at GB: Cowboys -5 | 43 O/U
- Even with so-called No. 1 RB Ezekiel Elliott (knee) likely to return this week, Pollard has the potential to go off given that he has had eight-plus opportunities in every game this year.
- On just 15 carries and one target, Pollard had 147 yards and three touchdowns in Week 8, and he should be fresh out of the Week 9 bye.
- Of all backs with 10-plus carries, Pollard is No. 1 with 3.6 yards after contact per attempt (per our Advanced RB Stats Report).
- The Packers are No. 31 in defensive rush DVOA (8.2%).
Just because I was curious:
Tony Pollard gets more difficult carries (on average) and has done a lot more with them pic.twitter.com/sqIfTdqMwz
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 3, 2022
Pollard Update (Sat. 11/12): As expected, Elliott practiced every day this week (albeit limitedly), so he should play through his questionable tag. For the Packers defense, EDGE Rashan Gary (knee, IR) and LB De’Vondre Campbell (knee) are out. Pollard is an upside RB2.
D’Onta Foreman (CAR) vs. ATL: Panthers +3 | 44 O/U
- RB Chuba Hubbard (ankle) practiced fully on Tuesday and should return to action on Thursday Night Football, but I expect him to play in a limited roll given that he has missed multiple games.
- In his eight games since last year with 12-plus opportunities, Foreman has averaged 108.3 yards (per FTN).
- Against the Falcons in just Week 8, he had 118 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries and a target.
- The Falcons defense is No. 30 in rush SR (46.3%).
ANGRY RUN TD from the one and only @ceeflashpee84
📺 FOX || NFL+ pic.twitter.com/uI2d6xOGaU
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) November 6, 2022
David Montgomery (CHI) vs. DET: Bears -2.5 | 48.5 O/U
- Even with QB Justin Fields and No. 2 RB Khalil Herbert getting carries, Montgomery still has 15-plus opportunities in every complete game this year.
- The Lions defense is No. 28 in rush EPA per play (0.033) and SR (45.4%).
Montgomery Update (Sat. 11/12): RG Teven Jenkins (hip) is questionable, but I expect him to play given that he practiced (limitedly) on Thursday and Friday. Montgomery is a solid RB2.
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) at CAR: Falcons -3 | 44 O/U
- In his return to action last week, Patterson led the Falcons backfield with 24 snaps and 13 carries — three of which were inside the five-yard line.
- Patterson has been a top-six fantasy back in three of his five games this year.
- The Panthers are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (25.7 FPPG).
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) at GB: Cowboys -5 | 43 O/U
- I expect Elliott (knee) to return to action after sitting out Week 8 and getting the bye in Week 9.
- Aside from a tough Week 1 matchup against the Buccaneers, Elliott has 14-plus opportunities in every game played this year.
- The Packers defense is No. 29 in rush SR (46.0%).
Elliott Update (Sat. 11/12): As expected, Elliott practiced every day this week (albeit limitedly), so he should play through his questionable tag. For the Packers defense, EDGE Rashan Gary (knee, IR) and LB De’Vondre Campbell (knee) are out. Elliott is an upside RB2.
Jeff Wilson (MIA) vs. CLE: Dolphins -3.5 | 48.5 O/U
- In his first game with the Dolphins, Wilson last week out-snapped (28 vs. 27 ), out-opportunitied (12 vs. 11) and out-produced (72 yards, one touchdown vs. 26 yards, one touchdown) once-and-future teammate Raheem Mostert.
- The Browns defense is No. 32 in rush EPA per play (0.120).
- The Dolphins are 10-4 ATS at home with QB Tua Tagovailoa.
Jeff Wilson has seen 10+ carries in 16 career games.
His totals: 271 att, 1235 yds, 12 TDs & 258 FPs
258 FPs would've ranked as the RB5 last year
— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) November 8, 2022
Wilson Update (Sat. 11/12): LT Terron Armstead (toe, calf) is likely to play through his questionable tag, as he has for most games this season. The Browns will be without LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (knee). Wilson is a high-end RB3, and I have him ranked one spot above teammate Mostert.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 10 Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill (MIA) vs. CLE: Dolphins -3.5 | 48.5 O/U
- Hill is No. 1 in the league with 1,104 yards receiving, 76 receptions overall, 45 receptions of 10-plus yards and 19 receptions of 20-plus yards (per our Advanced WR Stats Report).
- He’s also No. 1 with a 23% target rate per snap (Snap Count Analysis Report).
- Hill is rightfully the non-quarterback frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year (+350 at BetMGM).
Tyreek Hill leads the NFL with 1,104 receiving yards in 2022 (in 9 games)
– Most by any player in his team’s first 9 games of a season in the Super Bowl era
– Hill is on pace for 2,085 receiving yards (would break NFL single-season record of 1,964 by HOF Calvin Johnson in 2012)
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) November 8, 2022
Cooper Kupp (LAR) vs. ARI: Rams -3 | 43.5 O/U
- Last year Kupp had a position-high 56% boom rate with his Triple Crown 145-1,947-16 receiving performance (per our Boom/Bust Report), and he has continued to dominate in 2022, ranking No. 1 in the league with 11.6 targets per game (per our Weekly Target Report).
- Kupp has either 80 yards or a touchdown in every game.
- The Cardinals defense is No. 32 in dropback SR (53.7%).
Kupp Update (Sat. 11/12): QB Matthew Stafford (concussion) surprisingly popped up on the injury report on Wednesday with a head injury, but he did practice on Friday, so he could be a true game-time questionable. Depending on any information we get tomorrow before the 1 pm ET games, I might move Kupp to a mid-range WR1.
Stefon Diggs (BUF) vs. MIN: Bills -5.5 | 45.5 O/U
- “How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! What is a man, if his chief good and market of his time be but to sleep and feed? A beast, no more. … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!”
- Diggs is the only NFL player with 160-plus targets in each of the past two years, and he has 83 targets in eight games this year.
- Diggs is No. 1 at the position with five top-eight fantasy finishes
- Even if QB Josh Allen (elbow) is unable to play, I’ll still like Diggs — and backup QB Case Keenum — in their mutual #RevengeGame against the Vikings, who are No. 30 in defensive DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (25.4%).
Diggs Update (Sat. 11/12): Allen seems unlikely to play despite practicing limitedly on Friday, so I’ve slightly downgraded Diggs, but he’s still a solid WR1.
Davante Adams (LV) vs. IND: Raiders -6.5 | 42.5 O/U
- Adams frustrated in Weeks 2-3 with just 48 yards on seven receptions, but he has either 95 yards or a touchdown in every game but one and has an elite 10.6 targets per game.
- TE Darren Waller (hamstring) hasn’t played since exiting Week 5 early, and he could be limited if he suits up this week.
- The Colts are No. 27 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (20.9%).
30-30 club – Week 9
(L – Target share)
(R – Air yardage share)
47% – Davante Adams – 55%
38% – Amon-Ra St. Brown – 84%
38% – Garrett Wilson – 49%
36% – Dallas Goedert – 46%
35% – Terry McLaurin – 40%
33% – Justin Jefferson – 46%
32% – Chris Olave – 44%
31% – Christian Kirk – 33%
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 8, 2022
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) at LAR: Cardinals +3 | 43.5 O/U
- Since returning from his PED suspension, Hopkins has 26-298-2 receiving on 32 targets in three games: “That’s what I call high-quality H2O.”
- The Rams have a funnel defense that ranks No. 1 against the run (-0.186 EPA) but No. 20 against the pass (0.082).
- HC Kliff Kingsbury is 15-4-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Check out my Week 10 early betting breakdown on Cardinals at Rams.
Hopkins Update (Sat. 11/12): QB Kyler Murray (hamstring) is questionable, but I expect him to play after practicing limitedly on Thursday and Friday. Hopkins is a solid WR1.
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) vs. CLE: Dolphins -3.5 | 48.5 O/U
- Even as a clear No. 2 option to WR Tyreek Hill, the second-year Waddle has balled out with 829 yards and six touchdowns on 70 targets and three carries in nine games.
- The Browns are No. 26 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (21.7%).
Jaylen Waddle, the WR2 for the Miami Dolphins, has more receiving yards than the WR1 of 29 other NFL teams.
This offense is broken. pic.twitter.com/JisSaRCzTD
— Valley Boys Sports (@VBSofficial_) November 3, 2022
Mike Evans (TB) vs. SEA (in Munich): Buccaneers -2.5 | 44.5 O/U
- Since returning from his Week 3 suspension, Evans has 36-485-2 receiving on 59 targets in six games — even with all the struggles the Buccaneers have had on offense while going 2-4.
- The Seahawks are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (24.4%).
Evans Update (Sat. 11/12): WR Russell Gage (hamstring) is out, so Evans could see extra target volume. He’s a low-end WR1.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) at CHI: Lions +2.5 | 48.5 O/U
- St. Brown (concussion) left Week 7 early with a head injury, was on bye in Week 6, played sparingly with an ankle injury in Week 5 (32% snap rate), missed Week 4 and left Week 3 early — but in his five games with a snap rate of at least 50% St. Brown has 34-377-3 receiving on 52 targets and 2-68-0 rushing.
- He could see extra targets without Nos. 2-3 WRs D.J. Chark (ankle, IR) and Josh Reynolds (back, out last week) and TE T.J. Hockenson (traded).
- The Bears defense is No. 30 in dropback EPA per play (0.163) and pass DVOA (19.6%).
- St. Brown is one of our top Week 10 DFS value plays for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Amon-Ra St. Brown 5 career games without T.J. Hockensen:
☀️ 8 catches (10 targets) for 109 yards, 1 TD
☀️ 8 catches (11 targets) for 111 yards, 1 TD
☀️ 9 catches (11 targets) for 91 yards, 1 TD
☀️ 8 catches (11 targets) for 90 yards, 1 TD
☀️ 8 catches (12 targets) for 73 yards pic.twitter.com/aZAi9NoqaZ
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) November 4, 2022
St. Brown Update (Sat. 11/12): Reynolds (back) is out. St. Brown is a solid WR1.
Chris Olave (NO) at PIT: Saints -2.5 | 40.5 O/U
- Despite exiting Week 5 early and missing Week 6 with a concussion, Olave had 26-350-2 receiving on 43 targets in five games without No. 1 WR Michael Thomas (foot, IR) in Weeks 4-9.
- Olave ranks No. 1 in the league with 137.1 air yards per game (per RotoViz).
- The Steelers are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (38.8 FPPG).
Olave Update (Sat. 11/12): WR Jarvis Landry (ankle) will play, but the Steelers will be without CBs Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) and William Jackson (back). Olave is a high-end WR2.
Amari Cooper (CLE) at MIA: Browns +3.5 | 48.5 O/U
- Cooper had 5-131-1 receiving on seven targets without TE David Njoku (ankle) in Week 8, and Njoku is uncertain to play coming out of the bye.
- A boom/bust receiver, Copper has been a fantasy WR1 in half his games this year.
- The Dolphins defense is No. 29 in dropback EPA per play (0.152).
The last time Amari Cooper and Xavien Howard faced offpic.twitter.com/9Kl6eLKQEf
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 9, 2022
Cooper Update (Sat. 11/12): Njoku is out. Cooper is a low-end WR1.
Christian Kirk (JAX) at KC: Jaguars +9.5 | 50.5 O/U
- Kirk was horrible in Week 5 with just 11 scoreless yards — but in the first four weeks of the season he had 20-327-3 receiving on 36 targets … and in the most recent four weeks he had 22-236-2 on 31 targets: Those numbers are livable.
- The Chiefs are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (32.1%) and could be without starting CB Jaylen Watson (concussion).
D.J. Moore (CAR) vs. ATL: Panthers +3 | 44 O/U
- In the past three weeks, without No. 1 RB Christian McCaffrey and No. 2 WR Robbie Anderson — both of whom were traded in Week 7 — Moore has 15-245-2 receiving on 27 targets.
- Moore is No. 2 at the position — trailing only Cooper Kupp — with his 97% snap rate.
- Against the Falcons in Week 8, Moore had 6-152-1 receiving on 11 targets.
- The Falcons are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (37.4 FPPG).
DeVonta Smith (PHI) vs. WAS: Eagles -11 | 44 O/U
- Smith went off against the Commanders in Week 3 with a position-best 8-169-1 receiving on 12 targets.
- The Commanders are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (35.4%).
3 brilliant catches from DeVonta Smith today against the Commanders pic.twitter.com/yMRTSR09qc
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 26, 2022
Michael Pittman (IND) at LV: Colts +6.5 | 42.5 O/U
- Pittman had season-low marks last week in targets (6), receptions (3) and yards (22) — but before that he had 528 yards on 70 targets in seven games.
- The Raiders defense is No. 30 in dropback SR (52.2%), No. 31 in dropback EPA per play (0.233) and No. 32 in pass DVOA (30.8%).
Pittman Update (Sat. 11/12): Pass-catching RB Deon Jackson (knee) and TE Jelani Woods (shoulder) are out, so Pittman could see extra targets. Pittman is a remember-the-good-times-we-had WR3.
Diontae Johnson (PIT) vs. NO: Steelers +2.5 | 40.5 O/U
- The production has underwhelmed (394 yards, zero touchdowns from scrimmage), but Johnson has 76 targets this year (plus five carries) and exactly 10.0 targets per game since 2020.
- Johnson could see more targets without No. 3 WR Chase Claypool (traded), and the Saints could be without No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore (abdomen), who has been out since Week 6.
- The Steelers are 15-3-3 ATS as home underdogs under HC Mike Tomlin.
- At some point, targets and receptions turn into yards and touchdowns.
Most targets this season without a touchdown:
Diontae Johnson (76)
Chris Godwin (65)
Tyler Higbee (57)
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 8, 2022
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) at TEN: Broncos +3 | 39 O/U
- I hate the Broncos offense — but at least Jeudy has 19-266-1 receiving on 33 targets over his past four games, and maybe the offense will be sharper out of the Week 9 bye.
- The Titans are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (33.4 FPPG).
Jeudy Update (Sat. 11/12): WR K.J. Hamler (hamstring) is out, so Jeudy could have more target volume. For the Titans, S Amani Hooker (shoulder) is out and CB Kristian Fulton (hamstring) is questionable. Jeudy is a low-end WR2.
Darnell Mooney (CHI) vs. DET: Bears -2.5 | 48.5 O/U
- Since Week 4, when the Bears starting passing more, Mooney has 28-380-1 receiving on 41 targets in six games.
- In two games against the Lions last year, Mooney had 10-248-0 receiving on 15 targets.
- The Lions defense is No. 32 in dropback EPA per play (0.234).
Rondale Moore (ARI) at LAR: Cardinals +3 | 43.5 O/U
- In his four games this year playing primarily in the slot, Moore has 28-278-1 receiving on 36 targets.
- I’m skeptical that slot CB Troy Hill has the athleticism (4.55-second 40-yard dash) to keep up with Moore (4.29-second 40).
At least Kliff has figured out 5'7/180 Rondale Moore can't play outside.
Last two games, Rondale 86 slot slaps vs. 46 wide. Resulted in 15-161-1.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 7, 2022
Moore Update (Sat. 11/12): QB Kyler Murray (hamstring) is questionable, but I expect him to play after practicing limitedly on Thursday and Friday. Moore is a volume-fueled WR3.
Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG) vs. HOU: Giants -6.5 | 40.5 O/U
- No. 1 WR Kadarius Toney (traded) is gone, No. 2 WR Kenny Golladay (knee) last played in Week 4, No. 3 WR Sterling Shepard (knee, IR) is out and No. 1 TE Daniel Bellinger (eye) is dealing with a serious injury: In their absence, Robinson has a shot to be the de facto No. 1 wide receiver.
- Robinson has had a nice career-high 69% snap rate in each of his past two games, and he might be in line for a post-bye bump.
- The Texans are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (25.6%).
I’m betting over 8.5 points for Robinson in the Week 10 No House Advantage Over/Under Challenge.
Robinson Update (Sat. 11/12): Urgh. WRs Kenny Golladay (knee) and Richie James (concussion) are likely to play this week, so Robinson has a lower floor. But I still think he’s the best wide receiver on the team and have him ranked on the WR3/4 borderline.
Terrace Marshall (CAR) vs. ATL: Panthers +3 | 44 O/U
- Since the Panthers traded WR Robbie Anderson in Week 7, Marshall has stepped up as the team’s new No. 2 pass catcher with a non-horrible 9-171-1 receiving on 18 targets.
- For the Falcons, No. 1 CB A.J. Terrell (hamstring) is uncertain after missing Weeks 8-9, and No. 2 CB Casey Hayward (shoulder, IR) is out.
- The Falcons defense is No. 31 in dropback SR (52.3%).
Terrace Marshall Jr. had 3 end zone targets last week, just caught a touchdown. He's their best red zone weapon in the passing game
I'd add him if he's still out there in your leagues
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 6, 2022
Chase Claypool (CHI) vs. DET: Bears -2.5 | 48.5 O/U
- In his first game with the Bears last week, Claypool played just 26 snaps, but he should see more this week — and he still had six targets and a carry.
- The Lions are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (31.9 FPPG).
Freedman’s Favorite Week 10 Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (KC) vs. JAX: Chiefs -9.5 | 50.5 O/U
- Kelce has either 90 yards or a touchdown in every game but one.
- The Chiefs have a week-high 30-point implied total in our Week 10 DFS cheat sheet.
- The Jaguars are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (31.5%): May the football gods have mercy upon them.
Kelce Update (Sat. 11/12): SS Rayshawn Jenkins (concussion) is questionable and could be cleared in time to play this week for the Jags, but Kelce is still the TE1 overall.
Kyle Pitts (ATL) at CAR: Falcons -3 | 44 O/U
- “Someday, somehow, I’m gonna make it alright, but not right now. I know you’re wondering when.”
- Say whatever you want, but there aren’t that many tight ends with 16 targets over their past two games.
- The Panthers are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (22.9%).
Kyle Pitts in Week 9 (PFF)
Receiving yards: 27
Air yards: 202
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 7, 2022
Cade Otton (TB) vs. SEA (in Munich): Buccaneers -2.5 | 44.5 O/U
- No. 1 TE Cameron Brate (neck) is uncertain to play, and in Otton’s four games without him he has 17-190-1 receiving on 23 targets.
- The Seahawks are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (17.6 FPPG).
Otton Update (Sat. 11/12): Brate is technically questionable, but he practiced fully every day this week, so I expect him to play. As a result, Otton is now a mid-range TE2. He still has a ceiling, but he now has a much lower floor.
Cole Kmet (CHI) vs. DET: Bears -2.5 | 48.5 O/U
- Relative to Weeks 1-3, Kmet has seen roughly double the per-game usage (3.5 targets vs. 1.7) and production (26.7 yards, 0.5 touchdowns vs. 13.3 yards, zero touchdowns) in Weeks 4-9 as the Bears offense has improved.
- The Lions are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (12.8 FPPG).
Cole Kmet TDs
Weeks 1-7: 0
Weeks 8-9: 3 👀
— Mojo Markets (@mojo) November 7, 2022
Noah Fant (SEA) vs. TB (in Munich): Seahawks +2.5 | 44.5 O/U
- In Weeks 1-4, Fant was in a pure committee with teammates Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson, but since Week 5 he has distinguished himself with 9.4 yards per target on a 15.9% Target share (per our Advanced TE Stats Report).
- The Buccaneers are without S Logan Ryan (foot, IR) and might be without S Antoine Winfield (concussion).
Fant Update (Sat. 11/12): Winfield has been cleared and will play in Munich. Fant is an upside TE2.
Freedman’s Former Favorites
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