The first game in Week 4 is an early-season battle for the top of the NFC North standings. The Lions and Packers are 2-1, sandwiching wins around narrow defeats in Week 2. Both are navigating injuries but might get critical players back for this contest, and the suggested options feature a few players who are likely game-time decisions. So, gamers must pay attention to inactives.
Game: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Spread: DET -1.5
Over/Under: 46.0 Points
Lions Analysis: The knee-biter jokes have disappeared, but Dan Campbell's team has taken on his hard-nosed image. According to RotoViz's pace app, Detroit has passed on only 52% of their 149 plays in a neutral game script. Thus, they've run on 48% of them.
The matchup shouldn't deter Campbell and the offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, from leaning on their rushing attack. Green Bay's opponents have rushed on 47% of their 123 plays in a neutral game script this season.
David Montgomery is seemingly trending toward returning this week, which would take a bite out of Jahmyr Gibbs's value. Nevertheless, both play different roles in Detroit's offense and can be used together or separately on showdown lineups.
The matchup isn't too shabby for Detroit's running backs on the ground and a boon for their value through the air. According to The 33rd Team, Green Bay has allowed 100 rushing yards per game at 4.2 yards per carry to running back this year. In addition, running backs have smashed them through the air, averaging 6.7 receptions and 49.7 receiving yards per game against the Packers. Gibbs, salary considered, is the most exciting piece of Detroit's offense, but Montgomery has touchdown potential and would benefit from a positive game script.
Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are also stellar choices, even considering Jared Goff's mediocre road numbers. The Sun God has a 26.2% target share, 21 receptions (7.0 per game), 275 receiving yards (91.7 per game) and one touchdown this year. He also showed no signs of his toe issue slowing him down last week, torching the Falcons for 102 receiving yards and four rushing yards on 11 targets, nine receptions and one rush. ARSB is the highest-ceiling and the highest-floor player from the Lions.
LaPorta is more affordable and a critical part of Detroit's passing attack. He's destroying any notion of rookie tight ends being incapable of hitting the ground running in the NFL. LaPorta has a 21.4% target share, 18 receptions (6.0 per game), 186 receiving yards (62.0 per game) and one touchdown reception this season, all the second most on the Lions.
The rookie tight end's matchup isn't too shabby, either. Tight ends have averaged 5.0 receptions and 45.0 receiving yards per game with one touchdown against the Packers in 2023.
Packers Analysis: The Packers have attempted to use a balanced attack when possible. This year, they have a 52% pass rate and a 48% rush rate on 109 plays in a neutral game script. However, the Lions are difficult to run against, and their opponents have opted to take to the air. Detroit's opponents have passed on 64% of 157 plays in a neutral game script this year.
Will Matt LaFleur allow Jordan Love to sling it more frequently this week? Maybe. LaFleur might have used a balanced attack to allow Love to get his feet wet through three weeks. However, it also might have been due to Christian Watson's absence, Romeo Doubs playing through a hamstring issue in Week 2 and Aaron Jones missing the previous two contests.
Decisions on Jones and Watson playing might come down to the wire, but both have the requisite explosiveness to warrant DFS usage, even if the NFL insiders report they'll be eased into action or on a pitch count.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Watson's 2.26 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) last year were the eighth-most among rookie wideouts targeted at least 30 times since 2013. Watson was targeted on 24.1% of his routes last year and hauled in 18 of 36 targets that traveled at least 10 air yards last year for 416 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Again, Watson can help DFS teams, even on a limited number of snaps.
In the only contest that Jones played this year, he did it all, rushing for 41 yards and a touchdown on nine rushes and hauling in two receptions for 86 yards and a touchdown on 16 routes and four targets.
The Lions have held running backs to 2.9 yards per carry this year. Yet, they've been less imposing defending running backs through the air, allowing them 5.0 receptions and 39.0 receiving yards per game. Thus, gamers shouldn't write Jones off for a DFS-friendly showing this week.
The return of Watson or Jones, or ideally both, would be fantastic for Love's outlook. Still, the inexperienced quarterback has flashed potential, albeit with lackluster accuracy. Given his lack of weapons to this point, the regression might not be as swift as his advanced stats suggest.
Love has averaged 218.3 passing yards per game and tossed seven touchdowns versus only one interception. His athleticism has also allowed him to average 24.7 rushing yards per game. Therefore, Love is an excellent selection.
Luke Musgrave and Jayden Reed are steals on this slate. Musgrave has 11 receptions, 124 receiving yards and a 10.9-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in his rookie campaign. He also has the softest matchup in this game. The Lions have permitted the most receptions per game (8.3), receiving yards per game (87.7) and one touchdown to tight ends this year despite avoiding Travis Kelce in Week 1.
According to PFF, Reed is third on the Packers in routes (74). However, he's tied for the team lead in targets (20), third in receptions (nine), first in receiving yards (148) and second in receiving touchdowns (two). Reed has thrived as Green Bay's slot wide receiver, and the Lions have allowed more fantasy points to slot wideouts than perimeter wide receivers.
Final Thoughts: There are a few intriguing options for the Captain/MVP spot, headlined by Love and followed by Gibbs, Montgomery, Reed and Musgrave. Since I'm fading Goff, I'm less inclined to use ARSB or LaPorta as the Captain/MVP. Although, they're also decent picks for that role.
As stated above, Gibbs and Montgomery play the same position but different roles. So they can be used together. Finally, balanced lineups are my favorite construction type for this slate.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
