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Fantasy Football Week 13 Start/Sit Advice: Riskiest & Safest Players (2022)

by Bonnie Robinson | @FantasyQueenB | Featured Writer
Dec 2, 2022
Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has been highly efficient in his last three starts, combining for 815 passing yards and six TDs with zero interceptions.

When Geno Smith and Trevor Lawrence are currently top 12 QB performers in fantasy, you know it’s been a crazy year. Geno has even outperformed Aaron Rodgers in all but one week and averages more points per game than Kyler Murray. It’s been rough making predictions with so much volatility in the NFL. With playoffs around the corner, making the right starting lineup choices is more crucial than ever. Hopefully, this column will help you navigate decisions better than Jeff Saturday did when he failed to call a timeout before the last third down against the Steelers.

This recurring pseudo-start/sit article focuses on some of the players I feel are the safest or riskiest starts in fantasy football each week, especially relative to their ranking in the PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). It will mainly include more of the under-the-radar players. Always start your studs, as the big names will be omitted each week except in extreme circumstances. You can ask me start-sit questions on Twitter.

Safest Starts

Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX)
In the last month of action, Trevor Lawrence has played more like the No. 1 overall pick from a season ago. In an impressive win against the Baltimore Ravens, he completed 29 of 37 passes for 321 yards and three touchdowns. It was the second-most passing yards he’s thrown in a game in his career. He’s been highly efficient in his last three starts, combining for 815 passing yards and six TDs with zero interceptions. Lawrence only trails Joe Burrow for the highest PFF passing grade over the previous month. He has been a top 12 QB for fantasy in his last three games and has finished inside the top 6 in the previous two. Look for his hot streak to continue against the Detroit Lions’ 32nd-ranked pass rush in what could be a shootout.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
On the flip side of the game aforementioned, Amon-Ra St. Brown has top-5 potential again this week. I’m getting a sense of deja vu as he has been on a bit of a late heater. The “Sun God” torched the Bills, catching nine passes for 122 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the overall WR3. In the last five weeks of the 2021 season, he averaged 25 fantasy points per game. While not quite hitting that mark yet, St. Brown is averaging 21.6 ppg over the last three weeks. He’ll have a chance to pad those numbers against a Jaguars defense that is vulnerable to slot receivers. Jameson Williams could return this week but would probably be on a pitch count. His presence won’t likely affect St. Brown, whose floor is over eight targets. St. Brown should continue to roll as this matchup has the second-highest over/under in Week 13.

Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
Garrett Wilson has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four games. He displayed instant chemistry with new starter Mike White under center, posting a 5/95/2 receiving line. He led the Jets in targets, catches, receiving yards and touchdowns. This week’s matchup is another favorable one for the Jets’ passing game. The Vikings are bottom five in pass rush, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. With their defense riddled with injuries, that number jumped to the second-most points allowed over the last month. Additionally, the Jets may have to lean on their aerial attack to keep up with the Vikings’ offense at home, especially with a depleted backfield. If White remains at the helm, more WR1 performances are likely in store for Wilson — and that should start this week.

Riskiest Starts

Miles Sanders (RB – PHI)
Miles Sanders is coming off a monstrous day against Green Bay. The fourth-year RB deserves kudos for his two touchdowns and career-high 143 yards rushing. Just realize that the Packers have been terrible against the run of late, and accumulating fantasy points against the Titans might be less feasible. Tennessee hasn’t allowed a running back to really get going on the ground since Week 1. That is worrisome since Sanders’ production depends on his rushing, considering his underuse in the passing game. He also loses a decent amount of snaps to teammates Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell, including at the goal line. Not to mention that Jalen Hurts is among the best rushing QBs in the league. The Titans are much more vulnerable through the air, surrendering the seventh-most points to opposing signal callers and the second-most to wide receivers. It won’t be surprising if the Eagles rely on their passing game in this one.

Jeff Wilson (RB – MIA)
Despite a juicy matchup against the woeful Houston Texans run defense, Jeff Wilson’s touchdown salvaged an otherwise inefficient day. Minus the TD, he only recorded 13 carries for a paltry 39 yards and had just one 13-yard reception. His numbers might have been a little higher, but he missed a part of the game with a calf injury. Wilson will have a taller order this week against his former team. San Francisco’s defense allows the second-fewest points to RBs, and the team has familiarity with his tendencies. Although Wilson has been operating as Miami’s preferred back, the likely return of Raheem Mostert still muddies his outlook somewhat. It will also hinder Wilson’s performance if Dolphins LT Terron Armstead misses the game.

CTAs

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Bonnie Robinson is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Bonnie, check out her profile and find her on Twitter @FantasyQueenB.

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