I was shocked by that Game 2 result. We really thought Denver would take care of business at home, but Miami pulled out that shocking road victory. That’s evened up the series at 1-1, but we shouldn’t be shocked by anything that Miami does at this point. That victory makes this series look much more competitive, and the winner of this Game 3 will have a major leg-up going forward. With that in mind, let’s dive into this Wednesday slate!
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Schedule and Odds
DEN at MIA (DEN -1.5) O/U: 214.5
Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros
Injury Report
Core Plays
Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $15,200 DraftKings, $18,500 FanDuel
It’s honestly wild what Jokic is doing right now. The two-time MVP averaged over 60 DraftKings points per game during the regular season, but that’s below his floor in this absurd playoff run. The Joker has scored at least 69 DK points in 11 of his last 14 outings, averaging 32.6 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.4 assists per game in that span. It would be hard to duplicate those numbers in a video game, and it could be Jokic’s basein this critical Game 3.
I was shocked by that Game 2 result. We really thought Denver would take care of business at home, but Miami pulled out that shocking road victory. That’s evened up the series at 1-1, but we shouldn’t be shocked by anything that Miami does at this point. That victory makes this series look much more competitive, and the winner of this Game 3 will have a major leg-up going forward. With that in mind, let’s dive into this Wednesday slate!
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Schedule and Odds
DEN at MIA (DEN -1.5) O/U: 214.5
Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros
Injury Report
Core Plays
Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $15,200 DraftKings, $18,500 FanDuel
It’s honestly wild what Jokic is doing right now. The two-time MVP averaged over 60 DraftKings points per game during the regular season, but that’s below his floor in this absurd playoff run. The Joker has scored at least 69 DK points in 11 of his last 14 outings, averaging 32.6 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.4 assists per game in that span. It would be hard to duplicate those numbers in a video game, and it could be Jokic’s basein this critical Game 3.
Jimmy Butler (SF/PF- MIA): $12,000 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel
Butler hasn’t been the beast we saw early in the playoffs, but he’s still tough to avoid. The All-Star has scored at least 36 DraftKings points in 22 of his last 23 games, averaging over 50 fantasy points per game in this playoff run. That’s no surprise when looking at his postseason numbers, averaging 27.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.1 steals over the last two playoffs. JB is also averaging more shot attempts and more free throws at home in this postseason, taking on a more significant load in his home building.
Cash Game Considerations
Jamal Murray (PG/SG – DEN): $11,400 DraftKings, $14,500 FanDuel
Murray struggled a bit in Game 2, but a lousy game for Murray is still valuable. The postseason star has at least 43 DraftKings points in 14 of his last 17 games, generating a 48-point average in that span. That’s what we’ve seen throughout Murray’s postseason career, averaging 26.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 6.6 assists, and 1.3 steals over the last two playoffs. It will be tough to squeeze in Butler and Jokic, but Murray is the best pairing with either of those guys if you want to fade the other.
Bam Adebayo (C – MIA): $9,000 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel
Bam has been the focal point of Miami’s offense in the first two games of this series, and it’s clear he loves this individual matchup with Jokic. The Joker is the best offensive player in the league, but he’s also one of the worst defensive centers. That’s on full display since Bam has at least 41 DK points in four of his last five matchups with Denver. That’s on par with his 40-point average during the regular season, making Adebayo the most affordable star on this slate.
GPP Targets
Aaron Gordon (SF/PF – DEN): $6,200 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
Gordon can be frustrating at times from a fantasy perspective, but he shouldn’t be this cheap. The defensive stud is locked into 40 minutes to guard Butler, scoring 27 DK points in the first two games of this series. That’s all you need from a player in this price range, and it could be his floor since we saw AG average 31 fantasy points per game during the regular season.
Max Strus (SG/SF – MIA): $4,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Strus struggled with his shot in Game 1 but bounced back with 30 DK points in Game 2. We’ve seen this sharpshooter post lines like that all season, averaging 21 fantasy points per game. As long as this guy gets 30-plus minutes and 10-15 shots, Strus should never be this cheap. In his last three games against Denver, Strus is averaging 27 DraftKings points per game. If you get that, Strus will be in the optimal lineup.
Value Plays
Gabe Vincent (PG/SG – MIA): $5,600 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Vincent has been Miami’s third-best player in this postseason run. He’s still being priced like the backup point guard, but he’s been starting for over a month now. That’s led to GV posting a 27-point average across 36 minutes a night in that span. We’ve also seen him score 33 DraftKings points in each of the first two games of this series, and he’s been in the captain slot of both optimal lineups so far in this series.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG/SF – DEN): $5,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
This is funny because KCP and Strus are essentially the same player. Both of these guys are out there for their three-point shooting and defense. Caldwell-Pope is the more reliable option, locked into a 35-minute role. Caldwell-Pope has played at least 34 minutes in six of his last seven outings, totaling a 25-point average in that span. That’s an amazing average from such an affordable player, and he’s one of the best pairings with overpriced studs like Jokic, Butler, and Murray.
Advantageous Pricing
Max Strus (SG/SF – MIA): $4,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Caleb Martin (SG/SF – MIA): $6,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG/SF – DEN): $5,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
