The 2021 draft class produced four receivers – Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, and Amon-Ra St. Brown – with current ADPs in the top 20 overall picks. All four receivers all likely top-12 at the position in 2023 and finished within the top-15 in PPR average points per game in 2022.

The class also includes players like Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman, and Elijah Moore, who are all looking to make year-three jumps after struggles with health and internal issues with teams. Toney remains the front-runner for the Chiefs’ WR1 and showed improvement in both performance and attitude after his midseason trade. Bateman’s injury issues have hindered his breakout, but he’s shown significant upside when healthy. Moore is set for a promising role with the Browns on an offense that will increase pass volume in 2023.

It’s easy to see the potential leap Toney, Bateman, and Moore could make in year three. But what other third-year receivers could see increased production and be late-round value picks in 2023?

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2023 Third Year WRs

Nico Collins (HOU)

The Texans receiving corps could be one of the more underrated groups in the NFL. While it’s highly unlikely that any of the receivers have WR1 potential, one receiver could emerge as a low-end WR2 or WR3. C.J. Stroud’s receiving corps consists of Nico Collins, John Metchie, Robert Woods, and Tank Dell. While Woods has the most success and experience, he’s seen a decline in production over the past several years, and at 31 years old, he likely won’t lead the receiving corps. Collins is the most likely candidate to assume the lead role and showed some promise in 2022 when healthy. Collins had a small string of games from Weeks 10 through 13, where he averaged nine targets per game with two total touchdowns, operating as the Texans’ WR1. The sample size is slim, but he’s one of the more promising options outside the top 100.

Rondale Moore (ARI)

The Cardinals released DeAndre Hopkins, and while it’s not ideal drafting receivers in a full rebuild with a quarterback coming off an ACL injury, Rondale Moore is a potential WR2 being drafted in the late rounds of most drafts. Moore struggled with injuries in 2022 but played Weeks 4 through 10 and was the WR17 over that period, averaging 12.6 points per game in PPR. Moore is a risky pick because of unknowns around the new offense scheme and how the scheme will incorporate his skillset. But as a late-round dart throw, he offers strong upside in PPR.

Terrace Marshall (CAR)

The Panthers offense will look wildly different from its 2022 form with the trades of Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore and new first-overall draft pick Bryce Young at the helm. The Panthers depth chart will likely be in flux over the next two months, but Marshall will be in the mix with Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and Jonathan Mingo. The former second-round draft pick struggled to make an impact in his rookie season and struggled with consistency in 2022. But Marshall saw an increase in snap counts and had a couple of promising games. With an ADP over 200, Marshall is a player to watch during training camp to see if he could emerge with a more prominent role.

Josh Palmer (LAC)

Josh Palmer had several strong performances, stepping in as the WR1 for the Chargers in several games last year with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams struggling through injuries. Chargers’ first-round rookie receiver Quinton Johnston should leapfrog Palmer, leaving Palmer a bit buried in the depth chart. But it’s still possible for Palmer to provide value in 2023. It’s tough to ignore the possibility of age regression with Allen entering the 2023 season at 31 years old, and Williams has struggled with injuries and consistency issues throughout his entire career. While Johnston would be the biggest beneficiary if Allen or Williams miss any games, Palmer would still be a contributor of value in very deep leagues.

Dyami Brown (WAS)

Let me preface this by saying you should not draft Brown in the majority of leagues. But if you play in a large tournament, deep league, or you’re looking for a potential dynasty trade add-on, Brown is an intriguing candidate. Brown’s production at the NFL level has been minimal, and he hasn’t flashed any upside that indicates higher potential. But Brown had over 2,100 yards and 20 touchdowns over two seasons with Sam Howell at North Carolina. If Howell wins the starting job, their connection could help Brown increase production in 2023.

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