Matthew Freedman recently shared his latest 2023 NFL Mock Draft. Check out the main takeaways for skill position players below, along with the fantasy football dynasty rookie outlook for those players, courtesy of Andrew Erickson and Derek Brown. And check out our full dynasty rookie consensus rankings here.
- 2023 NFL Free Agency Signings Tracker
- NFL Free Agent & Draft Needs for Every Team
- Dynasty Trade Value Chart
- How to Prepare for Your Dynasty Rookie Draft
2023 NFL Draft Impact on Dynasty Rookie Drafts
Based on Freedman’s latest mock draft, here are a some things to look at for each position as you prepare for your dynasty rookie drafts:
NFL Mock Draft Takeaways: Quarterback
QB prospects C.J. Stroud (Ohio State) and Bryce Young (Alabama) are expected to be selected as the top two picks in the upcoming draft.
Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook:
- C.J. Stroud (Ohio State)
In 2021, Stroud was tenth in pressured adjusted completion rate and 12th in pressured PFF passing grade while facing the 16th-lowest pressure rate (23.8%, minimum 50 pressured dropbacks). Stroud has quiet feet against pressure and can make plays outside of structure. Stroud has effortless velocity on his throws. He has plenty of arm strength to fit any throw into a tight window. His accuracy is also sound on the move. He can layer throws against zone coverage with the best of them. His film is littered with special throws to the boundary that takes moxie to dial-up. He has no issues testing man coverage and tossing it up for his receiver to win. Stroud will sometimes hang on his first read, but there’s plenty of film of him performing full-field reads. He moves through his progressions quickly to find the open receiver. As the collegiate stats will show, Stroud isn’t a rushing threat, but that doesn’t mean he’s a statue in the pocket. He has plenty of maneuverability in the pocket, which he uses exceptionally well. He steps up in the pocket when necessary to avoid rushers and can get outside of structure when necessary and deliver an accurate throw on the run. Stroud won’t be a “rushing quarterback” at the next level, but that doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have the wheels to grab an easy 5-7 yards when the defense is offering it up.
– Derek Brown - Bryce Young (Alabama)
Bryce Young followed up his 2021 Heisman Trophy campaign as PFF’s highest-graded passer in the nation (91.3) in 2022. His 94.2 PFF passing grade at the intermediate level (10-19 yards downfield) also ranked first.Young didn’t throw at the NFL Combine but measured in at 5-foot-10 and 204 pounds. Getting over the 200-pound threshold was huge for Young, whose biggest flaw is his small stature. But his accuracy – second in catchable target rate (87%) and on-target percentage per Sports Info Solutions (77%) – will fit in the NFL.
– Andrew Erickson
NFL Mock Draft Takeaways: Running Back
Running back Bijan Robinson (Texas) is considered a top-tier talent and could be selected higher than expected, possibly to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8.
Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook:
- Bijan Robinson (Texas)
Texas running back Bijan Robinson is the consensus No. 1 RB across all draft publications. B-Rob finished the 2022 season as PFF’s second-highest-graded rusher in the FBS, tallying 18 rushing TDs and 1,575 rushing yards en route to a 37% dominator rating in his final year as a Longhorn. He forced 104 missed tackles (40% broken tackle rate) which have shown to be super predictive of success rushing at the NFL level. And among last year’s class, only Breece Hall posted a higher dominator rating (40%). Factor in that Robinson also finished 3rd among RBs in yards per catch (16.5) with zero drops and there’s no question as to why he’s the 1.01 already in rookie drafts. At 5-foot-11 and 215 pounds, Robinson has the requisite size and all the tools to be a three-down running back who never leaves the field.During NFL Combine testing, Robinson ran a 4.46 40-yard dash. He also jumped 37″ in the vertical (81st percentile) and 124″ in the broad jump (86th percentile). Per PlayerProfiler.com that awarded B-Rob an 89th percentile speed score. His 1.52 10-yard split nearly matched track star Devon Achane (1.51) and actually equaled Jamyr Gibbs (1.52).
– Andrew Erickson
NFL Mock Draft Takeaways: Wide Receiver
Wide receivers Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State), Quentin Johnston (TCU), Zay Flowers (Boston College), and Jordan Addison (USC) are among the top pass-catching prospects in the draft and could make an immediate impact in fantasy football.
Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State)
Smith-Njiba won’t burn you in the open field with his raw speed, but that isn’t necessary for him to succeed. He’s a route tactician with the route-running chops of an NFL veteran. Smith-Njiba’s snap at the top of his stem is excellent, which allows him to create easy separation. Any team investing high draft capital in him knows what they are getting: a high-volume wide receiver that can work both inside and on the perimeter. Yes, Smith-Njiba was a slot receiver in college, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the intangibles to get loose on the boundary. He wins with excellent, quick footwork at the line and in space. He’s more quick than fast. Also, in saying that, it has to be mentioned that he is plenty quick to win in the NFL. While it’s not a huge part of his game (only 16.1% of his 2021 target volume), he can win on vertical routes. He flashes the ability to stack corners on verticals from the slot easily. Smith-Njiba was ninth in yards per route run on deep targets, tied for first In PFF deep receiving grade, and second in passer rating when targeted on routes 20-plus yards in 2021 (minimum 15 deep targets). Smith-Njigba could be an immediate target hog in the NFL. He will be an immediate asset to the run game. He’s a tenacious blocker who engages well with defenders and anchors them. He won’t blow defenders out of their cleats, but he has the functional strength to hold running lanes or clear a path.
– Derek Brown - Quentin Johnston (TCU)
The 6-foot-3, 212-pound behemoth totaled 1,067 receiving yards, finishing fifth in his draft class with an elite 3.05 yards per route run. Quentin Johnston was a menace with the ball in his hands, finishing seventh in his draft class in yards after the catch per reception (8.9, 19 forced missed tackles). His forced missed tackle rate (38%) ranks first in the class per Sports Info Solutions.As a true freshman at 19 years old, Johnston broke out with a 21% dominator rating in 2020 as the team’s leading receiver, averaging 22.1 yards per reception – fifth best in the FBS. He followed up his early success with a 26% dominator rating in 2021, capped off by a stellar junior year with an identical 26% dominator rating, factoring in the games he missed due to injuryAlthough the future “X” receiver didn’t quite dominate production (23% college dominator rating) to the length that we see from consensus No. 1 overall-ranked wide receivers. Part of that can be attributed to his quarterback play, but it’s disheartening that he didn’t take another massive leap from his sophomore to junior season.From a testing perspective, both of Johnston’s jumps at the NFL Scouting Combine were in the 93rd percentile or better. And at TCU’s pro day, Johnston ran a sub-4.50 40-yard dash, generating a very high relative athletic score.
– Andrew Erickson - Zay Flowers (Boston College)
Zay Flowers spent four seasons at Boston College simply dominating as the team’s best wide receiver. He posted a career 33% dominator rating – the highest among all 30 prospects I sampled for this article – after a highly productive career as an Eagle. It all started with his initial breakout during the 2020 season, with Flowers catching 55 balls for 892 receiving yards and 9 receiving TDs en route to a 34% dominator rating in just his second season. His production profile would only increase in the following years to come, with back-to-back dominator ratings of 36% and 47%.His senior year was truly special as the 5-foot-9, 182-pound wideout racked up 78 receptions for 1,077 yards and 12 receiving TDs. Per Sports Info Solution, Flowers finished 3rd in the class in unique routes run, 6th in target share (30%) and third in deep route percentage (49%).The senior standout turned heads at the East-West Shrine Bowl, cementing himself into Round 1. He’s got explosiveness and burst that looks so similar to that of Antonio Brown. Not surprising for him to have “Brown-like tendencies” as he studied Brown exclusively as he developed his receiver skills. He also got the chance to work out with Brown during his offseason. Great company to associate with by NFL standards.
– Andrew Erickson - Jordan Addison (USC)
Addison is fluid and silky smooth through his routes. He’s quick in and out of his breaks. He displays nuance in his routes with pacing, subtle head fakes, and his understanding of leverage. His change of direction ability is effortless. He can gear down easily and jab step during a route without losing speed. Addison has a decent burst after the catch, but it’s not likely to ever be a calling card. He dealt with drops early in his collegiate career, with 14.3% and 9.9% drop rates before 2022. He displayed growth here in 2022, decreasing that mark to 3.3%. He has strong hands, though, with contested catch rates of 53.8% and 55.6% before 2022. Addison will never be confused as a body catcher as he routinely plucks the ball from the air away from this body. Addison is a versatile wide receiver that played from the slot in 2020-2021 (68.0-82.6%) before transitioning to the boundary (75.5% out wide) in 2022. His superb route running and short area separation skills allow him to play multiple roles fluidly. Addison’s varied release package at this stage of his career is impressive. Addison reminds me of watching DeVonta Smith with a difference in play strength. Smith played above his weight class, but Addison played at his weight.
– Derek Brown
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