Mother Nature might wash out a few games tonight. Fortunately, the MLB slate is stacked, leaving plenty of MLB pick ’em options at Underdog Fantasy. When sifting through the listed options, a few pitcher strikeout props stood out as excellent selections. Yet, two hitters have fun props, too.
Get 100% Deposit Match up to $100 at Underdog 
Friday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Alek Manoah: 5.5 Strikeouts – Lower
The Mariners have a strikeout-prone lineup. According to FanGraphs, Seattle has the 13th-highest strikeout rate (24.4 K%) against right-handed pitchers this year. They’ve also had the third-highest strikeout rate (26.8 K%) in the previous 14 days.
However, Manoah might not be the guy to exploit their strikeout problem. He’s struck out three, five, three, five and five in five starts this year. Manoah’s also been chased in fewer than 5.0 innings three times. In five starts in 2023, Manoah has a 5.13 ERA, 6.99 xERA, 5.78 xFIP, 7.18 K/9, 17.4 K% and 26.0 CSW%. Additionally, Manoah’s 9.9 SwStr% this year is markedly lower than his career mark (11.6 SwStr%). So, it’s inviting to bet Manoah goes under 5.5 strikeouts for the sixth time this year tonight.
Shane Bieber: 5.0 Strikeouts – Lower
Bieber hasn’t been the frontline starter this season he’s traditionally been. One notable difference for Bieber is a lack of punchouts. He’s struck out three, seven, four, four and four in five turns.
This year, Bieber’s 6.46 K/9, 17.6 K%, 10.7 SwStr% and 27.5 CSW% are career-low marks. Furthermore, his 90.9 mph average velocity on his heater is down 0.4 mph from last year, continuing a trend of him losing zip on his fastball.
The matchup and park factors aren’t ideal for Bieber’s strikeout potential tonight, either. The Red Sox have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate (19.8 K%) against righties this year. They’ve also had a 20.5 K% in the last 14 days. Finally, Fenway Park is a hitter-friendly venue, sporting the third-highest park factor for runs (1.210). So, Bieber will have difficulty striking out more than 5.0 batters if he completes a standard start and risks getting chased early in a hitter-friendly park.
Nick Pivetta: 5.0 Strikeouts – Lower
When glancing at his box score, the over looks like the right side of Pivetta’s strikeout prop. He’s struck out six, six, four and seven in four starts this season. However, the matchup is brutal.
The Guardians have the lowest strikeout rate (18.6 K%) against right-handed pitchers this year. In addition, their 10.6 BB% is the fourth-highest mark. So, they can run up Pivetta’s pitch count while avoiding strikeouts, and Pivetta might oblige.
The veteran righty has thrown 87, 83, 99 and 100 pitches while failing to complete 6.0 innings in any of his starts this year. Pivetta doesn’t pitch deep into games, making it challenging to exceed 5.0 strikeouts against Cleveland’s strikeout-averse lineup. And Pivetta has struggled at home for the Red Sox, making him a candidate to get knocked out early. He’s had a 5.40 ERA, 4.80 ERA, and 7.00 ERA in 2021, 2022 and 2023 when at home.
Evan Longoria: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
The conditions are perfect for Longoria to tear the cover off the baseball tonight. First, he’s at Coors Field. Right-handed batters have park factors of 1.169 for singles, 1.395 for doubles, 1.535 for triples and 1.301 for homers at Coors Field.
Second, he’s facing Kyle Freeland. The veteran lefty has coughed up a .286 batting average and .495 slugging to righties in his career and yielded higher than a .510 slugging to them since 2021.
Conversely, Longo crushes lefties. In 238 plate appearances against southpaws since 2021, he’s had a .300 batting average, .531 slugging, .232 ISO, nine doubles and 13 homers. Finally, Longoria has had absurd batted-ball data against Freeland. In 39 plate appearances against Freeland, Longo’s had six singles, two doubles, one triple, two homers, a .333 xBA, .731 xSLG, 93.7 mph exit velocity and 18.1-degree launch angle.
Brent Rooker: 8.0 Fantasy Points – Higher
Rooker looked like a classic Quad-A hitter entering this year. He crushed the ball in Triple-A but couldn’t translate that success to the majors. The light has gone on this season.
In 72 plate appearances, he’s had a 16.7 BB%, 18.1 K%, seven homers, a .417 OBP, .390 ISO, 205 wRC+. 21.3 Barrel%, 48.9 HardHit%, .647 xSLG and .453 xwOBA. Even when including his less flattering seasons in the majors, Rooker’s amassed a .314 OBP, .251 ISO and 118 wRC+ against righties in 207 plate appearances in his career.
Rooker should be licking his chops in anticipation of tonight’s matchup. Luis Cessa has a 10.80 ERA, 10.04 xERA, 5.83 xFIP, a 0.88 K/BB, 2.34 WHIP and allowed 1.62 HR/9 in four starts in 2023. Cessa is also lousy against righties. He’s yielded a .342 OBP, .490 SLG and .359 wOBA to them since last season. As a result, Rooker’s over for 8.0 points is an alluring pick.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
