The Bills and Bengals close Week 17 with a heavyweight matchup. Elite quarterbacks lead both offenses. There’s also not a shortage of high-end talent at the skill positions. So, gamers must make some difficult decisions when constructing their showdown lineups. Thankfully, this piece will sift through the pieces and provide advice for who to use.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: BUF -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 49.5 Points
The Bills and Bengals close Week 17 with a heavyweight matchup. Elite quarterbacks lead both offenses. There’s also not a shortage of high-end talent at the skill positions. So, gamers must make some difficult decisions when constructing their showdown lineups. Thankfully, this piece will sift through the pieces and provide advice for who to use.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: BUF -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 49.5 Points
Bills Analysis: Some pundits have described Buffalo's offense as Josh Allen-centric. It's true and checks out by the numbers. According to numberFire, the Bills have attempted 183 passes, 100 rushes by non-quarterbacks and 35 rushes (excluding kneels) by Allen in neutral game scripts since Week 10.
Allen's a threat through the air and on the ground. Entering this week, he was seventh in passing yards per game (268.6) and third in passing touchdowns (32). According to Pro-Football-Reference, Allen has also scored seven rushing touchdowns and averaged 49.7 rushing yards per game.
Cincinnati's defense is stellar. However, they're not impenetrable through the air. According to Football Outsiders, the Bengals are 19th in pass defense DVOA since Week 10. As a result, teams have attempted 115 passes and 87 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts during that period.
Sadly, Buffalo's two best wide receivers might have tough sledding. Yet, Stefon Diggs' usage and stats are too good to ignore. On Allen's 238 passes since Week 10, he's had a 25.6% Target Share, 41 receptions, 468 receiving yards, 597 Air Yards and three touchdowns. Diggs isn't a must-use player on this loaded slate, but his elite ceiling merits roster consideration.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Gabe Davis has run the most routes (261) for the Bills since Week 10. He also had a 14.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT) and led the Bills in Air Yards (607), making him a big-play threat. Further, Davis had a respectable 18.5% Target Share, 27 receptions, 346 receiving yards and three touchdowns. The Bengals haven't been easy to complete deep passes against, but they've yielded a 41.9% completion rate, 389 yards, two touchdowns and one interception on 31 passes that traveled at least 20 Air Yards since Week 10. Thus, Davis is a boom-or-bust option in a tricky matchup.
Dawson Knox has the best bang for your buck on this slate. Since Week 10, he's had a 15.1% Target Share, 26 receptions, 321 receiving yards, 329 Air Yards, a modest 8.9-yard aDOT and three touchdowns while running the third-most routes (228) for the Bills. The pass-catching tight end has a decent matchup, too. According to The 33rd Team and data from Sports Info Solutions, Cincinnati's allowed the 11th-most DraftKings and tied for the 14th-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends since Week 10.
Isaiah McKenzie has been inconsistent, routinely disappearing this year. However, he's popped up for a few fantasy-friendly performances, and McKenzie has fended off competition for the primary slot role on the Bills. The shifty slot wideout has the most advantageous matchup in Buffalo's receiving corps. Cinci's allowed the sixth-most DK and tied for the fifth-most FD points per game allowed to slot receivers since Week 10. McKenzie isn't a lock to take advantage of the matchup, but he has a path for producing a ceiling game tonight.
Khalil Shakir is a galaxy-brain suggestion. The Bills recently got the band back together, signing Cole Beasley and John Brown to their practice squad. Both veterans have been called up twice and can only be called up one more time in the regular season before they have to be added to the 53-man active roster. Nevertheless, Shakir's 24 routes since Week 14 have outpaced Beasley's 10 and Brown's one route. As long as at least one of the veterans is left on the practice squad, Shakir should continue to run routes, which could lead to targets in a potential shootout. Finally, Shakir has run routes on the perimeter and from the slot. So, he could be the next person up if Diggs, Davis or McKenzie were to get nicked up during the game, providing Shakir contingency upside.
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals, like the Bills, have a pass-first offense. They've attempted 154 passes and 81 rushes by non-quarterbacks since Week 10. Frankly, it's a smart move. Joe Burrow is elite.
The third-year quarterback was second in passing yards per game (284.0) and passing touchdowns (34) entering Week 17. Burrow isn't in the same class of rusher as Allen, but he's attempted 19 rushes (excluding kneels) in neutral game scripts since Week 10. In addition, Burrow has scored five rushing touchdowns and averaged 16.5 rushing yards per game. So, yes, Burrow's arm is his calling card, but he can also chip in fantasy value on the ground.
Tee Higgins is notably absent from the table above. The third-year wideout is a handful for defenses. However, Ja'Marr Chase has been the unquestioned No. 1 wideout for the Bengals since he returned from his hip injury in Week 13. The sophomore stud was targeted on 30.3% of Burrow's 155 passes since Week 13, reeling in 32 receptions for 355 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 395 Air Yards and a 9.1-yard aDOT.
Additionally, the matchup is good for Chase. According to Football Outsiders, the Bills have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game (72.7) to No. 1 wide receivers this year. Conversely, they've allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game (39.3) to No. 2 wideouts. Hence, the matchup is another reason to fade Higgins and spend the extra salary for Chase.
Tyler Boyd hasn't been a box-score-darling. Yet, he's a talented slot wideout and has an eye-catching matchup. Buffalo's permitted the fifth-most DK and tied for the fifth-most FD points coughed up to slot wideouts since Week 10. Moreover, other wide receivers (wideouts Football Outsiders doesn't classify as a No. 1 or No. 2 wide receiver) have tied for the fourth-most receiving yards per game (53.2) against Buffalo. Therefore, gamers shouldn't sleep on Boyd as a matchup-driven source of salary relief.
Final Thoughts: Allen, Burrow, Chase and Diggs are the top MVP options on FD. They're also excellent Captain picks on DK. However, Davis, Knox, Boyd and McKenzie are also viable Captains on DK because of the 1.5x salary consideration and the absence of value choices.
Still, jamming Allen and Burrow into rosters is the most notable advice for roster construction. Finally, balanced rosters are my preferred type.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
