With the NFL Playoffs nearing a climax, it is time for dynasty players to look forward. Fans of 28 teams are already looking ahead to the 2023 NFL Draft, knowing their shot at glory is over for another year.
Therefore, it is time to look forward to what a dynasty rookie mock draft in a 1-QB draft could look like come May or whenever you plan to host your rookie drafts.
- 2023 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Superflex
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: 10-Team, Half-Point PPR
- Top Dynasty Rookies: Quarterbacks
- Top Dynasty Rookies: Running Backs
- Top Dynasty Rookies: Wide Receivers
- Top Dynasty Rookies: Tight Ends
Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft Picks & Advice
The 2022 Doak Walker Award-winner ended his college career with 599 touches, amassing 4,215 yards and 41 touchdowns. Bijan Robinson is a generational talent, and many professional mock drafters see him going inside the top 20 picks in the NFL Draft come April. There is no need to look at anyone else at the 1.01 this year.
Jahmyr Gibbs made the transfer to Alabama in 2022 and elevated his draft stock as a result. Catching over 100 passes in his three years at Georgia Tech and Alabama showcases he will be very comfortable catching the ball in the NFL. A fine junior year at Alabama managing 1,370 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns means he should be the second back off the ball, with room to elevate himself in a role similar to what we have seen from Alvin Kamara for years.
This incredible X-receiver led this team on an unforeseeable Cinderella run all the way to the College Football National Championship. He is big, has great hands and will make an immediate splash in the NFL as long as he gets the opportunity to start right away. I don’t expect a receiver to go inside the top 10 of the NFL Draft this year. However, I expect Quentin Johnston to be in the conversation for the first wide receiver off the board. I also think he profiles to have a long and productive career, especially if he falls toward teams already settled at quarterback in the draft.
Despite taking a step back statistically in 2022 following his transfer to USC, Jordan Addison still showed enough on tape to be considered a first-round wide receiver in the 2023 NFL Draft. This would have been a significantly more risky pick a few years ago. However, with his speed and catch ability, and having seen other similar profile players like DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle succeed in the NFL and in fantasy football, Addison looks a bit more surefire now than he would have back then.
Another player who used the transfer portal to great effect in 2022 was Zach Evans. After transferring to Ole Miss, he amassed over 1,000 scrimmage yards and maintained a healthy 6.9 yards per carry in his three years of college football. There will be some question marks around his receiving profile, considering he only caught 30 passes in his college career. However, there will be plenty of teams excited by Evans’ burst and ability to get yards after contact that he should end up in a reasonable position to put up good fantasy points in his rookie year.
Another receiver expected to go in the first round of the NFL Draft is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He outperformed his teammate Garrett Wilson when they both played together at Ohio State in 2021. Smith-Njigba is also a classy route runner who will separate better than anyone in this class. His 2022 was disrupted by hamstring issues, meaning there is just one year of production, albeit exceptional, to judge Smith-Njihba on. The combine will be incredibly important to see who will be willing to take the risk for this really high-upside player. However, 1.06 looks like a good spot to take that risk for this rookie draft.
Tank Bigsby wasn’t at his absolute best in 2022. However, he certainly was more efficient with his touches, surpassing 1,100 yards from scrimmage for the second year in a row. The plus and minus on Bigsby are he can show he can carry a full workload. He has managed over 6oo touches in three years in his college career. He already has a lot of tread on the tires. However, he has shown he is durable, reliable and consistent. I project Bigsby is likely to be a two-down back in the NFL and likely a 1A back. However, will NFL coaches see him the same way or in a lesser role?
Sean Tucker profiles very similarly to Bigsby, and these players could be selected in either order. Tucker can certainly claim to be the better receiving back of the two. He also has found the endzone 31 times in his college career. However, over 650 touches and many more snaps blocking have taken their toll on Tucker. As we have seen with other backs, has he already had the best days of his career before he lands in the NFL? He is worth the risk at this pick, as the drop-off to the next couple of backs is significant. However, some could take Tucker higher in your drafts. He has a wide range in this first round.
Another receiver on the smaller side in this draft is Josh Downs. However, back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons are hard to ignore at this stage of a rookie draft. Downs is one of those players who projects to be a solid WR2 on a team with upside. He could also perform in the slot and be effective. Downs is in the back end of the first-round conversation. His draft capital will determine if he is worth the pick or waiting an extra couple of picks. However, at this stage of the draft, he looks to be the safest pick with reasonable upside.
This is the part of the draft where a bit of risk should be taken. However, Kayshon Boutte broke out as a true freshman. And, whilst he has struggled to match those production numbers, due to an ankle injury, amongst other things, Boutte is an absolute wild card. In the right landing spot, with the right coach, Boutte could be the best value of this whole draft. However, he could also become an obscure receiver who will not make it to his second contract. But make no mistake, Boutte has all the tools to succeed in the NFL. He just needs the right opportunity. He is worth the risk here.
Michael Mayer finished his college career with almost 2,100 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. He might not be threatening Kyle Pitts‘ college numbers, but he certainly has an impressive receiving profile and size. With the tight end position really diminishing in value in recent years, Mayer is someone who could get you instant success and value with this pick. Mayer will likely be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. He is that good. You will struggle to get more instant value at this stage of the draft.
It is probably unlikely that if you are picking at the 1.12, you have a strong need for a quarterback. However, if you only have the one on your roster with retirements, injuries and free agency about to cripple your bench, you could do a lot worse than select CJ Stroud. Stroud will likely go after Bryce Young in the NFL Draft. However, for fantasy purposes, Stroud is who you need to select. He has the bigger arm and can make many of the throws he will need in his armory to succeed in the NFL. He also showed he could take on the best defense in the country and give them a scare. He won’t shy away from the big occasions. It certainly seems like the curse of Ohio State quarterbacks not working out in the NFL is going to be put to bed with Stroud. However, do not expect immediate success. He is likely going to need a year or two before you see top-12 production at the position from Stroud.
Zach Charbonnet is another back in the mold of Bigsby and Tucker, with some receiving ability and a lot of tread on the tires already. The biggest negative on Charbonnet is his lack of burst and short space quickness. However, it is hard to slow him down once he gets going. There is a role for Charbonnet. However, is he going to be more of a specialist, which won’t have a ton of value for fantasy? Or, can he carve himself out an opportunity to be the starter on his team? Only time will tell. I do like his odds of finding a good role for himself. However, not on opening day.
There is a lot to like about Zay Flowers. He has a great production record at Boston College, with over 3,400 receiving yards and 31 touchdowns in his college career. He also broke out at age 20, another indicator of wide receivers’ success. However, as the third-smaller receiver in this draft and being significantly less appealing than the other two, it is unlikely he will go in the first round or high-second round of the NFL Draft. Not to mention, not declaring early is a significant red flag when looking at success at the position. There is a lot to like about Flowers, and he is worth the gamble at this stage of the draft due to the potential upside. However, don’t be fooled that he is a can’t-miss prospect due to his production, as this is not the case.
2.03. Kendre Miller (RB – TCU)
Kendre Miller is another hero from that incredible TCU team that went all the way to the College Football National Championship. Miller had a huge breakout year, rushing for 1,399 yards and 17 touchdowns in his junior year. There will be some concerns about his receiving pedigree and ability to carry a full workload. However, if he is given an opportunity, you are sure he will grab it with both hands.
2.04. Rashee Rice (WR – SMU)
Rashee Rice is another player who did not declare early but has a very respectable college profile. Rice finished with over 3,100 receiving yards and 25 touchdowns. He also has a fairly good-sized frame mixed with speed and the ability to get open. The lack of serious competition playing in the American Conference will mean Rice will need a good combine to shoot up draft boards. So for this draft, taking him at the 2.04 feels like a nice upside potential pick. However, it does come with risk.
This feels like the right range to take a shot on Young. His size and arm strength leave a lot to be desired. However, what he lacks in that department, he more than makes up for in football IQ, his ability to make plays, stand in the pocket and complete a high percentage of his throws. However, considering it is likely Young who will end up on a team struggling for talent and potentially an offensive line, you will need to be very patient before you see a significant return from him. While he will likely play right away, don’t expect to use him in your fantasy lineups until at least year No. 2. He has the potential to post low-end QB1 numbers once he is acclimatized. However, this won’t happen overnight.
The best rushing QB in this class, Anthony Richardson can do damage to teams with his legs. If he can work on his throwing mechanics and accuracy to earn a coach’s trust to start him, he will have a good chance to make a splash on your dynasty team. He will certainly sit for at least one year, maybe longer. Richardson will need to go on a trajectory similar to the likes of Jalen Hurts and show constant improvement. Then he will return tremendous value on your selection here.
The Biletnikoff Award winner for 2022 is going this late due to the talent and depth in this class. However, his junior year was nothing short of sensational. The concern will be only one year of production. But Jalin Hyatt has all the ability to translate that one year of production into the NFL. He is a steal in this range of rookie drafts.
Marvin Mims is another smaller receiver who has that knack for getting open. He has decent speed and protects the ball well. The argument is he isn’t exceptional at anything. However, Mims improved yearly at the college level and showed he responded to coaching. There is some reasonable upside with Mims in this range.
2.09. Kenny McIntosh (RB – Georgia)
The two-time National Champion running back comes off the board here. If you are box-score scouting him, the numbers don’t really stack up. However, considering he was on the best team in the country for the last two years and showed a reasonable amount of his talent in that time, he will be a player that will attract a lot of attention come the NFL Draft. McIntosh can handle the pressure and a rotation, being considered a coach’s dream at Georgia. He will interview well at the combine. There is some upside to be had here.
2.10. Xavier Hutchinson (WR – Iowa State)
Xavier Hutchinson is a very consistent wide receiver prospect who can win with speed and win contested catches. Has some work to do at the line of scrimmage. However, some coaches will fall in love with Hutchinson, meaning he could represent enormous value this late in the draft.
2.11. Chase Brown (RB – Illinois)
Chase Brown is going to the NFL the hard way. Brown’s five-year career in college has seen him touch the ball an astonishing 734 times, scoring 21 times. However, he got better every year, scoring 13 times as a senior. He is a ready-made pro back who could land in a situation that sees him get an opportunity to compete. And, with 355 touches in his senior year, he has shown he can handle a professional load when called upon.
Cedric Tillman was many people’s pick to be a first-round prospect 12 months ago. However, an ankle injury and the emergence of Hyatt meant that his stock has declined heading into the 2023 NFL Draft. That said, he wins with his size and dominated contested catches in the toughest college football conference. If he can land on the right team and develop, he could return great value at this pick.
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.