Except for a handful of elite players at each position, dynasty values can drastically change on a year-to-year basis. An intriguing dynasty asset one season can lose significant value in just one year due to Free Agency, trades and the NFL Draft.

Talent is usually the most significant factor in scoring fantasy points, but situations can make or break even the most talented prospects.

With that in mind, here are four second-year players ready to regress:

• Second-Year Breakout Candidates
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• Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
• Dynasty Rookie Draft Sleepers: QB | RB | TE
• Latest Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

Second-Year Players Ready to Regress (2023 Fantasy Football)

Here are second-year players in line for regression.

Kenneth Walker III ( RB – SEA)

This one hurts to write. Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III was one of my favorite running back prospects in the 2022 NFL Draft, and he didn’t disappoint during his rookie season. Despite sharing the workload with Rashaad Penny early in the season, Walker III finished with 1,050 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground.

Walker III received a significant boost in carries as the season progressed, and he finished the regular season with 26, 23 and 29 carries in Seattle’s final three regular-season contests. This led to many dynasty analysts slotting Walker III into their top five (or higher) dynasty running backs.

Then came the 2023 NFL Draft. Not only did running backs Bijan Robinson (No. 8 overall) and Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12 overall) rise above Walker III in most dynasty rankings, but the Seahawks taking the consensus RB3 Zach Charbonnet in round two certainly complicated things. The dream of Walker III receiving a workhorse role is likely dead in less than a year.

Skyy Moore (WR – KC)

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Skyy Moore is another second-year prospect that’s difficult to feel good about. Moore finished his rookie campaign with only 22 receptions, 250 yards and no touchdowns.

While it’ll be difficult to regress from such lowly numbers, it’s also hard to imagine a significant leap in production in year two. For perspective, seven Kansas City Chiefs (Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jerick McKinnon, Justin Watson, Noah Gray and Mecole Hardman) finished with more receiving yards than Moore last season.

Smith-Schuster and Hardman both left Kansas City this offseason, but that list doesn’t even mention presumed No. 1 WR Kadarius Toney (acquired at the trade deadline last season) or 2023 second-round draft pick Rashee Rice. It’s an ugly scene for Moore truthers.

Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL)

This is another painful one. You felt really good about rostering Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier a couple of months ago. Think about it. Due to Allgeier being drafted in the fifth round in 2022, you likely drafted him in the second or third round of your rookie drafts. Then you watched him rush for over 1,000 yards in just his rookie season. You thought you struck fantasy gold.

Unfortunately, the 2023 NFL Draft couldn’t have gone any worse for you. Enter generational running back prospect Bijan Robinson, the one rookie that could make Allgeier irrelevant landed in Atlanta.

Allgeier should still have a role as a backup to Robinson and potentially as a goal-line back, but there’s no route to fantasy success without a significant injury. Even if Atlanta occasionally lines up Robinson in the slot so they can both get on the field, the volume will be unpredictable for Allgeier this season and beyond. If you draft a running back in the top 10, you will use them every chance you get.

David Bell (WR – CLE)

Cleveland Browns wide receiver David Bell is another prospect that was significantly impacted by the NFL offseason. After being selected in the third round in 2022, expectations were high that Bell could be the WR2 that Cleveland has long been searching for.

Bell never quite lived up to that hype in year one (24 receptions, 214 receiving yards and no TDs) as he fell way behind Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones in the wide receiver pecking order. Cooper (132 targets) and Peoples-Jones (96 targets) soaked up the majority of the work, while Bell (35 targets) was left to compete with TE2 Harrison Bryant for looks.

I can’t imagine those numbers significantly increasing for Bell in year two. Not after the Browns added former Jets wide receiver Elijah Moore via trade and selected Tennessee wide receiver Cedric Tillman in round three of the 2023 NFL Draft. The story of Bell in Cleveland might have ended before it even began.

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