Best Ball: Robust RB Strategy (2023 Fantasy Football)
Amongst the many micro-strategies of best ball, the running back strategies perhaps run deepest of any position. While Zero RB is probably the most controversial, Robust RB flies under the radar somewhat but has many of the same polarizing qualities. A Robust RB draft will feature at least three running backs in the first five rounds, and some people will expand that definition to include up to four running backs. Generally speaking, the idea is not to overload the position after taking the early running backs. You will have allocated a lot of draft capital to the position, and it’s sensible to try not to add more than 5-6 in total and fill up your other spots with receivers predominantly.
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- Best Ball Roster Construction Strategy
2023 Best Ball: Robust RB Strategy
The core belief behind this strategy is to hit the workhorse running backs heavily and avoid the ambiguity and timeshares that plague the position the deeper it gets. In isolation, this thought process feels robust, if you will. In PPR formats like FFPC, the value of the pass-catcher is slightly more defined than in half PPR (like Underdog uses). However, regardless of the platform, the popular thinking remains that you want a three-down workhorse with pass-catching and touchdown-scoring upside. In the graph below, we can see how typically, the later you select a running back, the greater the chances are that they will put up fewer points per game. Only running backs selected inside the top 50 in ADP averaged over 15 half-PPR points per game in 2022.
It’s not groundbreaking to point out that the running backs who score the most points tend to be selected earlier, but it’s the basis of the argument in favor of this draft strategy. Elite running backs are league winners, and elite running backs get drafted early on. Where Robust RB fails on occasion, though, is not in the correctly held belief that good running backs score the most points; instead, it fails because of the opportunity cost of acquiring a lot of them. As the below chart demonstrates, wide receivers make up more of the top 30 in PPR points per game scoring than running backs do year on year.
In Half PPR formats, running backs do make up more of the top 30, but again, the opportunity cost of taking them is steep. The chart below shows that the only wide receivers to average over 15 half PPR points had an ADP inside the top 26. 29 wide receivers did score between 10.0 and 14.9 points per game, compared to 22 running backs.
We also know that wide receivers are inherently a more reliable position in games played per season, as the running backs take on more of a beating every time they take to the field. As the below graph shows, receivers played more games on average than their running back counterparts in 2022.
We have established that running backs miss more games and make up less of the top-scoring players than wide receivers if you’re in a PPR setting. We also established that top-tier wide receivers also separate in scoring as running backs do. Robust RB truthers believe that taking three or four backs quickly mitigates the risk of one going down as they have others to step in. While that may be true, building your roster with injuries in mind is a tepid approach to best ball. While the data thus far hasn’t supported the strategy whatsoever, it’s worth looking back at a broader sample to see if the data support the strategy in different years. FFPC Slim and Underdog have only been around for a couple of years, but we can gain a bigger picture if we look at FFPC Classic data. FFPC Classic is a 28-round format, including defense and kickers. The table below shows win rates for teams that selected three running backs in the first five rounds (i.e., Robust RB builds). 2022 data isn’t fully available yet, but this table will be updated when it is.
(Data via RotoViz’s FFPC Win Rate Explorer)
|Total RB’s||2017 Win Rate||2018 Win Rate||2019 Win Rate||2020 Win Rate||2021 Win Rate|
With the baseline win rate being 8.6%, we can see that Robust RB has experienced strong points within the last five years, and while it hasn’t been consistent, it’s hard to argue that it should be faded entirely in favor of a more wide receiver-heavy approach.
In 2022 best ball drafts, it was possible to fall into combinations of Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, or Austin Ekeler in the first round, then add some combination of two players from Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, D’Andre Swift, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, and James Conner. Even hardened Zero RB fans found that kind of start difficult to pass up, but as the season went on lineups with those three faltered as performances dipped in periods and lineups failed to keep up with those featuring Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson. The charts below show advance rates for rounds 1-3, and we can see that 50% of wide receivers in these rounds had a positive advance rate, compared to 37.5% of running backs.
Robust RB is a strategy that remains interesting as part of a portfolio of drafts, particularly early in the best ball drafting season, as we can take advantage of ambiguity and value that pops up. Still, if you plan to draft a small amount of best ball teams, it’s a strategy that I would be less interested in. Other strategies have had more consistent win rates over the years. For instance, selecting one running back in round one, one more before round four, and then not taking another before round eight has led to above-average win rates on FFPC Classic every year out of the last five.
Using the current Underdog ADP, a robust RB build could consist of Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, and Travis Etienne. Or perhaps Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, and Rhamondre Stevenson. Taking those particular routes would mean passing on nearly all of the top 20 wide receivers by the time you make your fourth pick, giving your fantasy lineup a mullet feel. Half of it looks just fine (the running backs), but the other half is a little less pretty (wide receivers). If you took this one step further into the version of Robust RB that some people believe means you have four running backs through five rounds, you’ve already filled a bench spot in most best ball formats, and a non-RB player could have been more helpful to your starting lineup.
Furthermore, you’ve decided that a running back will fill your flex spot most weeks, and historically wide receivers have been a better choice in the flex. Like all drafts, we should approach the draft board with fluidity, and if running backs repeatedly fall to you, it makes sense to take them at a certain point. Still, when doing so, we should be cognizant of the strategy we’re drafting within and aim not to over-draft the position later on.
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