On a busy night of MLB action, pitchers rule the roost among the highlighted Underdog Fantasy pick ’em choices. Three of the following picks are from the bump. Yet, one hitter’s prop is enticing against an underwhelming righty who also can’t slow competent baserunners.

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Tuesday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks

Alek Manoah: 5.0 Strikeouts – Lower

Manoah hasn’t been sharp this season. According to FanGraphs, he has a 4.71 ERA, 6.72 xERA, 5.49 xFIP, 1.65 WHIP, 12.3 BB%, 7.68 K/9, 18.1 K% and 25.3 CSW%. In addition, Manoah’s swinging-strike percentage has continued its decline. He had a 12.6 SwStr% in 2021, 11.2 SwStr% in 2022 and 9.1 SwStr% this year. The league average is a 11.0 SwStr% in 2023.

Manoah’s inability to miss bats has impacted his strikeouts. In seven starts this year, he’s struck out three, five, three, five, five, seven and three batters. So, Manoah has had more than 5.0 strikeouts only once this year.

The Phillies aren’t a pushover matchup for him. Philadelphia is eighth in wRC+ (109) and has a 23.5 K% against righties this year. So, Manoah is unlikely to buck his trend of striking out 5.0 or fewer batters tonight.

Louie Varland: 4.5 Strikeouts – Higher

Varland’s issue in his second crack at the majors isn’t strikeouts. Instead, homers have undermined his numbers. The 25-year-old righty has 11.81 K/9, a 29.8 K%, 15.3 SwStr% and 35.3 CSW% in two starts spanning 10.2 innings this season.

Varland’s velocity has ticked up this year, jumping from an average of 93.9 mph in 2022 to 95.2 for his heater, 83.3 to 84.3 for his slider, 89.1 to 90.2 for his cutter and 83.8 to 84.4 for his changeup. The youngster’s stuff passes the sniff test by pitch modeling, too. Varland’s 109 Stuff+ is tied for 29th out of 172 starting pitchers who’ve tossed at least 10 innings this year. Moreover, all his pitches are average or better, featuring a 100 Stuff+ for his cutter, 111 for his fastball, 115 for his changeup and 116 for his slider.

He’s ridden his stuff to eight and six strikeouts in two starts for the Twins in 2023. Varland also had nine, eight and eight strikeouts in three starts in Triple-A this year. Finally, the Padres have had an exploitable 25.6 K% against righties this year. Therefore, I love Varland’s odds of striking out more than 4.5 batters tonight.

Lucas Giolito: 5.5 Strikeouts – Higher

Giolito is bouncing back from a forgettable 2022 campaign. In seven starts spanning 41.2 innings this season, he has a 3.67 ERA, 3.50 xERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.86 K/9, 23.6 K% and 27.0 CSW%. He’s struck out at least six batters five times this year, including four times in his last five starts.

The 28-year-old righty has also enjoyed pitching on the road in recent years. In 198.0 innings on the road since 2021, Giolito has had a 3.77 ERA, 3.76 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP, 9.86 K/9 and 26.2 K%.

Sadly, the matchup isn’t perfect tonight. Yet, it should still be good. The Royals are tied for fifth in wRC+ (122) over the previous 14 days, with only a 20.8 K%. However, Kansas City is tied for 27th in wRC+ (78) and has a 24.6 K% against righties this year. As a result, Giolito’s over for 5.5 strikeouts is alluring.

Christian Yelich: 8.0 Fantasy Points – Higher

Yelich sits atop Milwaukee’s order in a plus matchup against a struggling righty tonight. Noah Syndergaard is a dumpster fire this year. He has a 6.32 ERA, 4.67 xERA and 4.65 xFIP in six starts, totaling 31.1 innings.

There’s more to love for Yelich’s outlook in Syndergaard’s putrid stat line. The veteran righty has yielded 1.44 HR/9 and allowed nine stolen bases this season. And left-handed batters have teed off on Syndergaard for a .349 OBP, .538 SLG and .378 wOBA this year.

Yelich’s 92 wRC+ this year leaves much to be desired. However, he’s popped four homers and stolen seven bases. Furthermore, Yelich’s .351 xwOBA is markedly higher than his .309 wOBA.

Finally, the betting info is good for Milwaukee’s leadoff hitter. According to Betting Pros, the Brewers are EVEN, and the game’s total is 9.5 runs.

Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.