The Packers are home favorites against the injury-depleted Rams. Sadly, there’s not much to get excited about for the Rams. As a result, there are only a few suggested players from them. Conversely, the Packers have some fun, high-ceiling options. Green Bay is well-represented.
Game: Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
Spread: GB -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 39.5 Points
Rams Analysis: The Rams have played four games without starting quarterback Matthew Stafford this year. According to numberFire, they've attempted 58 passes (one was a fake punt) and 49 rushes by non-quarterbacks in those four contests. So, they haven't entirely abandoned the pass.
Further, Los Angeles attempted seven passes and three rushes by non-quarterbacks in a neutral game script last week, despite Baker Mayfield having less than two days to learn the playbook. So, there's potential for the offense to take a step forward. Regardless, Mayfield has struggled this year, and a one-week sample of competence doesn't erase his prior failures. Thus, it's reasonable to fade him on this showdown slate.
Instead, investing in two of his favorite options in the passing game last week is more appealing. Tutu Atwell had eye-catching stats and underlying numbers. He had a 25.7% Target Share, five receptions, 50 receiving yards and 86 Air Yards. In addition, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), he ran 26 routes, had a 34.6% targets per route run rate, 1.92 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) and a 13.1-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT).
Ben Skowronek was also heavily involved. He had a 22.9% Target Share, ran 37 routes, had a 21.6% targets per route run rate, seven receptions, 89 receiving yards, 83 Air Yards, 2.41 Y/RR and a 9.9-yard aDOT.
There might be some big-play opportunities for Atwell and Skowronek. Since Week 8, Green Bay has allowed 11 completions on 22 passes that traveled at least 20 Air Yards for 428 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. Atwell is the most attractive option from the Rams, salary considered. Further, he's a screaming value on FanDuel.
Packers Analysis: The Packers' offense was humming before their bye. They scored at least 28 points in three of their last four games. Green Bay has opted for a balanced offense when they're not in a hole. Since Week 8, they've attempted 87 passes and 82 rushes by non-quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, the Rams' opponents have used a balanced approach against them in two games without superstar Aaron Donald. In those games, LA's opponents attempted 49 passes and 41 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts. In addition, per Football Outsiders, the Rams are ninth in rush defense DVOA and 25th in pass defense DVOA. Therefore, they're not an imposing matchup for Green Bay's offense.
Aaron Rodgers has passed for fewer than 200 yards in back-to-back games. However, he's intriguing. Rodgers has thrown multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games and has a healthy receiving corps. Rodgers also has a stellar matchup for completing deep passes since the Rams have allowed 11 completions on 20 attempts that traveled at last 20 Air Yards since Week 8 for 373 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.
Christian Watson is the game-changing talent in Green Bay's passing attack. Since Week 10, he's had a 22.6% Target Share, 24.3% target per route run, 15 receptions, 313 receiving yards, 467 Air Yards, 2.93 Y/RR, a 19.2-yard aDOT and seven receiving touchdowns. Watson also had a 46-yard touchdown run. Watson can't maintain this pace. Nevertheless, the dynamic rookie has a high ceiling, and his salary is light for his underlying stats and role in Green Bay's offense. The matchup is excellent, too. According to Football Outsiders, No. 1 wideouts have averaged the third-most receiving yards per game (89.6) against the Rams.
Allen Lazard has had rock-solid marks, while Watson zoomed past him for top pass-catcher honors. In Green Bay's last four games, Lazard had a 20.9% Target Share, 20.0% targets per route run rate, 15 receptions, 193 receiving yards, 281 Air Yards, 1.61 Y/RR and a 12.3-yard aDOT. Sadly, Lazard hasn't scored a touchdown.
Romeo Doubs is back in the mix this week. What will his role be? How will it impact the other receivers? It's unclear. Doubs' underlying stats were underwhelming before he was injured. However, he will add another vertical option to the fold, and he has flashed potential. Doubs was targeted on an adequate 19.8% of his routes, had a 10.2-yard aDOT and scored three touchdowns. It's possible his vertical usage can benefit from the emergence of Watson since defenses will have to pick their poison.
Randall Cobb probably won't be entirely phased out of the offense, but Lazard could kick into the slot to allow Watson and Doubs to play on the perimeter in three-wide-receiver formations. Since Week 10, Lazard has played 42.5% of his passing snaps in the slot. So, Green Bay has already used him in the slot semi-regularly. I'm guessing Watson and Lazard will run the most routes and play in two-wide-receiver formations.
Green Bay's running game should be busy. Aaron Jones is the more well-rounded back and has had a more voluminous role than A.J. Dillon. Jones has rushed 45 times versus 35 for Dillon in neutral game scripts since Week 8. Jones has also run 65 routes compared to 50 for Dillon.
Moreover, Jones had a 15.7% Target Share, 27.7% target per route run rate, 16 receptions, 118 receiving yards, 1.82 Y/RR and one touchdown reception, making him a legitimate passing-game weapon. Meanwhile, Dillon had a 7.0% Target Share, 16.0% targets per route run rate, seven receptions, 60 receiving yards and 1.20 Y/RR. So, Dillon can chip in receiving contributions, but the Packers actively get Jones the ball in the passing game.
Jones has also narrowly outproduced Dillon on the ground. In Green Bay's last four games, Jones had 57 attempts, 247 rushing yards and one touchdown, and Dillon had 45 attempts, 235 yards and two touchdowns. Fortunately, both backs can benefit from Green Bay's run-blocking prowess and infatuation with pounding the rock. According to Football Outsiders, the Packers are second in Adjusted Line Yards (4.83). And when the Packers were tied or leading in games since Week 8, they attempted 33 passes and 43 rushes by non-quarterbacks. Thus, if the Packers handle their business as 7.0-point favorites, Jones and Dillon can help DFS squads. They can also be rostered together if you're bullish about the Packers hammering the Rams.
Final Thoughts: Rodgers, Jones and Watson are my favorite captain/MVP choices. And unbalanced lineups that include only one or two Rams are my preferred lineup construction.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
