We have a brand new season of fantasy football peeking over the horizon for 2023. After a wild NFL offseason and draft cycle, the dust has settled, and we have a shifting NFL landscape that appears ripe for the picking for fantasy. The attack plan for fantasy titles starts with the early rounds of your drafts.
These early selections will build the backbone of your teams and influence how you approach the rest of your draft. Whether you love RB heavy, Zero RB, or somewhere in between, I’ve outlined my approach and targets for the middle rounds that can be tailored to fit any fantasy palate. Enjoy, and let’s have a banner year.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
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DBro’s Middle-Round Draft Strategy (2023 Fantasy Football)
*Unless otherwise specified, All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com.*
Derek Brown’s Middle-Round Draft Strategy & Top Targets
- Jerry Jeudy: Jerry Jeudy weathered the Russell Wilson stank better than Courtland Sutton in 2022. Sutton dealt with a hamstring strain down the stretch and a grossly ineffective Wilson when he decided to chuck it deep. Jeudy parlayed his 20.8% target share (35th) into a WR19 finish and a 16th ranking in yards per route run. Jeudy’s lower average depth of target (aDOT) (11.8, 40th) helped shield Jeudy from the atrocious Wilson deep ball. Jeudy was 11th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Jeudy is a talented player who still has untapped potential in the NFL. With Sean Payton in town, we could have been a year early touting this offense as a breakout unit. Jeudy is a borderline WR2/3.
- Darren Waller: Waller will likely be my highest-rostered tight end this year in all formats. The upside case for Waller is worth going overweight for because it isn’t being priced into his average draft position (ADP). Is injury risk present? Sure, but that fear is what is pushing him down draft boards. If you don’t want to follow me down this road, I get it, but if Waller stays healthy, he will be one of the best value picks of 2023. Waller’s talent hasn’t diminished, and his situation could create a perfect storm for him to rival Travis Kelce. Last year Waller was 13th in receiving grade, 12th in yards per route run, and first in yards per route run against man coverage (per PFF). The last time we saw Waller flanked by league-average wide receiver talent, he was first in targets (145), first in target share (28.7%), and the TE2 in fantasy points per game. Waller the baller returns in 2023.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Since Jaxon Smith-Njigba was announced as the Seahawks’ pick in the NFL Draft, worries have been circulating about Seattle’s usage of three wide receiver sets and his target share with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. These are valid concerns, but before I push back against them, let’s discuss Smith-Njigba as a talent. In 2021 he was first in yards per route run and first in PFF receiving grade (minimum 50 targets per PFF) while drawing a 22.7% target share alongside Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Smith-Njigba gets typecast as a low aDOT player, but he has also shown the ability to win downfield. In 2021 he was ninth in yards per route run and tied for first in PFF’s deep receiving grade (minimum 15 deep targets per PFF). Smith-Njigba is an elite-level prospect. With that said, I have a hard time believing the Seahawks burnt a first-round pick on a player they don’t plan to feature, so I believe they will run a ton of 11 personnel in 2023. Regarding the subject of target share, Smith-Njigba can put those concerns to rest quickly and hit the ground running as the second option in this passing attack. While I don’t want to take anything away from Tyler Lockett, he hasn’t been a high-end target earner. Over the last four seasons, he’s never ranked higher than 36th in target per route run rate. The addition of Smith-Njigba can allow Lockett to return to stretching the field. Since 2019 he’s ranked top-12 in deep targets twice. Last year he logged the second-lowest aDOT of his career and the lowest YAC per reception mark. Smith-Njigba should garner targets early and often in 2023. Draft him and enjoy.
- Tua Tagovailoa: I know this is a BIG if, but if Tagovailoa can stay upright this year, the Dolphins will be one of the best offenses in the NFL. In the games in which he played at least 70% of the snaps, Miami was fifth in pass rate over expected, fourth in EPA per play, and fifth in points per game. If that comes to fruition, Tagovailoa will be a QB1.
Last year Tagovailoa was the QB9 in fantasy points per game while sitting near the top in almost every passing efficiency metric. He was first in deep ball completion rate, eighth in fantasy points per dropback, and third in QBR. Tagovailoa’s injury risk is included in his depressed ADP, but if he stays healthy, the upside isn’t. - Jahan Dotson: Dotson’s overall rookie season numbers don’t jump off the page. He was the WR38 in fantasy with a 15.9% target share (56th), a 24% air yard share, and 1.50 yards per route run (50th). All of these figures paint an inaccurate picture of his true upside. After he returned from injury, the season’s final five games offered a clearer view of what a breakout sophomore season for Dotson could look like. In Weeks 13-18 of last season, Dotson ranked 20th in target share (24%), third in end zone target share (50%), 17th in weighted opportunity, and 13th in yards per route run. Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett at the helm in 2023 doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, but Dotson is a skilled wide receiver well-versed from his college days in dealing with pitiful quarterback play. Dotson is a WR4/5 that could take a huge leap in his second season. I won’t rule out him giving Terry McLaurin a run for his money for the team lead in targets this season. Investing in talented second-year wide receivers are strong bets to make.
- Courtland Sutton: Courtland Sutton is coming off a disappointing season, but when we peer at deeper efficiency metrics, it’s easy to see the problem wasn’t him. Sutton dipped to 50th in yards per route run and 65th in fantasy points per route run, while he saw a 23.1% target share (25th). This paints the picture that the blame rests upon Sutton’s shoulders until we also see that he was 16th in total route wins and 12th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Only 72.5% (71st) of his targets were catchable, and he ranked 42nd in target quality rating. With a new head wizard in Sean Payton directing this passing attack, there are reasons to buy in on a big Sutton bounceback in 2023. Sutton was 11th in deep targets and 22nd in red zone targets last year. Sutton is an upside WR3.
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