Projections and rankings are valuable resources to utilize throughout the NFL offseason, especially as fantasy managers are preparing for their upcoming drafts. But those projections and rankings aren’t 100% accurate. Otherwise, fantasy football would be easy. The data shows that some players are overrated, and some are underrated. Identifying these players can be the difference between winning your league and missing the playoffs altogether, especially if you have that knowledge prior to your draft and can use it to your advantage.
Our analysts combed through the NFL rosters and identified the most overrated player on every team. The results and accompanying justifications are below.
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Most Overrated Player on Each NFC South Team
NFC South
| TEAM | ANDREW | DEREK | PAT | JOE |
| Atlanta Falcons | Kyle Pitts | Kyle Pitts | Kyle Pitts | Cordarralle Patterson |
| Carolina Panthers | Adam Thielen | Adam Thielen | Miles Sanders | Adam Thielen |
| New Orleans Saints | Michael Thomas | Juwan Johnson | Michael Thomas | Michael Thomas |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Mike Evans | Mike Evans | Mike Evans | Mike Evans |
Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts
I don’t think it’s possible to view Kyle Pitts as anything but overrated as he enters his 3rd NFL season. He’s drastically underperformed for two straight seasons after coming out with extremely high expectations that many young players could never reach. The QB situation in Atlanta has hurt him dramatically, but we cannot keep coming up for excuses for Pitts. He has target competition with second-year stud Drake London, and could easily take a backseat to a ground game led by Bijan Robinson. I don’t think Pitts is an overrated talent, but his fantasy value as TE5 has fantasy drafters grimacing as the push the draft button, knowing he’s destined for split usage with Jonnu Smith/Parker Hesse (woof) in a Desmond Ridder-led offense. – Erickson
Carolina Panthers – Adam Thielen
Stick a fork in him. He’s done. Last year Thielen ranked 52nd in open score (per ESPN analytics). He fell outside the top 60 receivers in yards per route run, and yards per team pass attempt. Avoid aged wide receiver landmines. – DBro
New Orleans Saints – Michael Thomas
Despite a strong performance in his three healthy games in 2022, it’s difficult to overlook the concerns surrounding Michael Thomas in fantasy football. In those games, he recorded 16 catches for 171 yards and 3 touchdowns, demonstrating his ability to make an impact when on the field. However, the bigger issue lies in Thomas’ availability. Over the past three seasons, he has played in just 10 games, making it difficult for fantasy managers to rely on him consistently. Additionally, at 30 years old, Thomas is reaching a point in his career where durability becomes even more of a concern. Another worrisome factor is his career-low yards per route run in 2022, which stood at 1.64. While Thomas has shown flashes of greatness, his recent injury history and declining production raise doubts about his ability to deliver consistent fantasy production going forward. – Erickson
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mike Evans
It pains me to pin the “overrated” label on Evans, who might eventually have a bust in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but he’s a dicey fantasy investment this year. After catching passes from either Jameis Winston (who was never afraid to make a risky throw to Evans) or Tom Brady for most of his career, Evans will spend the 2023 season trying to catch passes from either Baker Mayfield or possibly Kyle Trask. D.J. Moore‘s prediction withered in Carolina last season when he was paired with Mayfield, only to perk up against when the Panthers dumped Mayfield and reinserted Sam Darnold at quarterback. Evans himself endured an 11-game touchdown drought last season, the longest of his career. Even after he ended the drought with a three-TD game in Week 17, Evans finished the season with six touchdowns, third-fewest of his career. Evans has been one of the most reliable fantasy assets in the game for a long time, but he’s an easy fade for 2023. – Fitzmaurice
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