Today is chock full of baseball. Unfortunately, it means there aren’t uniform main slates at DraftKings and FanDuel. Instead, DK has a nine-game MLB DFS main slate starting at 12:35 pm ET. They also have a secondary four-game night slate, beginning at 7:20 pm ET. Meanwhile, FD has a six-game main slate starting at 6:35 pm ET. So, today’s MLB DFS primer looks at the games at night because of some overlap between included contests.
Today is chock full of baseball. Unfortunately, it means there aren’t uniform main slates at DraftKings and FanDuel. Instead, DK has a nine-game MLB DFS main slate starting at 12:35 pm ET. They also have a secondary four-game night slate, beginning at 7:20 pm ET. Meanwhile, FD has a six-game main slate starting at 6:35 pm ET. So, today’s MLB DFS primer looks at the games at night because of some overlap between included contests.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Sadly, the top-ranked pitcher on the table isn't part of DK's slate. So, he's the suggested option only at FD, leaving the second and third pitchers on the table as the best pairing at DK.
Starting Pitcher Recommendations:
Justin Verlander (NYM) at CIN
Verlander wasn't flawless in his debut last week. Still, per FanGraphs, he had a 125 Stuff+, 109 Location+ and 110 Pitching+. So, his pitch modeling was outstanding. Additionally, Verlander's start was decent. He allowed only two runs on five hits (two homers), one walk and five strikeouts in 5.0 innings.
Verlander has an ideal matchup for a better second start in his 2023 campaign. The Reds are tied for 23rd in wRC+ (86) and have a 24.1 K% against righties this season. And according to Betting Pros, the Mets are -165. However, since Great American Ball Park is a hitter-friendly venue and the game's total is 9.0 runs, Verlander is slightly risky.
Pablo Lopez (MIN) vs. SD
Lopez isn't a bad fallback option to Verlander at DK. He's also an exciting pivot for gamers entering multiple lineups in contests at FD. The 27-year-old righty is shining for the Twins. He has a 3.77 ERA, 3.33 xERA, 3.36 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, 5.7 BB%, 30.7 K% and 29.3 CSW% in seven starts this season, totaling 43.0 innings.
Lopez has pitched at least 6.0 innings five times in seven starts. He's also struck out at least six batters in all of his turns and punched out at least eight four times. The Padres offer him punchout potential tonight, sporting a 25.6 K% against righties this year. And the Twins are -125, with a game total of 8.5 runs. So, the betting info is decent.
Lance Lynn (CWS) at KC
Lynn is the riskiest suggested pitcher tonight. Nevertheless, the non-included pitchers have less desirable statistical profiles. Sure, Lynn's 6.86 ERA and 5.12 xERA this year are unsightly. The veteran righty's 3.64 xFIP, 28.6 K% and 29.4 CSW% are encouraging for improvement on the horizon, though.
Furthermore, the Royals are a good matchup. Kansas City is tied for 27th in wRC+ (78) against righties this year, punching out at an exploitable 24.6% clip. Finally, the betting info is a mixed bag. The White Sox are -135. Yet, the game's total of 9.5 runs is scary.
Top Lineup Stacks
Seth Lugo is outproducing his underlying stats this year. The veteran righty's 3.21 ERA is markedly lower than his 4.42 xERA, 3.76 xFIP and 3.92 SIERA. And his 21.7 K% and 7.6 SwStr% are unimposing marks. The Twins are slightly below average against righties this year. So, stacking them isn't without risk. Still, their .199 ISO against right-handed pitchers is the fifth-highest mark. So, a matchup against Lugo's low swinging-strike rate might be what the doctor ordered for a blow-up performance.
- Since 2021, Paul Goldschmidt's had a .455 OBP, .336 ISO and 219 wRC+ against lefties. He's also having an excellent year at the dish this season.
- Byron Buxton's .315 ISO against righties since 2021 and .309 ISO against them this year are eye-catching and the draws for using him tonight.
- Joey Gallo's power is enticing in a matchup against a pitcher who struggles to avoid contact. He's muscled up for a .373 ISO against righties in a rebound campaign.
- Alex Kirilloff is getting another crack at the majors after proving all he can at the Triple-A level. Per Baseball-Reference, Kirilloff has had a 1.122 OPS and 15 homers in 209 plate appearances in Triple-A.
- Christopher Morel has a DFS-friendly combo of power and speed. He has 17 homers and 10 stolen bases in 429 plate appearances in The Show. He also smashed 11 homers and stole four bases in 134 plate appearances in Triple-A to start the year before mashing a tater in his season debut for the Cubs last night.
- Bobby Dalbec might start if Jared Shuster gets the nod for the Braves, making him a fun punt, especially at DK. In his big-league career, Dalbec has had 19 homers, a .338 OBP, .250 ISO, and 129 wRC+ in 337 plate appearances against lefties.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Twins are the most exciting stack on tonight's small slate. However, only partially stacking them and using one-offs, such as Goldschmidt, Morel and Dalbec, is appealing.
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Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
