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UPDATE NOTE (Sat. 11/5, 1 pm ET): This piece has been updated.
Thanks to everyone who reads this piece.
There are enough of you out there — pure fantasy degenerates to the core — that we were able to get this piece sponsored for the rest of the season, so that’s cool.
Regarding this piece, I’ve gotten four main items of feedback this year. Generally, here’s what people seem to want.
- More players
- Fewer players
- More analysis per player
- Less analysis per player
Given that my goal is to alienate all my readers, I think I’ve struck the right balance at the midway point of the NFL season.
Some people have asked me how I choose the players I want to write about in any given week.
For the most part, the guys who become “Freedman’s favorites” are those who check the box in two ways: 1) Opportunity and 2) matchup.
Sometimes, simplicity is sophistication.
FantasyPros Accuracy Contest
Freedman’s Favorites for Week 9
Here are my Week 9 favorites. These are the players who (in some combination) …
- Will probably be high in my rankings relative to the expert consensus rankings (ECR).
- Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
- Possess underappreciated upside.
- Have advantageous matchups.
- Appear in my DFS player pool.
- Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
- Are on teams with player-friendly Week 9 betting odds.
- Stand out in our industry-leading BettingPros NFL Prop Bet Analyzer.
- Catch my eye with their Week 9 projections.
I’ll update this piece by Saturday night with notes based on the week’s injury reports and news items. Before then, follow our NFL news desk for information on any breaking news. After the update, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my personal Week 9 rankings, not this article.
Note: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.
Abbreviations: Fantasy points per game (FPPG), against the spread (ATS), over/under (O/U), adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), expected points added (EPA), success rate (SR), completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), AirYAC (air yards and yards after catch).
Week 9 Teams on Bye
- Cleveland Browns
- Dallas Cowboys
- Denver Broncos
- New York Giants
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- San Francisco 49ers
Freedman’s Favorite Week 9 Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert (LAC) at ATL: Chargers -3 | 49.5 O/U
- Out of all qualified starters (i.e., guys who aren’t Joe Flacco and Brett Rypien), Herbert is No. 1 in pass attempts (44.0) and completions (29.0) per game.
- Off the Week 8 bye, the Chargers have a chance to get back WRs Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Joshua Palmer (concussion) and TE Donald Parham (concussion).
- The Falcons defense is No. 30 in dropback SR (52.4%, per RBs Don’t Matter) and pass DVOA (23.8%, per Football Outsiders).
Herbert Update (Sat. 11/5): Allen (hamstring) and Parham (hamstring) are out, as is WR Mike Williams (ankle), but Palmer (concussion) will play. For the Falcons, starting perimeter CBs A.J. Terrell (hamstring) and Casey Hayward (shoulder, IR) are out. Herbert is a mid-tier QB1.
Geno Smith (SEA) at ARI: Seahawks +1.5 | 50 O/U
- Smith is No. 1 in completion percentage (72.7%), No. 4 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.152) and No. 5 in AY/A (8.2) — just as we all expected before the season started.
- The Cardinals defense is No. 32 in dropback SR (54.1%).
- Road underdogs are 11-5 ATS against the Cardinals under HC Kliff Kingsbury (per Action Network).
Still not writing back.
— NFL (@NFL) October 30, 2022
Check out my Week 9 early betting breakdown on Seahawks at Cardinals.
Smith Update (Sat. 11/5): WR Marquise Brown (groin) is out. Still, Smith is a low-end QB1.
Justin Fields (CHI) vs. MIA: Bears +5 | 44 O/U
- After posting horrible passing marks in Weeks 1-3 (15 attempts per game, 3.5 AY/A), Fields has been functional since Week 4 (22.8 attempts, 8.0 AY/A).
- Fields has elite Konami Code capability, ranking No. 2 among all quarterbacks with 76 carries overall and seven carries inside the five-yard line (per our Fantasy Football Stats Report and Red Zone Stats Report).
- The Dolphins defense is No. 30 in dropback EPA per play (0.147).
Justin Fields can absolutely fly. pic.twitter.com/2aWsCaE6cR
— Chris Emma (@CEmma670) October 31, 2022
Fields Update (Sat. 11/5): RT Larry Borom (concussion) practiced fully on Friday, and LG Cody Whitehair (knee) has been activated from IR, so Fields should have his full offensive line. Fields is an upside QB1.
Aaron Rodgers (GB) at DET: Packers -3 | 49 O/U
- Rodgers is not the producer he was in his back-to-back MVP campaigns (9.2 AY/A in 2020-21 vs. 6.9 this year) — but he’s still tied with Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith for No. 1 in the league with multiple touchdown passes in six games.
- No. 1 WR Allen Lazard (shoulder) might return to action this week.
- The Lions defense is No. 32 in dropback EPA per play (0.296) and pass DVOA (26.8%).
- Rodgers is 41-23-1 ATS off a loss.
Rodgers Update (Sat. 11/5): Lazard (questionable) seems likely to play after practicing every day this week (albeit limitedly), and LT David Bakhtiari (knee), LG Elgton Jenkins (knee, foot) and WR Christian Watson (concussion) all could play through their questionable tags. Rodgers is on the QB1/2 borderline.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) vs. LV: Jaguars +1.5 | 47.5 O/U
- Lawrence has disappointed this season as a passer (6.4 AY/A, No. 21), but he’s No. 1 on the team and No. 2 at the position with three rushing touchdowns inside the five-yard line.
- Lawrence has a five-star matchup against the Raiders, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (23.4 FPPG, per our Fantasy Points Allowed Report).
Freedman’s Favorite Week 9 Running Backs
Derrick Henry (TEN) at Chiefs: Titans +12.5 | 46.5 O/U
- After having just 107 yards and a touchdown on “only” 34 carries and a target in Weeks 1-2, Henry exploded in Weeks 3-8 with 788 yards and six touchdowns on 132 carries and an intriguing 17 targets in five games.
- For the season, Henry is No. 1 in the league with 422 yards after contact (per our Advanced RB Stats Report).
- In his three games against the Chiefs under DC Steve Spagnuolo, Henry has 354 yards and three touchdowns on 71 carries and six targets (with a five-yard touchdown pass) despite the Titans having a -32 point differential.
- HC Mike Vrabel is 20-12 ATS as an underdog in the regular season.
Henry Update (Sat. 11/5): QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle) is a questionable game-time decision. The Titans will likely lean heavily on the running game. Henry is a top-two fantasy back.
Austin Ekeler (LAC) at ATL: Chargers -3 | 49.5 O/U
- Ekeler underwhelmed in Weeks 1-3, but since Week 4 he has been an elite producer (league-high 25.0 FPPG, per our Fantasy Football Leaders Report), and for the year he has 737 yards and eight touchdowns from scrimmage.
- Ekeler is No. 4 with 52 receptions (including wide receivers and tight ends) and No. 1 at the position with 61 targets (per our Weekly Target Report).
- He should be fresh off the Week 8 bye.
- The Falcons defense is No. 32 in rush SR (48.5%).
Austin Ekeler is pacing for 148 targets, 129 receptions.
Christian McCaffrey holds the single-season records with 142 & 116 (2019, 16 games).
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 1, 2022
Ekeler Update (Sat. 11/5): WRs Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Mike Williams (ankle) and TE Donald Parham (hamstring) are out. Ekeler could once again be the top receiver for QB Justin Herbert. He’s now my No. 1 running back overall.
Travis Etienne (JAX) vs. LV: Jaguars +1.5 | 47.5 O/U
- Last week without RB James Robinson (traded), Etienne hit career-high marks with 57 snaps, 27 opportunities and 162 yards — and he scored a touchdown for his second game in a row.
- Etienne is No. 1 among all backs with 75-plus carries with 1.31 rushing yards over expected (per the RYOE app).
- Etienne has a locked-in three-down role with three-plus targets in six games.
- The Raiders are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (29.9%).
Travis Etienne Weeks 1-8: 🚀🚀🚀
Weeks 1-4: 6.6 fantasy points per game
Weeks 5-8: 16.7
Weeks 7-8: 21.2
Week 8: 23.7
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 1, 2022
Aaron Jones (GB) at DET: Packers -3 | 49 O/U
- Among all lead backs, Jones is No. 1 in the league with a 53.8% Rush Percentage Over Expected (per Next Gen Stats).
- Despite splitting work with No. 2 RB A.J. Dillon, Jones has 765 yards and four touchdowns on 98 carries and 38 targets this year.
- For the Packers, LG Elgton Jenkins (knee, foot) might return to action this week, which would help the running game.
- The Lions are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA allowed to running backs (27.6%) and No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (7.2%).
Jones Update (Sat. 11/5): LT David Bakhtiari (knee) and Jenkins (knee, foot) both seem likely to play through their questionable tags. Jones is a high-end RB1.
Jonathan Taylor (IND) at NE: Colts +5.5 | 39.5 O/U
- As the No. 1 pick in most drafts, Taylor has massively disappointed (533 yards, one touchdown) — but he has also averaged 17.8 carries and 4.2 targets per game.
- Without QB Matt Ryan (benched), No. 2 RB Nyheim Hines (traded) and OC Marcus Brady (fired), the Colts could heavily lean on Taylor this week.
- The Patriots defense is No. 31 in rush SR (46.8%).
Taylor Update (Sat. 11/5): Taylor (ankle) is out. A disappointing season for Taylor gets even worse. Backup RB Deon Jackson will start in his place. I have Jackson on the RB2/3 borderline, but he undoubtedly has RB1 upside.
Miles Sanders (PHI) at HOU: Eagles -13 | 44 O/U
- Sanders has gotten 15 opportunities in every game but one and has 605 yards and five touchdowns in seven games.
- Among all backs with 75-plus carries, Sanders is No. 1 with 0.18 EPA per rush.
- The Eagles could have an extremely run-heavy game script as big road favorites (-900 at DraftKings).
- The Texans are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing backfields (31.5 FPPG) and No. 32 in defensive rush DVOA (19.0%).
Week 8 RB red zone snap rates
100% – Miles Sanders, Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, Travis Etienne YLTSI
90% – Raheem Mostert, Kenneth Walker
86% – Derrick Henry, D'Onta Foreman
83% – Leonard Fournette
80% – CMC, Alvin Kamara
75% – David Montgomery
71% – Antonio Gibson
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 1, 2022
Dameon Pierce (HOU) vs. PHI: Texans +13 | 44 O/U
- Yes, the Texans are likely to get trounced on Thursday Night Football, but the Texans are have a pitiful 1-5 record since Week 2, when Pierce became the team’s lead back — and he still has 598 yards and four touchdowns over his past six games.
- The Eagles will almost certainly be without run-stuffing DT Jordan Davis (ankle), and their defense is No. 29 in rush SR (46.6%) and No. 31 in rush EPA per play (0.065).
Raheem Mostert (MIA) at CHI: Dolphins -5 | 44 O/U
- Mostert underwhelmed in Week 1 with 32 scoreless yards on five carries and a target, but in every game since then he has had 10-plus opportunities, and since Week 4 — when his snap rate jumped up (67% since then, per our Snap Count Analysis Report) — he has amassed 428 yards and two touchdowns in five games.
- Mostert could control more of the backfield this week, given that former No. 2 RB Chase Edmonds (traded) is gone and new No. 2 RB Jeff Wilson (acquired via 49ers) could be limited without a full week of preparation.
- The Bears are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing backfields (24.7 FPPG).
Mostert Update (Sat. 11/5): LT Terron Armstead (toe, Achilles) is likely to play despite his questionable status. Mostert is a solid RB2.
Jamaal Williams (DET) vs. GB: Lions +3 | 49 O/U
- Even with the Week 8 return of No. 1 RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle), Williams still had 10 carries and three targets — and he has had 13-plus opportunities in every game this year.
- Williams has four games with multiple touchdowns and is No. 1 in the league with 12 carries and five touchdowns inside the five-yard line.
- The Packers could be without LB De’Vondre Campbell (knee) and are No. 31 in defensive rush DVOA (12.3%).
Jamaal Williams TD #8 pic.twitter.com/d6PFbZVTd1
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 30, 2022
Williams Update (Sat. 11/5): Swift (shoulder, ankle) will likely play through his questionable tag, but he’s unlikely to see his usual workload. Campbell (knee) is out for the Packers. Williams is a solid RB2.
Tyler Allgeier (ATL) vs. LAC: Falcons +3 | 49.5 O/U
- Since Week 4 — when starter Cordarrelle Patterson (knee, IR) was limited and ultimately sidelined — Allgeier has 335 yards and and two touchdowns on 68 carries and four targets in five games.
- The Chargers are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing backfields (28.3 FPPG).
- If Patterson is activated in time for this week, then I’ll aggressively move Allgeier down my rankings.
Allgeier Update (Sat. 11/5): As of writing, it doesn’t seem like Patterson (knee, IR) will return to action this week. Allgeier is a low-end RB2.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 9 Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson (MIN) at WAS: Vikings -3.5 | 43.5 O/U
- Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 3 of his 2020 rookie campaign, Jefferson has averaged 97.3 yards on 9.4 targets per game with an elite mark of 10.4 yards per target.
- Jefferson is No. 2 — behind only Tyreek Hill — with 13 receptions of 20-plus yards (per our Advanced WR Stats Report).
- The Commanders are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA (14.8%).
Jefferson Update (Sat. 11/5): The Commanders traded away CB William Jackson. Jefferson is a top-three fantasy wide receiver.
DeAndre Hopkins (SEA) at ARI: Cardinals -1.5 | 50 O/U
- The sample is small, but Hopkins has a skeptic-silencing 22-262-1 receiving on 27 targets in his two games back, both of which have been played in the absence of No. 2 WR Marquise Brown (foot, IR).
- Rookie CBs Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant have played better following a rough introduction to the NFL in Weeks 1-2 … but they’re still rookies.
A.J. Brown (PHI) at HOU: Eagles -13 | 44 O/U
- Last week, Brown lit up our Game Day app with a position-high 36.6 fantasy points on an overpowering 6-156-3 receiving with 11 targets.
- The Texans are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (24.7%).
- I can’t wait to see his touchdown celebrations this week.
AJ Brown — in two halves of football — pulled off two orchestrated dances from movies, the "you're too small" hand signal and the infamous finger point at multiple defenders guarding you in three TD celebrations.
no notes pic.twitter.com/zUuGrM7R0B
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) October 31, 2022
Mike Evans (TB) vs. LAR: Buccaneers -3 | 42.5 O/U
- Since returning from his Week 3 suspension, Evans has 31-445-2 receiving on 48 targets in five games — even with all the struggles the Buccaneers have had on offense while going 1-4.
- In two games against the Rams last year, Evans had 16-225-1 receiving on 26 targets (including postseason).
- Despite having No. 1 CB Jalen Ramsey, the Rams are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (27.3%).
Chris Olave (NO) vs. BAL: Saints +2.5 | 48 O/U
- Despite exiting Week 5 early and missing Week 6 with a concussion, Olave had 20-279-2 receiving on 34 targets in four games without No. 1 WR Michael Thomas in Weeks 4-8.
- Thomas (foot), WR Jarvis Landry (ankle) and TE Adam Trautman (ankle) all missed Weeks 7-8 and are uncertain for Week 9.
- The Ravens are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (32.5 FPPG).
- With his 9.0 targets per game and high 15.2-yard average depth of target, Olave has an elite ceiling, ranking No. 1 with 141.6 AirYAC.
Chris Olave has more receiving yards (547) this season than:
Michael Pittman Jr pic.twitter.com/QTpPXPFhlt
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) November 2, 2022
Check out my Week 9 early betting breakdown on Saints vs. Ravens.
Olave Update (Sat. 11/5): Thomas (IR) is out. Landry and Trautman both are likely to play after practicing limitedly this week. Olave is a high-end WR2.
D.K. Metcalf (SEA) at ARI: Seahawks +1.5 | 50 O/U
- Despite exiting Week 7 early with what seemed to be a serious knee injury, Metcalf somehow suited up for Week 8, had a 62% snap rate and earned 10 targets, which he leveraged into 6-55-1 receiving.
- The Seahawks pass catchers have a massive edge over the Cardinals secondary in our FantasyPros unit power rankings.
|Rank||WRs & TEs||Opp Secondary||Secondary Rank||Edge|
Metcalf Update (Sat. 11/5): WR Marquise Brown (groin) is out. Metcalf is an upside WR2.
Chris Godwin (TB) vs. LAR: Buccaneers -3 | 42.5 O/U
- Since returning in Week 4 from his hamstring injury, Godwin leads the Buccaneers with 54 targets and 34 receptions, which he has leveraged into 329 yards in five games.
- The Rams are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (37.1%).
D.J. Moore (CAR) at CIN: Panthers +7.5 | 42.5 O/U
- After getting six targets in each of Weeks 1-3, Moore has 47 targets (and three carries) over his past five games.
- In the past two weeks, without No. 1 RB Christian McCaffrey and No. 2 WR Robbie Anderson — both of whom were traded in Week 7 — Moore has 13-221-2 receiving on 21 targets.
- Moore is No. 2 at the position — trailing only Cooper Kupp — with his 97% snap rate (per our Snap Count Leader Report).
- The Bengals are without No. 1 CB Chidobe Awuzie (knee), who suffered a season-ending injury on Monday Night Football.
PJ WALKER TO DJ MOORE, HOLY COW!pic.twitter.com/hNazMcWFwe
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 30, 2022
Moore Update (Sat. 11/5): In addition to being without Awuzie, the Bengals are also without CB Mike Hilton (finger) and also maybe CB Tre Flower (hamstring), who is technically questionable but seems unlikely to play after missing every practice this week. Moore is a high-end WR2.
Terry McLaurin (WAS) vs. MIN: Commanders +3.5 | 43.5 O/U
- McLaurin had his two best games of the year over the past couple weeks (11-186-1 receiving on 16 targets) — and it’s probably not a coincidence that they’ve come in backup QB Taylor Heinicke’s two starts.
- In Heinicke’s 14 full starts last year, McLaurin had 71-940-5 receiving on 119 targets.
- Given that 32-year-old CB Patrick Peterson is the top pass defender for the Vikings, it’s not a surprise that they’re No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (38.6%).
Terry McLaurin OVER Stephon Gilmore 🤯
— PFF (@PFF) October 30, 2022
Juju Smith-Schuster (KC) vs. TEN: Chiefs -12.5 | 46.5 O/U
- Smith-Schuster is No. 1 on the Chiefs with 681 AirYAC and No. 2 — behind only TE Travis Kelce — with 48 targets, 34 receptions and 494 yards receiving.
- The Titans are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (32.6 FPPG).
Christian Kirk (JAX) vs. LV: Jaguars +1.5 | 47.5 O/U
- Long gone are the halcyon days of Weeks 1-3, when Kirk had 18-267-3 receiving on 27 targets — but since Week 4 he has still been the No. 1 pass catcher for the Jaguars with 35 targets and 335 AirYAC.
- The Raiders defense is very much #notgood, ranking No. 31 in dropback EPA per play (0.205) and pass DVOA (23.9%).
Christian Kirk ran the route before the ball was even snapped pic.twitter.com/MMwvMEVlCd
— Theo Ash (@TheoAshNFL) October 27, 2022
Jakobi Meyers (NE) vs. IND: Colts +5.5 | 39.5 O/U
- In their three full games together this year, QB Mac Jones has endowed Meyers with an elite 31 targets, which he has transformed into 22-210-1 receiving.
- Meyers has a great matchup in the slot against CB Kenny Moore, who has allowed a 72.2% catch rate with 1.06 yards per coverage snap this year.
Meyers Update (Sat. 11/5): WR DeVante Parker (knee) is out. Meyers is a low-end WR2.
Adam Thielen (MIN) at WAS: Vikings -3.5 | 43.5 O/U
- Thielen is aging (32 years old), slowing (career-low 7.0 yards per target) and boring (I mean, just look at him), but …
- The Commanders are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (43.0%).
Adam Thielen still hasn't dropped a pass all season. He leads the NFL in catches (35) among players without a drop. Nice throw by Kirk Cousins, too. pic.twitter.com/MS4o2ARkAq
— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) October 31, 2022
Allen Lazard (GB) at DET: Packers -3 | 49 O/U
- Lazard (shoulder) exited Week 7 early with an injury and missed Week 8, but he has a chance to return this week.
- In each of his five full games, Lazard has either 100-plus yards or a touchdown.
- The Lions defense is No. 31 in dropback SR (53.8%).
Lazard Update (Sat. 11/5): Lazard (questionable) seems likely to play after practicing every day this week (albeit limitedly), but he will likely still be a game-time decision. Lazard is a WR3.
Romeo Doubs (GB) at DET: Packers -3 | 49 O/U
- It’s gross, but Doubs has a 90% snap rate since becoming a full-time player in Week 3 and is No. 2 on the team with a 19.4% target share since then.
- The Lions are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (45.4%).
I’m betting over 9.0 points for Doubs in the Week 9 No House Advantage Over/Under Challenge.
Doubs Update (Sat. 11/5): WRs Allen Lazard (shoulder) and Christian Watson (concussion) are both questionable, but I tentatively project them to play. I’ve bumped Doubs down my rankings a little, but he’s still a WR3.
Joshua Palmer (LAC) at ATL: Chargers -3 | 49.5 O/U
- No. 1 WR Keenan Allen (hamstring) is uncertain to play, No. 2 WR Mike Williams (ankle) is likely out and Palmer (concussion) has returned to practice off the Week 8 bye.
- In his seven career games without either Allen or Williams, Palmer has averaged seven targets, which he has leveraged into a livable 9.8 FPPG
- The Falcons are without CB Casey Hayward (shoulder, IR) and rank No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (38.6 FPPG).
— NBC Sports EDGE Football (@NBCSEdgeFB) October 28, 2022
Palmer Update (Sat. 11/5): Palmer will play this weekend. Allen (hamstring) and Williams (ankle) are out, as is TE Donald Parham (hamstring). For the Falcons, CB A.J. Terrell (hamstring) is out, as well as Hayward (shoulder, IR). Palmer will likely be the No. 1 wide receiver for the Chargers this week is on the WR2/3 borderline.
Darnell Mooney (CHI) vs. MIA: Bears +5 | 44 O/U
- In the five games since Week 4 — when the Bears started passing more (league-low 34.8% pass rate in Weeks 1-3; 42.7% pass rate, Weeks 4-8) — Mooney is No. 1 on the team in targets (34), target share (28%), receptions (21), yards receiving (337) and AirYAC (475, per RotoViz).
- The Dolphins defense is No. 29 in dropback SR (51.2%) and pass DVOA (17.8%).
Zay Jones (JAX) vs. LV: Jaguars +1.5 | 47.5 O/U
- “How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! What is a man, if his chief good and market of his time be but to sleep and feed? A beast, no more. … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!”
- You’ll never hear me say anything nice about Jones, but …
- The Raiders are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against supplementary wide receivers (53.4%).
Freedman’s Favorite Week 9 Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (KC) vs. TEN: Chiefs -12.5 | 46.5 O/U
- Kelce has either 90 yards or a touchdown in every game but one.
- Last year against the Titans, he had 7-65-0 receiving on 12 targets.
- This third point is just to say that Kelce’s dominance as the No. 1 player at his position is unrivaled.
Despite not playing last week, no player has more touchdown catches this season than @tkelce 🏹
Now that's scary stuff. pic.twitter.com/SETv3ls3fk
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 31, 2022
Zach Ertz (SEA) at ARI: Cardinals -1.5 | 50 O/U
- Ertz has seen a significant drop in targets with No. 1 DeAndre Hopkins (8.5 per game in Weeks 1-6; 4.5, Weeks 7-8), but he’s still No. 2 at the position behind only Travis Kelce (15) with 14 red-zone targets (per our Advanced TE Stats Report).
- Against the Seahawks in Week 6, Ertz had 7-70-0 receiving on 10 targets, and in two games against the Seahawks last year he had 15-172-2 receiving on 19 targets.
- The Seahawks are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (18.3 FPPG).
Tyler Higbee (LAR) at TB: Rams +3 | 42.5 O/U
- Higbee is No. 2 at the position with 8.0 targets per game.
- I mean, what are the Rams going to do: Throw the ball to WR Allen Robinson?
- The Buccaneers are without S Logan Ryan (foot, IR) and might be without S Antoine Winfield (concussion).
Target per route run leaders at TE
29% – Mark Andrews
28% – Kyle Pitts
26% – Tyler Higbee
24% – Travis Kelce, Pat Freiermuth
23% – Robert Tonyan
22% – David Njoku, Dalton Schultz
21% – Foster Moreau, Gerald Everett, George Kittle, Isaiah Likely, TJ Hockenson
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 1, 2022
Higbee Update (Sat. 11/5): Winfield is out. Higbee is a mid-range TE1.
Hayden Hurst (CIN) vs. CAR: Bengals -7.5 | 42.5 O/U
- In his three games this year in which WR Tee Higgins has played less than 30% of the snaps or WR Ja’Marr Chase has been out, Hurst has 15-141-1 receiving on 19 targets.
- The Panthers are without S Jeremy Chinn (hamstring, IR) and rank No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (25.2%).
Hurst Update (Sat. 11/5): As expected, Chase (hip) is out. The Panthers are without S Juston Burris (concussion). Hurst is a low-end TE1.
Robert Tonyan (GB) at DET: Packers -3 | 49 O/U
- Since Week 6, when slot WR Randall Cobb (ankle, IR) exited early with an injury, Tonyan has had a snap rate of at least 50% and amassed 18-157-0 receiving on 22 targets.
- He was robbed of a touchdown last week.
- The Lions are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (34.4%).
This is NOT Offensive Pass Interference pic.twitter.com/cW4q6Tv9L8
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) October 31, 2022
Tonyan Update (Sat. 11/5): WRs Allen Lazard (shoulder) and Christian Watson (concussion) are both questionable, but I tentatively project them to play. I’ve bumped Tonyan down my rankings a little, but he’s still a TE1.
Evan Engram (JAX) vs. LV: Jaguars +1.5 | 47.5 O/U
- After the one-target disappointment of Week 4, Engram has rebounded with 19-231-1 receiving on 29 targets and an 83% snap rate in four games.
- The Raiders are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (13.6 FPPG).
Isaiah Likely (BAL) at NO: Ravens -2.5 | 48 O/U
- No. 1 TE Mark Andrews (shoulder) exited Week 8 early with an injury, and in his absence Likely went off with 6-77-1 receiving on seven targets.
- If Andrews is out or limited this week, Likely could have another big performance, as the Ravens are No. 1 in tight end volume (97 targets, 43.7% target share, per our Target Distribution Report).
- Also, we started the meme. Just sayin’.
"How many fantasy leagues are you joining this year?" pic.twitter.com/5dyT18WFWq
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) August 22, 2022
Likely Update (Sat. 11/5): Andrews seems unlikely to play after missing practice every day this week, and No. 1 WR Rashod Bateman (foot, IR) is out. Assuming Andrews is out, Likely will probably be on the TE1/2 borderline.
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