Seven is the magic number for tonight’s MLB DFS slate. First, there are seven games on the main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel. Second, the action begins at 7:07 pm ET at both DFS providers. Today’s primer will highlight the top pitchers, stacks, core studs and values/punts.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Unfortunately, the middle-tier pitchers and bargains leave much to be desired. So, the top pitchers are among the slate's most expensive choices. The highest-salaried pitcher is the top option in all game types tonight. Fortunately, he's well worth his sizable salary. The second pick is the optimal SP2 in cash games at DK. Yet, the final listed pitcher on the table has a higher ceiling, making him an enticing tournament selection.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Spencer Strider (ATL) vs. MIA
Strider is a bonafide ace. He broke out last year and isn't losing moment this season. According to Fangraphs, Strider has had a 2.45 ERA, 2.79 xERA, 3.01 SIERA, 1.05 WHIP, 40.9 K% and 35.9 CSW% in four starts spanning 22.0 innings.
The right-handed strikeout machine has punched out precisely nine batters in each of his starts in 2023. Strider has also pitched at least 5.0 innings in every turn and allowed three runs twice and zero runs twice. Atlanta's ace has a cushy matchup tonight. The Marlins are tied for 22nd in wRC+ (89) and have had a 24.3 K% against righties in 2023. So, per Betting Pros, the Braves are -245, and the game's total is a non-threatening 8.0 runs. Strider's a no-doubt pick in cash games and a superb tournament option.
Jordan Montgomery (STL) at SF
Sadly, Montgomery is coming off of a wretched start. The Diamondbacks had 10 hits, seven runs and only two strikeouts against Montgomery. The lefty pitched only 4.0 innings against Arizona. Still, Montgomery had two quality starts in his three previous starts, allowing three runs in 5.0 innings in the outlier.
The 30-year-old hurler has a reasonable 3.95 xFIP this year and a get-right matchup in a pitcher-friendly park tonight. The Giants are 28th in wRC+ (67) against lefties and have an exploitable 30.2 K% against them this season. So, the Cards are -125, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. Thus, Montgomery should be a popular choice tonight and a good cash-game option as a result.
GPP Recommendation:
Sonny Gray (MIN) vs. NYY
Gray is pitching sensationally this year. In four starts totaling 22.0 innings, he's had a 0.82 ERA, 3.25 xERA, 3.92 SIERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.8 BB%, 28.3 K% and 30.2 CSW%. Gray has alternated between allowing zero and one run in his four turns and struck out at least five in his three most recent starts.
He would rank ahead of Montgomery if he had a less challenging matchup. Instead, the matchup makes Gray a desirable tournament option. The Bronx Bombers are 11th in wRC+ (105) against righties. However, they've punched out at a 24.8% clip against them. And the betting info is good. The Twins are -130, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. Gray has some risk tonight but harbors a ceiling worth chasing in GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Angels have a sweet implied total in a plus matchup tonight. Ken Waldichuk has struggled mightily. First, he's sitting on a 7.65 ERA, 5.74 xERA and 5.53 xFIP while allowing 3.15 HR/9 this year. Second, he had a 4.93 ERA, 4.59 xERA and 4.26 xFIP last season. Waldichuk hasn't translated his minor-league success to the majors.
Waldichuk's lousy overall numbers don't hold a candle to his struggles against righties, though. The southpaw has coughed up a .379 OBP, .592 SLG and .413 wOBA to 198 righties. The Angels can also tee off on Oakland's pathetic bullpen. This season, Oakland's relievers have the highest ERA (6.99) and xFIP (6.35). Thus, it's a blow-up spot for the Angels.
- Home (American Family Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/MIL -160
The Brewers are 29th in wRC+ (65) against lefties this year. They've also had a 32.0 K% against them. Yeesh. Could their early-season struggles throw gamers off their scent in a tasty matchup? Maybe. Expanding upon the matchup, Matthew Boyd has a 4.50 ERA, 4.53 xERA and 5.40 xFIP in three starts this season.
The lefty has an ugly 14.3 BB% and 17.5 K% in 2023. Moreover, Boyd's 21.9 CSW% is the second-lowest mark this year among tonight's starters, and his 86 Stuff+ is the lowest. In addition, Detroit's bullpen has the ninth-highest ERA (4.54) this season. Therefore, tonight's matchup against the Tigers might be just what the doctor ordered for Milwaukee's offense.
- Mike Trout has had a .424 OBP, .254 ISO and 171 wRC+ against lefties since 2021. He's also an unstoppable force this year. In 91 plate appearances in 2023, he's hit five homers with a .440 OBP, .303 ISO and 198 wRC+.
- Hunter Renfroe is thriving in his first year on the Angels. He's smashed six homers and recorded a .351 OBP, .286 ISO and 151 wRC+ in 94 plate appearances. Additionally, Renfroe crushes lefties. In 366 plate appearances against them since 2021, he's had a .369 OBP, .245 ISO and 143 wRC+.
- Brandon Drury's a cheap power source tonight. He's roughed up southpaws for a .295 ISO and 140 wRC+ since 2021.
- William Contreras has excelled with the platoon advantage. In 169 plate appearances against them since 2021, Contreras has had a .408 OBP, .215 ISO and 159 wRC+.
- Brian Anderson drilled two homers yesterday, bringing his season total to five. He's also had a .364 OBP, .253 ISO and 138 wRC+ in 88 plate appearances for the Brewers this year.
- The Angels picked Zach Neto 13th overall in last year's MLB Amateur Draft, and he raked his way to The Show. The right-handed-hitting shortstop crushed lefties in his limited opportunities against them in professional baseball. According to Baseball-Reference, Neto had two homers and a .944 OPS in 38 plate appearances against lefties last year. He had two more homers and a 1.865 OPS in 14 plate appearances against southpaws this season.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Angels are easily the most exciting source of offense tonight. However, the Brewers are a worthy option in tournaments and have a few hitters good in all game types tonight. The Royals nearly got the nod over the Brewers as the second featured stack. Thus, gamers entering many lineups in GPPs tonight can add Kanas City stacks to their portfolio.
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Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
