The NFL season is quickly approaching! There are many players who are going to fluctuate in value between now and the season starting.
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
ADP Player Values for the Middle Rounds (Fantasy Football 2023)
Round 5: J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)
2022 was a disappointing year for J.K. Dobbins, who struggled to get past his 2021 ACL, LCL and Meniscus injuries. However, there were signs of light down the stretch, with Dobbins leading the league in rushing yards between Weeks 14-17 with 397. He rushed for a rate of 7.0 yards per carry and also led the league in runs of 20 yards or more with seven. Dobbins has only averaged 11.2 touches per game so far in his career, but it’s fair to point out that circumstances have largely been against him. With new offensive coordinator Todd Monken being a fan of the screen game, it’s possible we see a different Dobbins in 2023.
Round 6: Marquise Brown (WR – ARI)
Kyler Murray‘s recovery from a torn ACL and Meniscus seems to be well on track, and even if he does miss some playing time Marquise Brown could be positioned well to benefit from DeAndre Hopkins‘s release from the Cardinals. Brown showed versatility at times last year, being deployed near the line of scrimmage in Kliff Kingsbury’s horizontal air raid attack. While Brown may struggle against elite cornerbacks, he could see a 30% target share on a team with a terrible defense, forcing the offense into pass-heavy scripts. That seems like a good thing for fantasy football.
Round 7: David Montgomery (RB – DET)
It seemed likely that Jamaal Williams would stay with a Lions team that truly loved him on and off the field after he rushed for over 1,000 rushing yards and accrued 17 touchdowns last year. However, free agency often throws up surprises, and now Williams is in New Orleans, and David Montgomery has made his way from Chicago to Detroit. Montgomery seems like the perfect replacement for a between-the-20s runner who can pick up the yardage the Lions’ excellent offensive line allows. Montgomery could potentially be the back who takes the majority of the 34 inside the five looks that Williams got, which was 15 more than any other player.
Round 8: Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)
The Commanders create so many headlines off the field that it went rather unheralded how good a rookie season Jahan Dotson had in 2022, finishing with six performances of 16 or more PPR points. There are question marks at quarterback, but with Jacoby Brissett waiting in the wings, Dotson feels like a fun bet to make for 2023.
Round 9: Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)
Anthony Richardson will likely be on the field early and often this year, and for fantasy, he can be a Week 1 starter. In Richardson’s final year with the Florida Gators, he averaged 8.5 rush attempts per game, which would have put him behind only Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson last season. Since the start of the 2000 season, there have been 104 instances of a quarterback rushing for an average of 5.0 attempts per game, and 44 (41.9%) of those players had an average point per game of 18 or higher. That is equivalent to QB11 in 2022, right about where Richardson is being drafted. 46.6% of quarterbacks who averaged 5.0 or more rush attempts had at least seven top-12 weekly performances per season, and those are the results we really want at QB.
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