Fantasy Football Draft Busts to Avoid: Breece Hall & Dalton Kincaid (2023)

Thankfully the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.

In the first part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC East. And here’s a closer look at two busts to avoid.

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Fantasy Football Busts: AFC East

ADP via FantasyPros

Breece Hall (NYJ): ADP 24.3 | RB10

Earlier this offseason, Hall had a top-five ADP among running backs. Thankfully, his draft price has rightfully slipped over the past several weeks. However, he is still not worthy of his RB10 draft position. Last year the former Iowa State star was near unstoppable. Hall was the RB6, averaging 15.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game before the season-ending knee injury. Furthermore, he averaged 5.8 yards per rushing attempt and 4.13 yards after contact per attempt as a rookie.

Unfortunately, the second-year star started training camp on the PUP list. The team reportedly believes he will be able to practice in a few weeks, suggesting there is no doubt that Hall will be ready for Week 1. However, things can quickly change in the NFL. Furthermore, his health isn’t the only concern. The Jets recently brought Dalvin Cook in for a visit. Whether it’s the former Viking or another veteran, New York likely will add a veteran to the backfield. More importantly, running backs tend to struggle coming off a torn ACL. Hall has too many red flags attached to his name.

Dalton Kincaid (BUF): ADP 132.7 | TE14

Everyone loves to find this year’s sleeper tight end. Last year there were a few popular names. However, fantasy players shouldn’t expect Kincaid to be that guy or have consistent value as a rookie. The former Utah star has been the talk of training camp on social media, with multiple highlights and conversations about his versatility. Unfortunately, that won’t result in a top-12 fantasy finish this season.

Over the past 12 years, there have been only two tight ends to finish their rookie year as a TE1. Those two are Kyle Pitts (TE7) in 2021 and Evan Engram (TE6) in 2017. Furthermore, those two rookies combined to average only 8.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. More importantly, Kincaid won’t see the target volume as those two rookies. Pitts had 110 targets, while Engram had 115. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis combined for a 43% target share last year. Unless one of the veteran wide receivers misses significant time, Kincaid will struggle to outperform his ADP.