It’s a small MLB DFS slate starting at a unique time tonight. First, the slate has only five games. Second, it begins at 6:35 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. So, there are three suggested pitchers, one touted stack, core studs and values/punts in today’s primer.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitchers are shaky tonight. Even the top hurlers have many blemishes. The top-ranked hurler has pitched relatively well this year, transitioning from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball. Thankfully, even though the next two hurlers on the table have warts, they have affordable salaries to offset them.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Kodai Senga (NYM) at SF
Senga's statistical profile through three starts this year is a mixed bag. According to FanGraphs, the 30-year-old righty has a 3.38 ERA, 4.58 xERA, 3.64 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, 14.3 BB%, 30.0 K% and 31.5 CSW%.
Senga's strikeout ability is DFS-friendly, but his control -- or lack thereof -- is alarming. Sadly, he wasn't allowed to complete five innings in New York's blowout win in his previous turn, preventing him from qualifying for a win.
The betting info is good for him tonight, though. According to Betting Pros, the Mets are -135. And while San Francisco is second in wRC+ (128) against righties this season, they've struck out at an exploitable 26.8% rate. Finally, Senga will likely be chalky tonight since the pitching stinks. Eating the chalk in cash games is reasonable.
Matt Strahm (PHI) vs. COL
Strahm is a pleasant surprise for the Phillies this year. The veteran lefty failed as a starter earlier in his career and spent most of his time in The Show in the bullpen. Strahm is in Philadelphia's rotation and pitching well in the early going. Although, he's coming off his worst start and exited the turn with a cut on his thumb. The cut adds to the risk of using Strahm tonight.
Nonetheless, Strahm's 2.13 ERA, 3.15 xERA, 3.70 xFIP, 0.95 WHIP, 32.0 K% and 30.0 CSW% in four appearances (three starts) that spanned 12.2 innings are sterling marks. The matchup is mouthwatering, too.
The Rockies are 26th in wRC+ (75) and have struck out in 24.9% of their plate appearances against lefties this season. After playing their previous series at home, they must also adjust to life away from Coors Field. So, Strahm can carve them up. Finally, the Phillies are -210. So, Strahm is the best SP2 in cash games at DK, a reasonable alternative to Senga in cash games at FD and a viable option in all game types at both outlets.
GPP Recommendation:
Roansy Contreras (PIT) vs. CIN
Contreras's 6.00 ERA, 5.13 xERA and 5.21 xFIP in three starts this year are ugly. Unfortunately, the righty's velocity and swinging-strike rate are down this season. Still, Contreras has two good starts in three turns and averaged over 94.0 mph in those turns.
The righty's last start was his first quality start of the year and could allow him to springboard to continued success. The matchup is good for Contreras tonight, too. The Reds are 20th in wRC+ (93) and have a 24.6 K% against righties this year. And, finally, the Pirates are -157. On a slate of risky pitchers, there are enough positives to support using Contreras in GPPs tonight.
Top Lineup Stacks
The game's total of 10.5 runs suggests the early indication is that the wind won't be blowing in at Wrigley Field. And the scoring can get crazy if the wind is blowing out today. Unfortunately, gamers need to keep an eye on the forecast for rain and the likelihood of it impacting the ability to get tonight's game in.
Weather aside, the matchup is good for the Cubs. Michael Grove has been battered for a 9.00 ERA this year, struggling mightily to strand baserunners when they reach, evidenced by his 40.8 LOB%. Grove has had miserable strand rates throughout his career. So, gamers shouldn't assume he'll regress to the MLB average. Instead, it appears to be a legitimate shortcoming.
Further, Grove's 9.6 SwStr% this year and 9.9 SwStr% in his career are below-average marks. The Cubs don't have a star-studded lineup. Still, they have the talent to punish Grove.
- Ian Happ is the most exciting option from the Cubs. Since 2021, he's had a .343 OBP, .206 ISO and 121 wRC+ against righties. He's kicked it up to another level this year, amassing a .481 OBP, .273 ISO and 201 wRC+ in 54 plate appearances against righties.
- Freddie Freeman is a boss against righties. Since 2021, the left-handed-hitting first baseman has had a .418 OBP, .199 ISO and 155 wRC+.
- James Outman has had a .391 OBP, .298 ISO and 171 wRC+ in his first 64 plate appearances against righties in the majors. He's also swiped two bases in 18 games this year after stealing 13 in 125 in the minors last year.
- The Cubs might have fixed Cody Bellinger. He has a .396 OBP, .186 ISO, 149 wRC+, 8.3 BB% and 14.6 K% in 48 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this year.
- While the Cubs might have fixed Bellinger, the Dodgers might have unlocked something with Jason Heyward. According to Baseball Savant, Heyward has an average exit velocity of 96.0 mph and an average FB/LD exit velocity of 99.5 mph. The latter is the 31st-best mark among all players who've put at least one ball in play.
- Fernando Tatis is the highest-salaried hitter at FD and has the minimum salary at DK. The latter has apparently fallen asleep at the wheel and forgotten to elevate his salary before his reinstatement tonight from his suspension. Tatis was tearing the cover off the ball in Triple-A and can hit the ground running. He's a no-brainer bingo square in cash games at DK.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Cubs and Dodgers have the highest total on tonight's slate. As a result, they're the two best sources of offense.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
