let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 4, to prepare for success in Week 5. The Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings Forecast featuring Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets.
Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 5 slate.
For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 4’s action…
My NFL Week 3 Fantasy Football…
Rapid Reactions?
And Major Takeaways?
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 2, 2023
Along with snap counts…
Week 4 Fantasy Football Snap Counts
To prepare your fantasy team for Week 5…
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 2, 2023
Note the bye weeks for Week 5:
- Cleveland Browns
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Seattle Seahawks
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
And stay ahead of the game for Week 6 bye weeks:
- Green Bay Packers
- Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Football Forecast
Cincinnati Bengals
Buy Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, Add Tyler Boyd
Another tough day at the office for the Bengals offense. Joe Burrow was held under 170 passing yards. Joe Mixon rushed for 67 yards on 14 carries (1 target) but maintained his alpha usage. 79% snap share. Remains a trade-for target as one of the few three-down RBs remaining in fantasy football. Attainable with the negative stigma surrounding Cincy.
Ja’Marr Chase finished with 7 for 73 on a team-high 9 targets (33% target share). Tee Higgins left the game with an injury that was later reported as rib fracture. Tyler Boyd was second with 7 targets (4 for 26). But he also led the team in air yards (56%, 71).
Trenton Irwin picked up the majority of snaps and routes in Higgins’ absence.
If they can’t get going versus the Cardinals and Seahawks in the next two weeks, it might be over the Bengals.
I still think Chase is worth buying because he can be a true league-winner if things do improve for Cincy down the stretch. Higgins looks like he is going to miss time, which could potentially put Chase through the roof production-wise. Already this season, Chase owns a 29% target share.
Boyd is a decent fill-in-off waivers if Higgins is out (expected to miss a few weeks). Super concentrated target share expected between Boyd/Chase.
Larger note on Cincy. On the first drive, the offense looked fine. Burrow scrambled early on, the run game was effective versus arguably the best defensive line in the league. Then the Titans absolutely BLASTED Burrow, as their pass rush started to heat up. The Bengals couldn’t generate any explosive plays, that the Titans were able to do on their side of the ball. Game. Set. Match.
Tennessee Titans
Sell Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins, Drop Treylon Burks
Nobody is hotter or colder than the Titans. One week they can’t do anything, the next they just dominate. Derrick Henry got rolling with 122 yards on 22 carries with 1 long rushing TD (1 target, 59% snap share). Also threw a TD at the goal line. Tyjae Spears carried the ball 5 times for 40 yards while adding three catches on 4 targets – but he also still played 53% of the snaps. Spears also ran more routes per usual.
Titans
N Westbrook-Ikhine (WR)| 55 | 83%
C Moore (WR) | 52 | 79%
C Okonkwo (TE) | 43 | 65%
D Henry (RB) | 39 | 59%
T Spears (RB) | 35 | 53%
D Hopkins (WR) | 35 | 53%
T Wesco (TE) | 26 | 39%
J Whyle (TE)| 19 | 29%
C Dowell (WR) | 15 | 23%— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 2, 2023
This one is too easy. Sell high on Henry. Again, as I mentioned at the top. This team is super hot/cold. Sell high while the getting is good. Be afraid of a fierce Colts defensive line in Week 5 on the road. Don’t get things confused. The Titans offensive line is still bad. Bad Ols don’t travel.
And note that Henry’s usage is still nowhere near where it was last season with Spears threatening his total workload. Spears is part of the offensive game plan every week.
No Treylon Burks (who can be dropped), but the target share remained flat.
DeAndre Hopkins led with 6 and 63 yards, second was Nick Westbrook-Ikhine with 5 for 51 on 6 targets (23% target share). Hopkins is not playing a full allotment of snaps (52% snap share) which could be connected to his missed practice time throughout the week. He finished third in routes run (69%) behind Westbrook and Chris Moore. WR2/3 with no upside due to his lack of juice after the catch. Literally goes down after catching the ball.
Keep this in mind. Hopkins has an elite target share at 28% this season. Averaging 4.5 catches for 54 yards and zero TDs. Floor PPR player every week. Good matchups the next few weeks, but his long-term upside is super capped. The Colts and Ravens are up next.
TE Chigoziem Okonkwo did nothing with his additional opportunities with Burks out. 12% target share. 3 for 29. Drop.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buy Chris Godwin, Sell Mike Evans, Hold Rachaad White
The Buccaneers’ offensive attack primarily revolved around quarterback Baker Mayfield, who was efficient with 25 completions out of 32 attempts for 246 yards and three touchdowns. Mayfield spread the ball effectively among his targets, with Chris Godwin being his favorite, securing 8 receptions for 114 yards. Deven Thompkins and Mike Evans also contributed significantly with 4 catches for 45 yards and 3 catches for 40 yards, respectively. Evans left early with a hamstring injury. Thompkins did not play the most snaps after the Evans injury. Trey Palmer (75% snap share) ran a route on nearly 80% of the dropbacks. Thompkins was around 61%.
Godwin blew up with Evans out, and Mayfield has shown he can support at least one fantasy WR every single week. Buy Godwin now, with the TD regression calling his name. Only receiver this year with 7-plus red-zone targets and zero TDs.
Cade Otton (100% snap share) added another touchdown reception to his name. 3 for 13 on 4 targets.
On the ground, the Buccaneers deployed a committee of running backs more than we have seen in previous weeks. Rachaad White led the rushing attack with 15 carries for 56 yards (70% snap share), while Ke’Shawn Vaughn saw some action going 9 for 16 (1 target). 5 carries in the 4th quarter. White still was the preferred pass-catcher with 3 catches for 22 yards (3 targets), while running a route on 79% of dropbacks.
White remains a hold due to his consistent workload and the fact that nobody else behind him on the depth chart is any good. He also just got really unlucky in terms of TDs in Week 4, going 0-for-6 on his red-zone attempts. A total of seven red-zone touches altogether.
Bye Week in Week 5, then the Lions’ newly found tough run defense and Falcons up next Weeks 6-7.
Note that the buy week gives Evans a better chance of returning, but don’t be overly optimistic. Older player + hamstring injury usually doesn’t end well.
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