Believe it or not, it’s still rookie draft season for dynasty managers. Before we get to redraft season, many dynasty leagues are still wrapping up their rookie drafts.
Here’s one more rookie mock draft with some insights about who I’d take and why. I’ll draft using the FantasyPros Mock Draft Simulator from the eighth spot. For this mock draft, assume vanilla settings: 1QB and no tight end premium. Let’s get into it!
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Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft (2023 Fantasy Football)
First Round (1.08): Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA)
At the moment, almost every draft has started and will start with Bijan Robinson at the top. After that, things can get interesting. In this simulated mock draft, the top five picks go pretty much as expected. After Robinson, it went Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jordan Addison and Quentin Johnston. Pick No. 6 is really the first wildcard.
In a 1QB league, taking a QB in the first isn’t generally expected unless they’re an absolute stud, like Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence. Picking Anthony Richardson at 1.06 is a little crazy to me, not because he won’t be a stud, but because he still carries some risk. That said, this is definitely something that a lot of real rookie drafts could see happen as well. Zay Flowers drafted at 1.07 makes sense and puts me on the clock at 1.08 for my first pick.
I am staring at the board, hating the options in front of me. This is a clear tier break for me. Zach Charbonnet, Dalton Kincaid, Devon Achane or another QB – they all have warts. Ultimately, I want production from my first rounder, so I go with Charbonnet, but I don’t love it. There was a part of me that wanted to pick Kincaid instead, but I just can’t pull the trigger on a tight end in the first in a non-tight-end premium league. Charbonnet has the easiest path to achieving his value soonest, so he’s the best option for me here.
Second Round (2.08): Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI)
In the 12 picks between my Charbonnet pick and my 2.08 pick, two quarterbacks, two tight ends, three running backs and four receivers go off the board. Receivers I was hoping would fall like Josh Downs and Jalin Hyatt both go. Rushers Achane, Kendre Miller and Chris Rodriguez Jr. all get selected. The tight ends and quarterbacks all make sense and relieve me from worrying about them here, which I’m thankful for.
Looking at my choices, there are two clear options for me: WR Rashee Rice or RB Roschon Johnson. The simulator’s suggestions agree and have Johnson over Rice by 10%. There’s no way that either fall to me in the third, so I’m forced to pick between them now. Being that I preach the “draft for value, trade for need” mantra, Johnson has to be the pick. He joins a busy Chicago backfield, but we’ve seen running backs impress in the summer that end up being fantasy relevant down the stretch. So my RB-RB start is official.
Third Round: Michael Wilson (WR – ARI)
Another run of 11 players goes, and I’m focusing on whatever values come my way with these final two picks. No two drafts are alike, and I’m sure there will be some crazy picks in yours, as well. Once you get into the third, you throw out the positional need and just try to get lucky. The hit rate for third-round rookie picks in dynasty is low, but I’ll be darned if it’s not fun trying to find that needle in the haystack.
With that in mind, I see that the simulator wants me to take Michael Wilson, with 48% of experts agreeing. I like a few others here, but Wilson is the smash pick. He’s on a rebuilding team with a lot of concerns, but now they’re looking to replace veteran WR DeAndre Hopkins. Maybe that replacement is Wilson, and in the third round, you can’t hate taking the chance on that happening this late.
Fourth Round: DeWayne McBride (RB – MIN)
My final pick of the mock is 4.08, and regardless of how many QBs you start, it all starts to look the same in this range. The simulator says to take Tyler Scott over DeWayne McBride, but I’m not so sure. Scott was drafted by the Bears, a team that threw the ball so rarely that any WR could be in for an uphill climb to see my lineup. On the other hand, the Vikings just cut veteran RB Dalvin Cook, opening some carries for the taking.
McBride is what my gut tells me here, and being that it’s my last pick in the draft, I don’t mind going for the player with the higher upside in McBride. His path to relevancy won’t be easy, but I think it’s easier for a running back to get an opportunity to shine than for a receiver. At 4.08, McBride almost feels like a steal too, so I’m very happy with it.
Draft Board
Takeaways
I grabbed three running backs and a single receiver in this simulator draft, and I don’t hate it. If my team had earned that eighth pick, then it made the playoffs and might only be one or two pieces away from winning. Running backs are the easier plug-and-play option in fantasy, and I want to win now while my team is set up to contend. If I traded for the pick, I’m still happy as I think these players all have the most value for where they were drafted.
I still have a few months to get my lineups in order, and training camps haven’t even begun yet. Let’s see how these rookies turn out when the pads go on before we get too worried, right?
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Andrew Hall is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his profile and follow him @AndrewHallFF.
