Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football.

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Cowboys vs. Titans: Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice (Week 17)

Pace and playcalling notes

• Across their last five games, Dallas has transitioned from a run-balanced squad to a run-heavy one. In this span, they are fourth in neutral pace and 11th in neutral rushing rate.
• Since Week 12, Tennessee has risen to 16th in neutral pace. Last week they only ran 20 plays in a neutral setting, but they, surprisingly enough, called passes on 60% of them. We’ll see if that holds entering Week 17.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: Prescott bounced back in a big way last week with 347 passing yards, three scores, 41 yards on the ground, 9.9 yards per attempt, and a QB1 overall finish. Prescott should keep the good vibes rolling this week against Tennessee. Since Week 11, they are 30th in success rate per dropback and 31st in EPA per dropback. Overall they are 30th in deep ball completion rate and 32nd in DVOA against deep passing. Prescott is 11th in deep ball completion rate and fifth in deep ball accuracy rating. Prescott is a strong QB1 with top-five upside this week.

Joshua Dobbs: Dobbs has thrown a total of 17 passes in his NFL career in the regular season, completing 58.8% of them with 2.6 yards per attempt. This is such a small sample that it’s not worth diving into, so let’s look at how he fared this preseason with the Browns. Among 67 quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks, Dobbs was 12th in PFF passing grade, 27th in adjusted completion rate, and 40th in yards per attempt. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers by any stretch of the imagination. Dobbs does offer some rushing upside, though. Over his five-year preseason resume, Dobbs has rushed for 6.7 yards per carry (12 attempts) with three rushing scores. The plus for Dobbs is the Dallas secondary has been a shell of their former selves after injuries have left them decimated. Since Week 14, they are 32nd in success rate per dropback, 31st in EPA per dropback, 28th in fantasy points per game, and 29th in yards per attempt allowed to quarterbacks. Dobbs is a basement-level QB2.

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott is the RB16 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 12, he hasn’t finished lower than RB18 in any week. He has been a touchdown machine, scoring in each of his last eight games. Elliott is 14th in red zone touches and sixth in total touchdowns. Over his last five games, he’s been running extremely well, ranking 15th in yards after contact per attempt, 11th in breakaway rate, and 11th in missed tackles forced (minimum 20 carries). Since Week 11, Tennessee has been sixth in rushing success rate, seventh in EPA per rush, and seventh in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. With Pollard out, look for Elliott to be the workhorse for as long as this game is competitive. The Titans’ defense is decimated with Denico Autry doubtful, Bud Dupree out, Jeffrey Simmons out, Dylan Cole out, and Zach Cunningham out. I’m taking their previous run defense prowess with a grain of salt in Week 17, with this depth chart looking like a shell of its former self. Elliott is an RB1.

Tony Pollard: Pollard has been ruled out.

Derrick Henry: Henry has been listed as doubtful, so we should proceed as if he’ll be out. Hassan Haskins is the waiver wire pickup RIGHT NOW! The Tennessee Tank is the RB4 in fantasy soaking up the second-highest opportunity share while ranking first in carries, third in red zone touches, and second in rushing yards. Henry has seen an uptick in his receiving usage this year, with a 10.8% target share (17th), 32 receptions (22nd), and 379 receiving yards (eighth). He is first in yards per route run and eighth in catch rate. These are beautiful usage metrics to go along with his fifth-most evaded tackles and breakaway runs as the early down hammer. Henry is still a volume-based RB1 if he plays.

Hassan Haskins: Haskins has looked good this season with his limited work. He has 3.27 yards after contact per attempt (11 carries) and a 72.7 PFF elusive rating. He’s also secured all seven of his targets through the air (0.56 yards per route run). Haskins should be the workhorse for this backfield as he worked ahead of Julius Chestnut, who was regulated to kick-off duties in Week 16. Haskins is an RB3 with RB2 upside this week as a volume play. Since Week 11, Dallas has been seventh in rushing success rate, third in EPA per rush, 11th in yards per carry, and fourth in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: Watching Lamb assert himself as one of the league’s emerging alpha wide receivers has been one of the highlights of 2022. Lamb is WR8 in fantasy with a 28.9% target share (eighth), 34.9% air yard share (12th), and the eighth-best open rate among wide receivers tied with Stefon Diggs. Lamb is 11th in deep targets and ten red zone targets in his last 11 games. Lamb is a WR1 that will run about 80% of his routes against Roger McCreary (72.5% catch rate, 116.3 passer rating).

Michael Gallup: Gallup has started to flash a fantasy heartbeat with top-40 fantasy finishes in three of his last five games (WR16, WR38, WR28). Over that span, he has eight red zone targets with at least seven targets in three contests. Since Week 11, Tennessee has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Gallup is a WR4 that will run about 93% of his routes against Tre Avery (55.2% catch rate, 101.4 passer rating) and Greg Mabin (61.5% catch rate, 93.1 passer rating).

Treylon Burks: Last week was a dud for Burks, but some of this is out of his control. Burks had an 89% route per dropback rate, which is fantastic, but he only saw three targets and failed to secure any of them. The Titans’ passing offense, from a volume and efficiency standpoint, is on thin ice with Willis under center. This week’s matchup with Dallas could help in the efficiency department, but the volume isn’t likely to skyrocket. Burks has a 16.1% target share this season which isn’t great, but he’s excelled with the ball in his hands, ranking 24th in yards per route run and 19th in yards per reception. With his volume capped and the low-quality targets he’s likely to see, Burks is a boom-or-bust low-end WR4 or WR5. Burks has nine deep targets in his nine games played. He’ll run about 73% of his routes on the perimeter against Trevon Diggs (69.7% catch rate, 98.7 passer rating) and DaRon Bland (74.6% catch rate, 98.7 passer rating).

Robert Woods: Woods is unplayable at this stage. He has been toast all season. Tannehill’s return couldn’t inject life into his dusty legs at this stage, so Willis doesn’t have a shot at helping him to a productive stat line in Week 17. Woods hasn’t seen more than four targets or finished with more than 30 receiving yards in any of Willis’s three starts. A wide receiver like Burks, who has the explosive ability to create on his own on any play, has an out with Willis playing quarterback. That isn’t something at this juncture that Woods can call upon. He’s 78th in yards per route run and 76th in yards after the catch.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz: In the nine games Prescott has started since his return, Schultz has finished as a TE1 in five. This season, Schultz has a 17.5% target share while ranking seventh among tight ends in red zone targets. He’s had an 80% or higher route run rate in three of his last four games. Since Week 11, Tennessee has been giving to opposing tight ends, ranking 23rd in catch rate, 26th in yards per reception, 32nd in receiving yards per game, and 28th in fantasy points per game allowed. Schultz is a high-end TE1.

Chigoziem Okonkwo: Okonkwo takes the same volume and efficiency hit as every other pass catcher in the Tennessee offense with Willis under center. Okonkwo hasn’t seen more than three targets in any game Willis has started. He’s only once produced more than ten receiving yards (48 receiving yards) which were done on one reception which screams noise more than substance. Since Week 11, Dallas has been seventh in fantasy points per game and 11th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Okonkwo is a basement-level TE2 this week.

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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*