Tonight is a great night to scan the Underdog Fantasy MLB pick ’em lobby and enter some picks. This piece narrows the focus to five enticing picks, including one payout booster selection.
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Friday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Framber Valdez: 0.5 Home Runs Allowed (Payout booster) – Lower
The Underdog Fantasy MLB pick ’em lobby has some payout booster options, listing a handful of pitchers with a prop of 0.5 home runs allowed. Valdez is the most exciting option of the bunch. The ground-ball specialist has allowed only nine homers in 18 starts, avoiding homers in 11 of 18 starts.
The matchup and park factors are also good. According to FanGraphs, the A’s have hit only 29 homers in 998 plate appearances against lefties this season. Moreover, Oakland has hit just 42 homers in 1,878 plate appearances at home this year. Finally, the Oakland Coliseum has the second-lowest park factor for homers (0.752).
Braxton Garrett: 6.0 Strikeouts – Higher
Garrett is a strikeout whiz, and the Rockies have a strikeout-prone lineup. So, it’s a match made in heaven for Garrett to strike out more than six batters. First, Garrett has struck out at least six batters in 10 of 18 starts and has exceeded that mark seven times. Second, he has a 26.7 K% at home this year and a 27.1 K% at home in his career.
Meanwhile, the Rockies have a 26.2 K% against lefties and a 26.2 K% on the road this season. As a result, Garrett shouldn’t have difficulty striking out more than six batters tonight.
Michael Conforto: 7.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Conforto loves hitting with the platoon advantage on the road. In 140 plate appearances against righties on the road, he’s had eight homers, a .386 OBP, .239 ISO and 146 wRC+.
On the flip side, Jake Irvin struggles with left-handed batters. The 147 lefties who’ve faced Irvin this year have six homers, a .354 OBP, .470 SLG and .357 wOBA. Conforto also has an avenue to backdoor more than 7.5 fantasy points if he struggles against Irvin since Washington’s relievers have the second-highest ERA (5.54) this year.
Masataka Yoshida: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Yoshida has made a seamless transition from NPB to MLB. The left-handed-hitting outfielder has 17 doubles, two triples, eight homers and a .322 batting average in 259 plate appearances against righties. He’s also aggressive and avoids strikeouts, posting a 6.2 BB% and 10.4 K% against righties.
The park factors also enhance Yoshida’s chance to have over 1.5 total bases tonight. Left-handed batters have park factors of 1.068 for singles, 1.397 for doubles, 2.206 for triples and 0.930 for homers at Fenway Park.
Tommy Henry: 2.5 Earned Runs – Higher
Henry has a 3.89 ERA in 15 appearances (14 starts) spanning 78.2 innings. However, the lefty’s 4.14 xERA and 5.27 xFIP are more indicative of his pitching ability. He’s also struggled mightily on the road. In 36.2 innings on the road this year, Henry has had a 4.91 ERA and 5.06 xFIP. And in 62.2 innings on the road since reaching The Show last year, he’s had a 4.88 ERA and 5.24 xFIP. Furthermore, he’s allowed over 2.5 earned runs in seven of 12 starts on the road in his career.
The park factors won’t help Henry tonight. Great American Ball Park has the second-highest park factor for runs (1.221) and the highest for homers (1.518).
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.