The 49ers manhandled the Bucs on Sunday, and the Seahawks suffered a loss to the Panthers. Nevertheless, the game’s spread is small. There are a few critical injuries to monitor for this contest. Regardless, the favored 49ers are more well-represented than the Seahawks in this piece.
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Game: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: SF -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
49ers Analysis
The 49ers are reportedly going to take until Thursday to determine Brock Purdy’s availability this week. Josh Johnson will start if Purdy is out. However, since Purdy’s injury can’t be worsened by playing, it makes logical sense for him to attempt to play through it. But, of course, there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to gut out the pain, creating a risky quarterback situation to invest in. Johnson is a must-use option at FanDuel for only $5,000 if Purdy is out. Although, I’m inclined to sit FD’s showdown slate out entirely if Purdy is out since Johnson will be insanely chalky, and fading him is unwise. Thus, an already smaller roster than DraftKings’ showdown slate will be further reduced with a shoo-in Johnson occupying a roster spot.
Fortunately, the passing game hasn’t been neutered since Jimmy Garoppolo was injured. According to numberFire, they’ve attempted 46 passes and 37 rush attempts in neutral game scripts since Week 13. Sadly, Deebo Samuel is out while nursing a few injuries. According to numberFire, Samuel has 15 targets, a 25.9% Target Share, 10 receptions, 101 receiving yards and 71 Air Yards on Purdy’s pass attempts. Further, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), he’s run 51 routes and had a 29.4% target per route run rate since Week 13. So, Samuel is vacating a ton of passing-game usage.
George Kittle is a candidate to absorb some of the work in a cushy matchup this week. According to Football Outsiders, the Seahawks have averaged the fourth-most receiving yards per game (59.7) allowed to tight ends this season. Moreover, per Pro-Football-Reference, Seattle is tied for the fifth-most touchdown receptions allowed (six) to tight ends in 2022. Tight ends have also averaged a ho-hum 4.2 receptions per game against Seattle. Yet, they’ve ripped off an eye-catching 13.6 yards per reception. As a result, Kittle can help DFS teams on a limited volume of targets.
Jauan Jennings is a matchup-driven value pick. He’ll be bumped up to the No. 2 wideout spot behind Brandon Aiyuk since Samuel is out. Fortunately, No. 2 wide receivers have averaged the eighth-most receiving yards per game (55.7) against the Seahawks. Since Week 13, Jennings has been targeted on an adequate 15.6% of his routes and had three receptions, 39 yards, 40 Air Yards and one touchdown.
The most exciting passing-game option from the 49ers is probably Christian McCaffrey, though. He has a juicy 20.7% Target Share on Purdy’s passes and he’s been targeted on 22.2% of his routes, producing nine receptions, 81 receiving yards and two touchdowns since Week 13. The talented receiving back also had 37 Air Yards since Week 13. So, CMC isn’t merely used on swing passes behind the line of scrimmage.
CMC’s receiving outlook is appealing. Yet, his rushing outlook is tantalizing. According to Football Outsiders, the Seahawks are 27th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) since Week 8. In addition, teams have attempted 140 passes and 140 rush attempts by non-quarterbacks against the Seahawks in neutral game scripts since Week 8. Kyle Shanahan probably doesn’t need his arm twisted to lean into his rushing attack.
A run-heavy game plan will also open the door for Jordan Mason to produce value. He’s attempted seven rushes in neutral game scripts since Week 13. There will also be a few more rushing chances for the taking for CMC and Mason. Samuel had six attempts in neutral game scripts in San Francisco’s two previous games. Mason isn’t a flashy runner, but the rookie averages a robust 5.3 yards per carry.
San Francisco’s defense is the best in the NFL. According to Pro-Football-Reference, they’re fourth in yards allowed per play (4.8), tied for fifth in turnovers forced (21), eighth in sacks (36) and first in scoring defense (15.2 points per game). The matchup isn’t too shabby, either. The Seahawks have allowed at least three sacks and had multiple turnovers in their previous three games.
Seahawks Analysis
Geno Smith isn’t ready to disappear. He’s having an incredible season, and Pete Carroll trusts him to air it out. The Seahawks have attempted 157 passes and 88 rushes by non-quarterbacks since Week 8. Smith has tossed multiple touchdowns in seven straight games and 11 of 13 contests this year. He’s also averaged 301.8 passing yards per game in his last five games.
Unfortunately, he has a nightmare matchup. The 49ers are first in pass defense DVOA since Week 8. Smith also struggled mightily against the 49ers in Week 2, passing for only 197 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception. The Seahawks scored only seven points in their blowout loss to San Francisco. So, Smith isn’t a must-use option, even though he’s a stellar selection.
D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the top two pass-catchers in Seattle’s offense by a wide margin. Both have had excellent seasons. However, Metcalf has sizable advantages in underlying stats lately. Since Week 8, Metcalf has bested Lockett in Target Share (27.2% versus 21.6%), targets per route run (26.2% compared to 20.7%) and Air Yards (643 and 434).
The matchup is also more advantageous for Metcalf than Lockett. No. 1 wide receivers have averaged the seventh-most receiving yards per game (76.1) against the 49ers, and No. 2 wideouts have fallen a bit short of the league average (48.3 versus 49.7 receiving yards per game).
Marquise Goodwin is also a nifty option. The veteran speedster and former 49er has been targeted on 14.5% of his routes in his last five games and hauled in 15 receptions for 231 yards and two touchdowns.
Ken Walker III will find the sledding tough on the ground if he returns from a one-game absence due to an ankle injury. The 49ers are fourth in rush defense DVOA since Week 8. Nevertheless, Walker is a bell-cow back and can rip off long plays. The rookie running back has had at least a 71% snap share in his last five healthy games.
Walker had his first outburst as a pro in Week 5 when he rumbled for 88 yards and a touchdown on eight attempts. And, according to PFF, Walker is tied for fifth in 10-plus-yard rushes (18) and is first in breakaway percentage, with 310 of his 591 rushing yards coming on rushes of at least 15 yards since Week 5. Despite the wretched matchup, the rookie’s boom-or-bust running style gives him the potential to come through for gamers who use him on their squad.
Final Thoughts
CMC is the best captain/MVP choice. However, Smith is a decent option, Metcalf is stellar and Walker is a viable contrarian choice. Finally, unbalanced lineups with more 49ers than Seahawks are optimal.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
