The 2022 fantasy football season is over, which means one thing: it’s time to start prepping for 2023. Sure, the NFL playoffs are happening, and you may be inclined to root for your favorite NFL team, play DFS or partake in a bit of responsible sports betting (head on over to BettingPros if you do), but let’s be honest with each other. The end of the fantasy football season is the time to celebrate your wins, lick your wounds from your losses, and take a look at what went what, what went wrong, and how you can get back to dominating again next season.
We asked a handful of experts to name a player they’re likely avoiding in 2023 because his 2022 production isn’t sustainable. Here are their responses.
Which player’s 2022 production do you feel was unsustainable that you’ll avoid in 2023?
Jamaal Williams (RB – DET)
“Jamaal Williams’ name immediately springs to mind, but most fantasy managers will have the good sense not to overvalue Williams in 2023 based on his unsustainable 2022 TD rate. Leonard Fournette seems like a better choice for this category. He finished RB15 in half-point PPR scoring largely on the strength of his pass-catching numbers (73-523-3). But Fournette was ineffective as runner aside from a 127-yard rushing day in Week 1. From Week 2 on, Fournette averaged 3.2 yards per carry and had noticeably less juice than rookie Rachaad White. If 45-year-old Tom Brady doesn’t come back for another season of checking down heavily to his RBs, Fournette’s value is going to nosedive — and it’s possible he’ll be overtaken by White on the depth chart even if Brady returns.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“I love Jamaal Williams, the player and the person. Despite the fact he may be a top-tier human, he’s not a top-tier RB. His 15 TDs were his major value, and you simply can’t rely on them sustaining year over year. I also typically don’t like players who are RB5 or RB50 week to week. That model of player doesn’t work for me. If D’Andre Swift‘s health ever cooperates, that would also hurt Williams’ chances significantly of holding last season’s value.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Christian Kirk (WR – JAC)
“Christian Kirk had a magical 2022 season in his first year with the Jaguars. He got to operate as the No. 1 WR for Trevor Lawrence and thrived, finishing the year as the WR14 overall and WR22 in points per game. However, a lot of his production was tied to a career-high 8 receiving TDs. He ranked inside the top 10 in red-zone targets. My fear is that new Jags WR Calvin Ridley may eat into Kirk’s TD equity in 2023.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Geno Smith (QB – SEA)
“Geno Smith is a great story. He was on his way out of the NFL before getting a chance with the Seahawks, seizing the starting QB job and then not only playing well but essentially carrying Seattle into the playoffs. He finished as QB6 on the season, right behind Joe Burrow and Justin Fields, throwing for over 4,000 yards to go with 29 touchdown passes and over 300 yards rushing. He also completed over 70% of his passes, leading the NFL among qualified passers with a 70.2 mark. Even if the Seahawks bring in a younger QB to develop, Smith is likely to be their starting QB in 2023. But are those fantastic numbers really sustainable? Probably not. Smith is going to be a popular target in 2023 drafts for fantasy managers who want to wait on QB and take RBs and WRs while the elite QBs come off the board. But everything went right for Smith this season, and players and teams rarely get that lucky two seasons in a row, especially now that the rest of the league has a full season of tape of Geno running this offense.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.